Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 15

Only three games on the Sunday main slate have elevated over/unders, so it'll be easy to dig into those matchups.

But where else can we look for our daily fantasy football lineups?

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 15 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Matchup: vs. Dallas Cowboys

The afternoon games this week are really interesting across the board, but perhaps no game is more intriguing on the whole slate than the one between the Bills and the Cowboys.

That points us to Josh Allen at quarterback.

Allen has had a really good season overall and has been very efficient (despite some interception issues).

Dallas ranks third in adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics. But in four games against top-eight pass defenses, Allen has averaged 23.9 FanDuel points with 266.0 yards and 2.3 touchdowns with a 49.0% passing success rate and elite efficiency (0.23 Passing NEP per drop back over expectation).

As a rusher, he's averaged 6.3 carries for 25.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns in these matchups, too.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $7,200
Matchup: vs Washington Commanders

Matthew Stafford has quietly had a good season, especially when you narrow things down to what applies right now for him.

Stafford has averaged 254.8 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and 0.14 Passing NEP per drop back (+0.11 over expectation).

He now faces the 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense by numberFire's metrics: the Washington Commanders.

Stafford has faced just one team (twice) worse than 23rd in adjusted pass defense, and in his two games against the Arizona Cardinals, he averaged 227.5 yards and 2.5 touchdowns for 0.31 Passing NEP per drop back with a 55.0% passing success rate. His yards per attempt average in that two-game sample is 8.0.

Expanding the view to get a few more plus matchups in there still yields good results for Stafford.

He's had five games with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams. He's averaged 250.0 yards and 2.6 touchdowns in those. Two of them were against top-two opponents, too.

Others to Consider

Dak Prescott ($8,600 at Buffalo Bills) - Going outdoors but in a great game environment and viable splits against tough D's. More of a pivot than a priority.

Brock Purdy ($8,400 at Arizona Cardinals) - Matchup with the 31st-ranked pass defense can bring out the upside.

Jordan Love ($8,000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - 8.0 yards per attempt in four games against teams 24th or worse in adjusted pass D.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Salary: $10,500
Matchup: at Arizona Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey's role is hard to contend with among running backs in today's NFL.

He has averaged 124.2 scrimmage yards per game this season on a per-game average of 17.4 carries and 4.8 targets while also seeing a carry or target on 51.1% of the 49ers' red zone plays.

The Cardinals are 20th in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt and 26th in rushing success rate allowed to backs. They're also 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to backs, per my numbers.

There's plenty of value to get to McCaffrey this week, too.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: at Buffalo Bills

In the game of the week, we can get access to a featured back at a very reasonable salary with Tony Pollard.

Pollard has played at least 70.3% of the Cowboys' snaps in three straight games, and he has now averaged 83.2 scrimmage yards on 15.1 carries and 4.5 targets per game. He's seen a viable 33.7% red zone opportunity share, as well.

The Bills are a moderate overall running back defense, and Pollard has been operating with better efficiency lately.

Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots

FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Matchup: vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Patriots' offense showed life last week with Bailey Zappe under center, and with reports that Bill Belichick is on the outs after the season, we could see all the stops pulled out here.

In Week 14, Ezekiel Elliott was a true featured back. He totaled 140.0 scrimmage yards on a 90.9% snap rate. He had 22 carries and 8 targets while being featured on 75.0% of the team's red zone plays.

The Chiefs are 28th in RYOE per carry allowed to backs and just one of the best overall RB matchups in the NFL.

Others to Consider

Kyren Williams ($9,600 vs. Washington Commanders) - Phenomenal role: 82.0% snap rate and 49.1% red zone share even in games with Kupp and Nacua.

Rachaad White ($7,600 at Green Bay Packers) - Top-six in overall workload among main slate RBs and finally gets another easy matchup.

Aaron Jones ($6,200 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - Could return and be without A.J. Dillon; monitor practice reports.

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: vs. Washington Commanders

Puka Nacua squares off with the league's worst adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's metrics.

The Commanders are also 32nd in yards per route run, 30th in average depth of target, and 28th in catch rate over expectation (CROE) allowed to wide receivers specifically.

