Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 17
Sunday's main slate brings with it 13 games, and slates don't get much fuller than that.
But not every game will be close or high-scoring, and there are some players with massive upside, so we have a lot to sift through.
Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 17 FanDuel main slate.
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Rush D Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SF | @WSH | 31 | -12.5 | 49.5 | 31 | 31 | 24 |
PHI | ARI | 29.25 | -10.5 | 48.0 | 32 | 32 | 28 |
BUF | NE | 26 | -11.5 | 40.5 | 12 | 22 | 1 |
KC | CIN | 25.75 | -7.0 | 44.5 | 28 | 26 | 31 |
BAL | MIA | 25.25 | -3.5 | 47.0 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
LA | @NYG | 24.5 | -4.5 | 44.5 | 20 | 16 | 19 |
IND | LV | 23.5 | -3.5 | 43.5 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
FanDuel Salary: $9,200
Matchup: vs. ARI
While the Philadelphia Eagles have a playoff spot clinched, they have a lot of seeding to play for, and via the New York Times, they'd have around a 56% chance to be the 2 seed with a win this week.
That puts the spotlight on Jalen Hurts again.
Hurts squares up with a Arizona Cardinals team that is now ranked 32nd in adjusted pass defense, via numberFire's metrics.
Hurts has played only one team worse than 23rd in adjusted pass defense (the Washington Commanders -- twice). In those games, he has averaged 319.0 yards and 3.0 touchdowns with off-the-charts efficiency.
Additionally, Hurts has 15 rushing touchdowns, and the Cardinals are 29th in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry allowed to quarterbacks, via NextGenStats.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $7,900
Matchup: vs. MIA
Lamar Jackson steps up into another game of the week contender after an elite showing against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night in Week 16.
The Miami Dolphins rank fifth in adjusted pass defense, so the matchup itself could be much easier. Jackson has averaged 19.2 FanDuel points per game in four matchups with top-10 opponents. He's gotten there with 221.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game plus 7.8 carries, 37.8 yards, and 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
More specifically, Jackson has had outputs of 28.14, 10.94, 15.02, and 22.58 in such games -- a wide range.
The salary accounts for some of the downside potential, and it's unlikely that the Baltimore Ravens will take their foot off the gas in this matchup, which would lock up the 1 seed for Baltimore.
Others to Consider
Josh Allen ($8,800 vs. New England Patriots) - 24.0 fantasy points, 29.3 rushing yards, and 1.2 rushing TDs in six matchups with pass Ds 20th or worse.
Justin Fields ($8,200 vs. Atlanta Falcons) - ATL is 32nd in RYOE per carry allowed to QBs, and the Chicago Bears are eliminated with a loss.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 vs. Cincinnati Bengals) - 280.0 yards and 1.6 TDs per game against pass Ds 24th or worse; Cincinnati is 32nd in aDOT allowed, too.
Matthew Stafford ($7,500 at New York Giants) - 259.8 yards and 2.4 TDs per game since the bye; huge playoff implications this week.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams, Rams
FanDuel Salary: $9,400
Matchup: at NYG
Kyren Williams is more than just a consolation from Christian McCaffrey in a matchup with the Giants.
The Los Angeles Rams aren't eliminated with a loss but have 87% odds to make the postseason with a win and 26% odds to make it with a loss, via NextGenStats. This game matters.
Williams, since returning in Week 12, has played 60.6%, 93.5%, 89.0%, 76.7%, and 79.1% of the Rams' snaps. Even with that limited snap game in his return, Williams has averaged 22.2 carries and 4.4 targets for 137.6 scrimmage yards with a dominant 47.9% red zone opportunity share.
The Giants are 28th in RYOE per carry as well as 22nd in rushing success rate allowed to RBs this season.
Rachaad White, Buccaneers
FanDuel Salary: $7,900
Matchup: vs. NO
Once again, I like Rachaad White.
He is coming off of a 20-carry, 7-target game for just 77 total yards but with 7 red zone carries and 1 red zone target.
He's played on 79.2% of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' snaps on the full season, and the 68.5% snap rate from last week was his lowest all year -- but it came in a game where the Bucs were up 20-0 at the half.
James Cook, Bills
FanDuel Salary: $7,600
Matchup: vs. NE
James Cook earned more snaps after his breakout game in Week 15.
He had a 73.1% snap rate last week, though the workload (20 carries and 0 targets) led to only 70 total yards and no touchdowns.
He did get 2 of 9 red zone carries but lost 4 of them to Leonard Fournette. That is factored into his salary, though, and the Buffalo Bills really need this game.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs
FanDuel Salary: $7,200
Matchup: vs. CIN
Isiah Pacheco has been dealing with a concussion but cleared concussion protocol and will play. Meanwhile, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was potentially slotting into a featured role, is actually questionable with an illness.
So, while it looked like CEH was going to be a featured back without Pacheco (and with Jerick McKinnon on injured reserve), it could actually be Pacheco without McKinnon and CEH in line for the lion's share against the Bengals' 31st-ranked adjusted rush defense.
In 11 games with at least a 50.0% snap rate this season, Pacheco has averaged 80.2 scrimmage yards on 14.9 carries and 3.2 targets with a 33.7% overall red zone share. But he typically cedes high-leverage work to McKinnon (and occasionally to Edwards-Helaire).
Last week, Edwards-Helaire finished with a 39.7% snap rate after Pacheco exited at 56.2%, and with Pacheco out in Weeks 14 and 15, CEH played 48.4% and 60.7% of the snaps with McKinnon active.
