Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 4

Two games in particular stand out on this week's main slate. The Buffalo Bills versus the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers versus the Las Vegas Raiders have over/unders are in their own tier compared to the rest of this week's main slate games.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 4 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Matchup: vs. MIA

There are some high-ceiling QBs on the main slate, but you can nitpick a lot of them, whether it's a lack of rushing, tough matchups, or injuries to pass-catchers. Josh Allen doesn't have those concerns, and he's in the best game of the week.

Allen faces a Dolphins squad that is 7th in passing EPA (expected points added) per drop back allowed but 19th in success rate and 26th in completion rate over expectation (CPOE).

The Dolphins haven't really faced any rushing quarterbacks yet this season, either.

Allen's passing metrics (0.13 EPA per drop back and a 52.1% success rate) are on point.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: at BUF

We can also look to Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000) in the same game.

Tua doesn't run much, and that means he's highly dependent on his passing output. But he has games of 466, 249, and 309 passing yards (plus 3, 1, and 4 touchdowns) so far this season.

The Bills' defense does rank 2nd in EPA per drop back allowed but is 9th in success rate allowed and 25th in CPOE allowed.

Others to Consider

Jalen Hurts ($8,800 vs. WSH) - 3 rushing TDs and subpar passing could open up soon.

Kirk Cousins ($7,900 at CAR) - In another spot to rack up yards and touchdowns.

Anthony Richardson ($7,600 vs. LAR) - If cleared, could be a top-three process play in a fun game.

Justin Fields ($7,200 vs. DEN) - Facing 32nd-ranked pass D by EPA/drop back and success rate; Fields averaging 36.3 rushing yards per game.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

FanDuel Salary: $8,200
Matchup: at LAC

Josh Jacobs sets up in an intriguing spot this week as part of a high-scoring game.

Jacobs has not yet scored but is averaging 2.3 red zone carries (63.6% of the Raiders' red zone carries) in addition to 4.7 overall targets per game.

He's played on 80.1% of the team's snaps and has run 60.2% of their routes. No back has averaged those levels over three games.

The Chargers are bottom-five in rushing success rate allowed to opposing backs.

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $7,300
Matchup: vs. LAR

Remember the Jacobs note from above? I added the three-game caveat because Zack Moss has played on 85.0% of the Indianapolis Colts' snaps and ran 63.4% of the routes in his two games.

Moss also has clung to a 71.4% red zone carry share and has averaged 126.0 scrimmage yards.

The Los Angeles Rams will be on a short week, too.

Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Matchup: vs. MIN

The results for Miles Sanders haven't really been there yet. He's had 98, 47, and 62 yards from scrimmage but also 6, 5, and 9 targets.

Targets are really valuable. He just needs to do a bit more with his chances.

His catch rate over expectation (CROE) is -15.6%, and his rushing success rate is a lowly 31.7%.

The Minnesota Vikings' defense can help with that, as they are 24th in rushing success rate allowed to backs.

Others to Consider

Kyren Williams ($7,600 at IND) - Team is committed to Williams; good game to stack.

James Cook ($6,800 vs. MIA) - 58.1% to 60.3% snap rate in each game; ceiling might be a bit low but salary accounts for it in a great game.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400 at DAL) - 70.6% snap rate so far without much production.

De'Von Achane ($6,400 at BUF) - 42.3% snap rate and 233 scrimmage yards last week. Hard to envision he's just second-fiddle.

Javonte Williams ($5,800 at CHI) - In a timeshare but against a subpar rush D.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Salary: $9,400
Matchup: at CAR

There aren't a lot of slam-dunk running backs at high salaries, so that puts Justin Jefferson very much in play once again.

Jefferson has a 98.6% route rate through three games while averaging 9.0 receptions, 12.3 targets, and 152.7 receiving yards per game. He finally scored in Week 3.

The Carolina Panthers have been a very average matchup for receivers, and that's more than fine -- because Jefferson is anything but average.

Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $7,500 (Nacua)
FanDuel Salary: $6,300 (Atwell)
Matchup: at IND

Tutu Atwell had a 9-target Monday night, and on those 9 targets, he put up 50 yards and a touchdown.

Of his 9 targets, 5 of them were at least 10 yards downfield, and 2 of his 9 targets were red zone targets. That extra weight means his 9 targets were more like 13.7 targets, and Atwell's high aDOT (13.0) gives him a lot of juice.

Despite averaging 5.3 fewer targets per game than Puka Nacua (8.7 versus 14.0), he has more air yards per game (113.0) than Nacua (110.5). I probably don't need to sell you on Nacua, who is averaging 14.0 targets per game.

These two are playing indoors, and the Colts are letting up a +4.7% CROE to WRs.

Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Matchup: vs. LV

Mike Williams is out for the season with a torn ACL, so someone will need to step up alongside Keenan Allen in this passing offense.

Last season in games with one of Williams or Allen limited, Josh Palmer was typically the guy to do so.

In 12 games with one of those two limited, Palmer had an 18.9% target share (7.7 per game) for 53.6 yards per game. It wasn't the most productive output overall, but he put up 99-plus yards three times.

Palmer has clearly been running ahead of rookie Quentin Johnston ($5,200) this season and led in routes 33 to 13 on Sunday.

Others to Consider

Ja'Marr Chase ($8,200 at TEN) - Facing 25th-ranked pass D and averaging 10.7 targets.

Davante Adams ($8,100 at LAC) - League-high 39.8% target share; check Jimmy G's status.

Jaylen Waddle ($7,400 at BUF) - Weak 15.1% target share in his 2 games but a healthy 12.4 aDOT.

Jakobi Meyers ($6,900 at LAC) - 11.0 targets per game when healthy; check Jimmy G's status.

Tank Dell ($6,200 vs. PIT) - More routes than Nico Collins past two games; downfield threat.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Salary: $7,200
Matchup: at CAR

T.J. Hockenson has a 21.1% target share within his offense, the fourth-best rate of any tight end in football in their active games and the second-best on the main slate (behind Zach Ertz, who gets the unenviable matchup with the San Francisco 49ers).

Hockenson's up against the Panthers, who rank 22nd in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to tight ends. They also let up a catch rate over expectation of +5.0% to TEs.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $5,900
Matchup: vs. WSH

The Washington Commanders have good results on 17 targets to TEs so far: 11 catches for 58 yards and no touchdowns (despite 2 end zone targets).

Dallas Goedert has a solid-but-unspectacular 17.4% target share for 5.0 targets per game and just 21.0 yards. The aDOT is low (5.2 yards), too. However, he has a 25.0% target share over the past two games after a forgettable Week 1 and got to 41 yards last week.

Others to Consider

Taysom Hill ($5,500 vs. TB) - TE is weak this week, and potentially without Derek Carr, he could get more plays under center.

Dalton Schultz ($4,600 vs. PIT) - Tough TE matchup, but Schultz is T2 on the slate in downfield targets per game (1.7).

Defenses

Denver Broncos

FanDuel Salary: $3,900
Matchup: at CHI

The Chicago Bears' offense is doing whatever the opposite of clicking is, and while the Denver Broncos defense is struggling (29th in adjusted pass defense, per numberFire), the matchup is there for sacks.

Justin Fields has a 12.9% sack rate, the third-highest mark in the NFL, and he's operating with the second-worst EPA per drop back (-0.46) of any QB, as well.

Others to Consider

Philadelphia Eagles ($5,000 vs. WSH) - Top-ranked run D; Sam Howell has a league-high 16.1% sack rate.

Cincinnati Bengals ($4,100 at TEN) - 13.5% sack rate for Ryan Tannehill (2nd-highest).

Los Angeles Rams ($3,600 at IND) - Tight game that could go back and forth; top-half adjusted pass D.

Be sure to check out all of the Week 4 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel, including the $1.6M NFL Sunday Million!

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.