After a busy offseason in the NFL, there are plenty of faces in new places heading into the 2023 season.

Today, let's look at one of those -- New York Giants tight end Darren Waller, who joined the team in a trade from the Las Vegas Raiders in March and is expected to be one of the first seven tight ends taken in fantasy drafts this year.

What is Waller's fantasy football outlook for 2023?

Darren Waller Fantasy Football Projection

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 56.80 points
2023 Projected Points: 97.23 points
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: TE7
2023 Projected Stats:

• 100 targets
• 68 receptions
• 730 yards
• 4.1 touchdowns

Darren Waller 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

A Difficult Two-Year Stretch in Las Vegas

Waller had his breakout season in 2019 when he hauled in 90 of 117 targets for 1,145 yards and 3 touchdowns. He followed that up with an even better campaign in 2020, catching 107 of 145 targets for 1,196 yards and 9 touchdowns. Since then, things have been moving in the wrong direction.

Over his final two seasons in Las Vegas, Waller missed 14 games due to hamstring and knee injuries. His targets per game, receptions per game, and yards per game have declined each season since 2020. Last year, he posted a Pro Football Focus offense grade (72.4) and receiving grade (74.5) well below his marks from his career-best season (86.5 and 90.9, respectively). The missed games have hurt his bottom-line production, of course, but even when he's been on the field, Waller has failed to recapture the efficiency and impact he displayed in 2019 and 2020.

As a result, the Raiders traded Waller to the Giants this offseason for a third-round draft pick.

The question for the Giants -- and for fantasy football drafters -- is what version of Waller will we see moving forward? The dominant pass-catching weapon that finished second to only Travis Kelce in receptions, yards, and touchdowns among tight ends in 2019, or the inconsistent contributor who has finished no better than TE19 while battling through injuries the past two years?

Potential Changes in 2023

After his move to New York, Waller immediately becomes the focal point of the Giants' passing offense.

Before Davante Adams arrived in Las Vegas, Waller held a similar spot in the Raiders' offense, and, at times, he thrived in that role. Outside of Waller, the Giants' pass-catching group consists of several inconsistent options -- Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Isaiah Hodgins, Sterling Shepard, Wan'Dale Robinson, and rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt.

If Waller can stay healthy, his volume in New York should not be an issue due to lack of target competition. Waller is already reportedly quarterback Daniel Jones' "favorite target" in training camp and is "carving out a major role" in the offense. That was the expected outcome following the Giants' decision to part with legitimate draft capital to bring Waller in, but it's still a great sign that his integration into the offense is off to an excellent start.

If the volume is secure -- and Waller stays healthy -- he should have a high floor for fantasy football. To reach a higher ceiling, he will likely need to become a dominant red zone weapon. Even in a career-best performance last season, Jones tied Matt Ryan for the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) in the NFL (6.5) among 41 eligible signal-callers. It was the lowest aDOT of Jones' career, but it resulted in him finally cutting down on the turnovers that had plagued his first three seasons in the league.

It's possible Jones pushes the ball further down the field in his second year under head coach Brian Daboll, but that's a risky assumption to count on. For Waller, that limits some of his seam stretching potential and will require top-notch efficiency in the red zone to account for the decreased potential for big plays.

Another risk for Waller is the possibility for defenses to key in on him if the Giants' other pass-catchers fail to improve. Defenses may dare Jones to throw to anyone else and try to take the QB out of his comfort zone of shorter passes to Waller. If the Giants' pass=catchers can provide just enough of a threat to keep defenses honest, it will likely boost Waller's outlook this season.

Where Is Waller Being Drafted?

Waller is currently the 6th tight end coming off the board in FanDuel's best-ball contests. Per FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, Waller is the TE7 and 67th overall.

Selecting Walker at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers such as Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett , running backs such as Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco, and tight end Dallas Goedert.

Waller checks out pretty favorably when you compare him to those players.

Godwin is an established fantasy producer but is dealing with uncertainty at quarterback following Tom Brady's decision to retire. Lockett is a perennially undervalued wide receiver but will have even more target competition with the arrival of rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Pacheco is coming off an impressive rookie season, but Jerick McKinnon has an established pass-catching role that could limit Pacheco's ceiling. White had a decent rookie year, but he could be stuck in a miserable offense unless Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield play well.

Goedert is a talented pass-catcher in an elite offense, but with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith around ,he has almost no path to seeing the kind of volume Waller could get in New York.

Final Verdict

Waller's outlook this season is not without risk, but the majority of that risk is health-related. If he can stay healthy, he is likely being drafted at or near his floor. He has extremely limited target competition and should operate as the primary option in New York's passing game.

That level of consistent volume is valuable at the tight end position, where many players are inconsistent from week to week and are too reliant on touchdowns. While Jones' limitations and the Giants' offense as a whole will likely prevent Waller from rejoining the elites at tight end (Kelce and Mark Andrews), Waller is capable of living up to his ADP -- or surpassing it.

Like Kelce and Andrews, he is expected to be the focal point of his team's passing offense as a tight end. His overall offensive environment and quarterback play are suspect, but Waller's ADP accounts for that.

Waller's ability to stay on the field remains a concern, but that's a concern that is impossible to ever fully escape with any player in fantasy football. In this case, you are getting a discounted draft position for that injury risk, and Waller is well worth a selection in the middle of the sixth round.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.