That all bodes very well for Nacua, who -- in five games with both Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams -- has a 25.9% target share. That has led to 8.2 targets and 62.6 yards per game. His average depth of target is 10.8 yards, and he is averaging 4.0 downfield (10-plus yards) targets in this span.

With Washington's struggles against the deep pass, Nacua could catch a few strikes this week.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Matchup: at New England Patriots

Rashee Rice's breakout continues.

Rice has had 10, 9, and 10 targets in his past three games, which works out to in-game target shares of 31.3%, 30.0%, and 25.6%.

Overall, his past three games have resulted in an average of 9.7 targets, 81.0 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns.

His average depth of target is low at 3.5 yards. However, he has averaged 2.0 downfield targets (10-plus yards downfield) as well as 2 red zone targets per game for a 40.0% red zone target share.

The role is outpacing the salary right now.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Matchup: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In four games without Christian Watson, Jayden Reed has been the top guy for the Packers.

In that sample, Reed has a team-best 22.6% target share (7.5 per game) for just 43.8 yards, but a good workload of 2.5 downfield targets and 2.3 red zone targets.

Reed also is involved as a rusher (1.3 carries per game in this span and coming off of a 4-carry game in Week 14), which is never a bad thing for a receiver.

The Buccaneers are a funnel defense and rank 29th against the pass and 5th against the run, according to numberFire's metrics.

Others to Consider

Deebo Samuel ($8,400) and Brandon Aiyuk ($7,800 at Arizona Cardinals) - Elite workloads for both; Aiyuk is a fantastic pivot play.

Amari Cooper ($7,200 vs. Chicago Bears) - Has a target on 32.8% of routes in two games with Joe Flacco; would rank second on the full season.

Gabriel Davis ($6,200 vs. Dallas Cowboys) - Low floor but great ceiling when Bills are in a high-scoring game.

Demarcus Robinson ($5,600 vs. Washington Commanders) - 97.7% route rate and 10 targets last week with 9 traveling at least 10 yards, 4 in the red zone, and 3 in the end zone.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Salary: $5,900
Matchup: at Buffalo Bills

Jake Ferguson is a way to get some lower-salaried exposure to a potentially high-scoring game in Buffalo.

Ferguson has had single-game target shares of 20.0% and 20.5% in his past two contests as his role expands in this offense once again.

Ferguson's matchup with the Bills is a bit extra appealing because they allow a higher-than-average target per route rate to tight ends overall (they're 23rd in the league). They're just average in yards per route rate allowed to the position, as well.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: $4,700
Matchup: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tucker Kraft has now played three games without Luke Musgrave, and he has a 97.3% snap rate and 75.7% route rate in that split.

The target volume is workable: 4.0 targets per game (11.7%) with a good red zone role (19.0% red zone target share).

Tampa Bay is 26th in target per route rate allowed to tight ends as well as 22nd in yards per route and 24th in aDOT allowed to the position.

Others to Consider

Travis Kelce ($7,500 at New England Patriots) - Hard to prioritize with stud QBs, RBs, and WRs, but always has upside even in a tough matchup.

George Kittle ($6,800 at Arizona Cardinals) - Cards are okay against TEs but Kittle has yardage appeal all but Kelce lack on the slate.

Kyle Pitts ($5,700 at Carolina Panthers) - 3.0 downfield targets per game; only Kelce (3.1) also has more than 2.0 among TEs.

Defenses

Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: $3,300
Matchup: vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers' defense is far from great, and they're last in pressure rate, via NextGenStats.

However, in five matchups against teams bottom-eight in pressure rate, Desmond Ridder has allowed 2.2 sacks per game (a 7.5% sack rate).

He also has really bad EPA numbers even when adjusting for these low-pressure opponents.

For a bargain salary, you can't do much better than the Panthers this week.

Others to Consider

Miami Dolphins ($4,800 vs. New York Jets)

Cleveland Browns ($4,400 vs. Chicago Bears)

Los Angeles Rams ($4,300 vs. Washington Commanders)

Houston Texans ($3,900 at Tennessee Titans)

Be sure to check out all of the Week 15 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.