Across these three games in a timeshare, Edwards-Helaire has averaged 9.3 carries and 3.7 targets for 72.3 scrimmage yards with a decent 18.2% red zone opportunity share.
Others to Consider
Christian McCaffrey ($11,000 at Washington Commanders) - Played every snap last week and still building an MVP case; just hard to build around at $11,000.
Saquon Barkley ($7,800 vs. Los Angeles Rams) - Elite role remained last week (89.8% snap rate) including 6 targets to help with game-script concerns.
De'Von Achane ($6,900 at Baltimore Ravens) - Raheem Mostert is out, thus paving the way for a featured role for Achane.
Devin Singletary ($6,600 vs. Tennessee Titans) - 67.9% snap rate in the first half last week plus 7 of 10 RB carries; script got away from them.
Zamir White ($6,100 at Indianapolis Colts) - 115.0 scrimmage yards per game without Josh Jacobs the past two weeks.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
FanDuel Salary: $9,800
Matchup: at BAL
Tyreek Hill needs 324 yards to break the all-time single-season receiving record (162.0 per game). The Ravens have let up six 100-yard games this season to some of the bigger names they've faced, and they rank around the NFL average in aDOT allowed to receivers.
Hill bounced back in his return to action last week with 14 targets (8 of which were 10-plus yards downfield) for 99 yards and 161 air yards -- including a costly drop on a deep ball.
With Jaylen Waddle banged up, Hill should see as much volume as he can handle -- both from deep targets and underneath looks.
Interestingly, the Ravens have seen a league-high 39 end zone targets to WRs (no other team has more than 33) but have let up just 7 scores on those (17.9%). The league-average rate is 37.1%, and while Baltimore's a great defense, some regression should hit eventually.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Matchup: at WSH
It's easy to overlook Brandon Aiyuk at this point, but a lot points to big-game potential. Firstly, the matchup is there; Washington ranks 31st in adjusted pass defense this season.
And in 12 games with the team's Big Four active, Aiyuk leads the way with a 23.9% target share.
He also hasn't scored in three straight games after a four-game touchdown streak.
With this game mattering a lot for the 49ers, blowout risk is lessened, as well.
Chris Olave, Saints
FanDuel Salary: $7,400
Matchup: at TB
The Saints need a win or else they're eliminated from playoff contention, so the offense should continue to flow through Chris Olave, who got forced 13 targets for 123 yards last week. Of those 13 targets, 6 of them traveled at least 10 yards downfield.
The Buccaneers are 30th in yards per route run allowed to wideouts this year, and in their first meeting, he was held to 4 yards on 6 targets.
The film, though, showed a lot of production was there if the throws were better. He had a catch rate over expectation of -38.2% and 148 air yards.
Zay Flowers, Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $6,300
Matchup: vs. MIA
Zay Flowers got back on track last week after a down week in Week 15 when he had an 8.7% target share. Last week, he was the focal point of 38.2% of the Ravens' targets, and he turned those 13 targets into 72 yards and a touchdown.
The Dolphins are a good overall defense but do rank 28th in catch rate over expectation allowed to wideouts.
The salary is hard to pass up for Flowers here.
Others to Consider
Puka Nacua ($7,900 at New York Giants) - Still a big TD regression candidate; 21.1% target share or better in every single game.
Rashee Rice ($7,400 vs. Cincinnati Bengals) - 28.4% target share (10.0 per game) since a Week 12 role expansion; great matchup.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,700 at Houston Texans) - Dome matchup against a bad secondary (27th).
Curtis Samuel ($5,700 vs. San Francisco 49ers) - Single-game shares of 27.3%, 22.7%, 26.5%, and 18.8% over past four games with 40.0% red zone share.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely, Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $6,000
Matchup: vs. MIA
Isaiah Likely sets up against a Dolphins defense that is mostly middling against tight ends in a game that could be high-scoring.
Likely, since taking over as the Ravens' full-time tight end in Week 12, has an 18.1% target share (5.8 per game) for 62.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
The aDOT is low (5.7), yet he still averages 1.8 downfield targets per game in that span.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles
FanDuel Salary: $5,800
Matchup: vs. ARI
The Cardinals are now the league's worst adjusted pass defense, and those trends largely transfer over to tight ends. Against TEs, Arizona ranks 29th in aDOT and 20th in yards per route run while also sitting 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target.
Dallas Goedert returned to a 14.8% target share in his first game but has since been at 30.0% and 25.0% over the past two games.
He has a 28.6% red zone target share and 50.0% of the team's end zone targets in that three-week span.
Others to Consider
Travis Kelce ($7,800 vs. Cincinnati Bengals) - Hasn't scored in five straight games despite a 25.0% red zone share in that split.
George Kittle ($6,700 at Washington Commanders) - Reminded us of yardage upside last week; Commanders are 23rd in CROE allowed to TEs.
Defenses
Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Salary: $3,600
Matchup: at CHI
The Atlanta Falcons rate out as the best value defense of the week for me.
They face the Chicago Bears, who are still alive in the playoff race for now. Justin Fields still has a 10.0% sack rate on the season, up from the league average of 7.1%.
Atlanta is a good overall rush defense and also sits top 10 in CPOE and success rate allowed.
Others to Consider
Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600 vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Denver Broncos ($3,700 vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
Carolina Panthers ($3,400 at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Be sure to check out all of the Week 17 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.