Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 5

There are some high-octane matchups slated for Week 5, and a good number of them are on this week's main slate on FanDuel.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 5 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $8,600
Matchup: at LAR

Jalen Hurts is set up well for success in Week 5 and to have a true breakout game -- finally.

Hurts has put up between 21.88 and 26.22 FanDuel points in each of his past three games while throwing for only four touchdowns in that span but rushing for at least 28 yards in each game. The building blocks are there: rushing, yardage, efficiency.

The Rams are letting up 1.40 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) to QBs plus a 52.9% rushing success rate, both bottom-five rates in the NFL.

Additionally, they're 18th in adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Matchup: vs. TEN

The Titans are a clear pass-funnel defense, meaning they are elite against the rush (4th) but weak against the pass (29th).

Of course, a lot of Anthony Richardson's value comes from his rushing, but easier passing is a great sign for the rookie.

Richardson is playing above expectation from an EPA (expected points added) basis once adjusting for opponents faced, and he trails just Lamar Jackson (55.0) in rushing yards per game (43.7) among QBs.

Others to Consider

Patrick Mahomes ($9,200 at MIN) - In a shootout spot with the Vikings.

Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000 vs. NYG) - Average pass D matchup and coming off of a down game.

Kirk Cousins ($7,600 vs. KC) - Chiefs are a top-five pass D but 26th in pressure rate; points should be scored.

Joe Burrow ($7,000 at ARI) - ARI is 30th vs. the pass, and Burrow has faced tough opponents so far.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $8,200
Matchup: vs. HOU

Bijan Robinson has carved out quite the role for himself in the Atlanta offense. Robinson has a 73.8% snap rate through four games, which has led to 13.3 carries and 5.5 targets for 113.0 scrimmage yards per game.

Efficiency-wise, Robinson is averaging 2.28 rushing yards over expectation per carry, per NextGenStats. That's absurd.

Robinson is game-script proof and now faces a bottom-six rush D, via numberFire's metrics.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $7,800
Matchup: vs. PHI

Kyren Williams has played on 82.5% of the Rams' snaps this season. Though he's averaging "only" 75.5 yards per game, he's going to be relied on in a matchup against the Eagles as an underdog.

Williams has averaged 27.3 routes per game (62.3% of the team's drop backs), which has translated to 5.5 targets and 25.3 receiving yards per game.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Matchup: at MIN

Isiah Pacheco just recorded a 63.6% snap rate in Week 4, which was a career-high for him.

In that game, he totaled 158 scrimmage yards on 20 carries and 3 targets and also scored on the ground.

The Vikings rank just 15th against the rush this year, too.

Others to Consider

David Montgomery ($8,500 vs. CAR) - Huge favorite, and Detroit is very run-heavy (and committed to Montgomery).

Joe Mixon ($7,000 at ARI) - 74.6% snap rate on the year.

Breece Hall ($6,500 at DEN) - Snap count is lifted; incredibly efficient this season.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson FanDuel Salary: $9,200
Addison FanDuel Salary: $5,900
Matchup: vs. KC

This game could be a real back-and-forth affair, and that means a path to a huge ceiling for Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson has averaged 11.5 targets, 8.3 catches, and 135.8 yards per game on market shares of 30.5% (targets), 43.3% (air yards), and 27.3% (end zone).

The Chiefs look good against WRs so far this season once adjusting for opponents, but Jefferson is matchup-proof.

Teammate Jordan Addison comes at a much lower salary (naturally) but has carved out a solid presence on the field. He's got a 76.7% route rate since Week 2 and a 13.1% target share -- but 2.7 downfield targets per game in that span.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Salary: $6,800
Matchup: vs. NYG

The salary here makes sense if we look only at the results. Jaylen Waddle has not yet hit 10.5 FanDuel points in any of his three games played. His target totals are 5, 6, and 5, and he has not yet scored.

So, yeah, not great, but other than that, things are good!

He's had 78 and 86 yards in two games, which are strong outputs, and he has a nice aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.4 yards.

He is a bit of an afterthought in the red zone through three games, but that's the only concern and is accounted for in his salary.

He has a big ceiling still with this role and skill set.

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

FanDuel Salary: $6,400
Matchup: vs. CIN

The Marquise Brown returns early on are pretty respectable even with some QB concerns.

Brown has had 10, 7, and 10 targets in his past three games, and he now faces a Bengals team that is allowing the highest aDOT to opposing WRs this season (14.7) by more than a full yard.

Brown has an 11.3-yard aDOT and is averaging 3.0 downfield targets per game (10-plus air yards) and a 41.6% air yards share.

Though there are some safer WR plays, Brown has a ceiling.

Others to Consider

Ja'Marr Chase ($8,700 at ARI) - 36.1% target share in three games last season with Tee Higgins limited.

Chris Olave ($7,100 at NE) - 27.3% target share and great aDOT (13.9 yards).

Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,600 vs. TEN) - Titans are bottom-five in CROE allowed to WRs.

Tank Dell ($6,000 at ATL) - 25.4% target share and getting rushes, too.

Zay Flowers ($5,900 at PIT) - 7.3 targets per game and 94.8% route rate.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $8,789
Matchup: at MIN

The projections for Travis Kelce are hard to gloss over. My model has his odds to get to 15.0 FanDuel points at 53.2% with no other tight end above 25.0%.

Kelce has garnered a 24.8% target share in his three games, which has been 8.7 targets per game. This is on just a 69.4% route rate, as well, and a CROE of -6.0%.

He hasn't really had his full workload yet. There's not a salary discount this week of any kind (maybe $11 depending on your perspective).

The Vikings haven't faced much in the way of great TEs yet, either.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals

FanDuel Salary: $5,100
Matchup: vs. CIN

Zach Ertz is tied with Kelce (24.8%) in target share among TEs on the main slate. That's pretty wild.

Ertz is averaging only 34.0 yards per game and has not yet scored, but he has a healthy (for a tight end) aDOT of 7.3 yards and a 33.3% red zone target share and 25.0% end zone target share.

The Bengals are letting up a +9.7% CROE to tight ends and a 1.62 yards-per-route-run rate (both are bottom-five rates in the league).

Others to Consider

Sam LaPorta ($6,000 vs. CAR) - Fourth among main slate TEs in targets per game (6.8).

Dallas Goedert ($5,500 at LAR) - LA is 29th vs. TEs and Goedert has a -5.7% CROE; should be a solid week.

Kyle Pitts ($5,100 vs. HOU) - Has a -9.5% CROE; Houston is allowing a +11.3% CROE to TEs.

Defenses

Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $3,800
Matchup: vs. TEN

The Titans rank 19th in adjusted passing offense, according to numberFire's metrics, and Ryan Tannehill has a 12.9% sack rate with weak passing efficiency, especially in terms of success rate.

Indianapolis is a solid 14th in pressure rate despite not being a great overall defense. It's a matchup play.

Houston Texans

FanDuel Salary: $3,600
Matchup: at ATL

The Falcons are back in the United States after a poor showing in London. The Texans rank just 24th in adjusted defense, yet the Falcons' offense is 24th offensively, too.

Desmond Ridder has an 11.9% sack rate and an EPA per drop back of -0.33.

Others to Consider

Miami Dolphins ($4,900 vs. NYG) - Giants are 32nd in overall and pass offense; 14.4% sack rate allowed, as well.

New Orleans Saints ($4,000 at NE) - Top-10 pass defense against a bottom-two offense.

Be sure to check out all of the Week 5 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.