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Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 7

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula•@gdula13

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Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 7

Just like last week, weather is impacting a lot of games on the main slate, and that tends to mean worse offensive efficiency.

The over/unders for a lot of games reflect that, so we'll once again have to account for weather when building lineups.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 7 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Team
Opponent
Implied Total
Spread
Over/Under
Opp D Rank
Opp Pass D Rank
Opp Rush D Rank
KCLAC27-5.548.5232422
SEAARI26-7.544.5313025
BUF@NE25-8.541.512206
GB@DEN23.25-1.545.0323228
LAPIT23.25-3.043.56227
BALDET22.75-3.042.510115
DENGB21.751.545.0211631

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: vs. Detroit Lions

The wind is projected to be up in this matchup, but it's still one of the best games on the board.

Lamar Jackson has just two games with both Mark Andrews and Odell Beckham active this season. In them, he has averaged 232.0 yards on 33.7 attempts with 1.0 passing touchdowns.

His EPA per drop back over opponent expectation is a 0.00, so he's played to the level of opponent, which is viable when tied to a 54.7% passing success rate.

In these matchups, he's still averaged 10.3 rushes and 53.7 yards per game on the ground with a 34.8% red zone rushing share.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: vs. Arizona Cardinals

Geno Smith owns the best floor-versus-ceiling projection in my simulation model, which accounts for projection, matchup, salary, and more.

Smith's up against a bottom-five pass defense, the Arizona Cardinals. They're allowing a CPOE (completion rate over expectation) that ranks 29th in the league, too.

Smith's only matchup against a pass defense worse than 20th came in Week 4 when he played only 66.7% of the Seahawks' snaps, so this is the best spot we've seen him in yet this year.

He's once again playing above expectation in terms of EPA, so let's rock.

Others to Consider

Patrick Mahomes ($9,200 vs. Los Angeles Chargers) - Game of the week and easy to roster with value options at RB.

Justin Herbert ($8,300 at Kansas City Chiefs) - The QB2 in the game of the week is usually appealing -- Herbert especially so.

Matthew Stafford ($6,700 vs. PIT) - Pittsburgh Steelers can give up some passing; two easy stack candidates with him.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Salary: $9,400
Matchup: at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers-Chiefs game is the game of the week by a pretty decent margin.

Kansas City ranks 29th in EPA per carry allowed to running backs, via numberFire's model, and they're also 26th in opponent-adjusted FanDuel points per target allowed to backs.

Austin Ekeler returned to a big workload in Week 6: a 70.5% snap rate for 14 carries and 6 targets. He totaled only 62 scrimmage yards and had a CROE of -16.8%. There's a lot more room for growth there.

Ekeler also saw 40.0% of the team's red zone carries plus targets.

Isiah Pacheco

FanDuel Salary: $7,400
Matchup: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Isiah Pacheco's snap rate has stabilized in the 60% to 65% range in the past three games. While that's usually a bit light for a priority running back play historically, snap rates are down at the position overall, and this week is light on backs as it is.

Pacheco, then, has one of the better roles at the position and is tied to a great offense.

The Chargers are just an average rush defense, and Pacheco is getting receiving work, too.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Salary: $6,200
Matchup: at Baltimore Ravens

A few obvious value backs stand out this week. Jahmyr Gibbs still has some question marks, so let's see if we can get some details on his expected workload throughout the week.

Gibbs should be freed up with David Montgomery likely out this week. Craig Reynolds saw a lot of work last week while Gibbs missed. Reynolds didn't practice on Wednesday.

Gibbs, though, has an elite 49.8% opportunity-per-snap rate. That ranks him fifth among backs averaging at least 25.0 snaps per game. With a bigger workload, he should rack up good opportunities.

Others to Consider

Josh Jacobs ($8,000 at Chicago Bears) - 80%-plus snap rate in four of six games; phenomenal matchup.

Rachaad White ($6,100 vs. Atlanta Falcons) - Low-water snap rate of 70.1% this season; ATL is a tough matchup -- but salary is low.

Royce Freeman ($4,100 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) - Expected to split time with Darrell Henderson, but that's accounted for in a near-minimum salary. Freeman could get you upside stacks throughout the lineup.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Kupp FanDuel Salary: $9,700
Nacua FanDuel Salary: $7,300
Matchup: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

In two games with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, both Kupp and Puka Nacua have been absolutely peppered by Matthew Stafford.

Kupp has a 38.2% target share (10.5 targets per game) in that span and is averaging 133.0 yards per contest. He's also been targeted on 42.9% of the team's red zone targets -- plus 40.0% of their end zone targets.

