Daily Strikeout Leader: Dylan Cease Has the Upside and Matchup

Each day on FanDuel Sportsbook, there is no shortage of MLB odds to sift through, and you're likely familiar with a lot of them. That includes strikeout props, which are entertaining because they add importance to each pitch.

FanDuel Sportsbook has cranked that up a few notches with its daily strikeout leader market. Not only do you need your guys to rack up Ks -- you need them to get more punchouts than any of the day's other starting pitchers.

Here are today's odds in that market.

The Top Dog

Gerrit Cole (+350) is the clear favorite today.

He's taking on the Detroit Tigers, so the matchup is about as good as it gets. The Tigers' active roster has the second-worst wOBA (.297) versus righties along with the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.4%) in the split. Cole just faced Detroit in his last start and punched out seven over six innings.

Now for the negatives.

Cole hasn't been the same high-strikeout pitcher in 2023. Across 174 innings, he's pitched to a 27.1% K rate and 11.7% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers were at 32.9% and 14.5%, respectively, across the three prior seasons. And +350 is a pretty short number for a market like this one.

All in all, Cole should be the favorite, but I'm going to be looking elsewhere.

Two Quality Alternatives

Rather than take a shot on Cole, I prefer to roll the dice on Brandon Woodruff (+650) and Dylan Cease (+950) at bigger numbers. Both have sweet matchups.

Woodruff is at the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team whose active roster owns the 10th-highest K rate (23.5%) against righties. With a 32.2% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging-strike rate, Woodruff has better swing-and-miss numbers than Cole does, and he fanned nine in his lone previous meeting with Pittsburgh this season.

With Cease, you never know what you're going to get, but that volatility makes him a fun bet in this market because he has elite K upside when he's on.

Cease hasn't flashed that top-shelf upside very much lately, punching out more than seven in only two of his past 11 starts. But the stage is set for him to be able to go deeper into the game than he usually does thanks to a matchup with the Kansas City Royals, an offense that has baseball's lowest walk rate (5.5%) versus right-handers along with the sixth-worst wOBA (.306). That low walk rate is a big deal given Cease's 10.7% walk rate.

Listed at +950, Cease is a very intriguing bet.

What Else Is Out There?

Among the rest of the options, Tanner Bibee (+1200) and Brandon Pfaadt (+1400) catch my eye.

Bibee gets the Minnesota Twins, whose 27.4% K rate against righties is the MLB's highest clip. The matchup alone puts Bibee on the radar, but Bibee also brings good numbers to the table, recording a 24.2% strikeout rate and 11.0% swinging-strike rate.

Pfaadt, another rookie, has been much better in his second trip to the bigs, posting a 22.8% K rate since being recalled. He's got a 24.3% strikeout rate over his last six starts, with four of those outings coming against either the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres. Tonight, Pfaadt will see the Colorado Rockies, the offense with the second-highest strikeout rate (26.5%) versus righties. He could deliver the best start of his young career.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.