For Nacua in that split, he's at a 32.7% target share, 28.6% red zone share, and 40.0% end zone share.

They're clearly the main guys for LA, and the Steelers are letting up a top-two target-per-route rate to the position. Volume should be there for sure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Salary: $8,200
Matchup: at Baltimore Ravens

Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 30.3% target share in his five active games. That's worked out to 10.0 targets and 91.0 yards per game.

The red zone opportunity share (11.8% of total carries and targets) is low but should get better with David Montgomery likely out for this week.

St. Brown has a 46.2% target share in the red zone, so more passes near the goal line would be both logical and great news for St. Brown.

The Ravens' stats against WRs look really good, but they've faced a league-high 15 end zone targets to receivers and allowed just 2 touchdowns on them. That 13.3% rate should regress (league average is 34.6%).

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Matchup: at Denver Broncos

Christian Watson is part of a loaded mid-tier at receiver this week.

His routes scaled up to 84.4% before the Week 6 bye (after a sub-50% in his debut). Watson earned a 24.1% target share in that Week 5 game, as well.

As for this week, it's an elite matchup against a Broncos squad that is allowing a league-high +11.0% CROE to opposing WRs.

Watson is sixth among main-slate receivers in air yards per game even with one of his two games coming with limited routes.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Salary: $6,300
Matchup: vs. Detroit Lions

Zay Flowers has a 24.0% target share in three games with Odell Beckham and Mark Andrews both active, and that comes with an 11.7-yard aDOT.

He's averaging 4.0 downfield targets (10-plus air yards) and a 26.7% red zone share even while sharing the field with two other key pass-catchers.

The Lions' defense is letting up a top-six aDOT to WRs, so you have to love the potential at this salary -- even with wind in the forecast.

Others to Consider

Tyler Lockett ($6,800 vs. Arizona Cardinals) - At least a 20.0% target share in four straight games.

Marquise Brown ($6,700 at Seattle Seahawks) - 24.4% target share or better in all but one game; 5th among main-slate WRs in air yards per game.

Josh Palmer ($6,500 at Kansas City Chiefs) - Ran every route last week and had 7 targets.

Kendrick Bourne ($5,800 vs. Buffalo Bills) - Routes are back up the past two games; easy bring-back option for Bills differentiation stacks.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Salary: $6,900
Matchup: vs. Detroit Lions

In three games shared with Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham, Mark Andrews has a 24.0% target share and a 20.0% red zone target share.

Notably, he's averaging 3.0 downfield targets per game and has a catch rate over expectation of -6.6%. Things should get better soon on a per-target basis.

The Lions are letting up a CROE of +6.3% to opposing tight ends, and that's with Detroit avoiding Travis Kelce in the opening week.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Matchup: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of six teams in the NFL with a top-10 adjusted rush defense (via numberFire's metrics) but a below-average adjusted pass defense.

The Atlanta Falcons remain the most run-heavy team in football, based on pass rate over expectation, but they probably can't just run into a wall all game long this week.

Kyle Pitts holds a 19.4% target share and gets a matchup versus a team that is allowing a top-10 target-per-route rate to tight ends.

Others to Consider

Travis Kelce ($8,500 vs. Los Angeles Chargers) - Chargers are tough against TEs, but Kelce is Kelce and projects well regardless.

Luke Musgrave ($5,000 at Denver Broncos) - Routes jumped back up in Week 5 and is now coming out of a bye with more prep.

Defenses

Washington Commanders

FanDuel Salary: $4,600
Matchup: at New York Giants

The Washington Commanders have had three games with 10-plus FanDuel points and three with 2 or fewer points, but the ability to get to double-digits stems from havoc plays (3 fumble recoveries and 5 interceptions).

Washington is 11th in pressure rate, which helps them with sack and turnover potential.

The New York Giants' offensive line has the second-worst pass-blocking matchup of the week, via PFF.

New York Giants

FanDuel Salary: $3,400
Matchup: vs. Washington Commanders

On the flip side of that game, we can go with the Giants' D/ST, too.

Sam Howell is prone to sacks (5.7 per game and a 13.7% sack rate). Even though New York is 30th in pressure rate, they can get to Howell.

Howell has averaged 5.3 sacks and a 13.2% sack rate in three matchups against bottom-eight teams by pressure rate.

Others to Consider

Green Bay Packers ($3,900 at Denver Broncos) - An average pass D but weak rush D; top-10 in pressure rate.

Indianapolis Colts ($3,800 vs. Cleveland Browns) - Facing either P.J. Walker or a less-than-100% Deshaun Watson.


Be sure to check out all of the Week 7 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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