Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 13

The Week 13 main slate has just 10 games, and there are some potentially fantasy-friendly matchups mixed in with a lot of potential duds.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 13 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Matchup: vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jalen Hurts has had a solid passing season. He has averaged 245.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game with a completion percentage over expectation of +5.3% and an EPA (expected points added) per drop back over expectation rate of +0.10, which adjusts for opponent difficulty.

He does face a top-five adjusted pass defense this week, of course. In four games against top-10 pass defenses, Hurts has averaged just 209.0 yards per game but 1.8 touchdowns as well as 11.8 rushes and 37.8 yards per game. Plus 1.5 rushing touchdowns. So, yeah. That'll work in the game of the week.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: vs. Denver Broncos

C.J. Stroud sets up in a pretty elite spot this week against the Broncos.

Firstly, it's a dome game, which always helps, and the Broncos rank just 24th in adjusted pass defense, according to numberFire's opponent-adjusted metrics. Even with their improved play recently, they're a little overrated in that regard.

Stroud has averaged 296.9 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game with plus efficiency. He's played only four pass defenses 20th or worse. In those games, he's averaged 352.8 yards and 2.3 touchdowns.

Others to Consider

Tua Tagovailoa ($8,400 at Washington Commanders) - 337.0 yards and 2.8 TDs in four games against bottom-eight pass Ds; Washington is 32nd.

Brock Purdy ($7,800 at Philadelphia Eagles) - Elite 9.4 yards per attempt and in a potential back-and-forth game.

Jared Goff ($7,600 at New Orleans Saints) - Still throwing 30+ times per game with both RBs back in the lineup; indoor environment.

Russell Wilson ($7,400 at Houston Texans) - 6.2 carries and 23.2 yards per game over past five to supplement modest passing output (178.8 passing yards).

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Salary: $9,800
Matchup: at Philadelphia Eagles

We've got some salary-saving potential at running back this week, and when that's the case and when Christian McCaffrey is on the slate, we should take note.

McCaffrey has averaged 17.5 carries and 5.3 targets per game for 120.7 scrimmage yards. Only three other backs on the main slate have averaged even 100.0 scrimmage yards per game.

Additionally, McCaffrey has played 80.8% of the team's snaps and has a 54.2% red zone opportunity share. There's nothing bad to say about McCaffrey from a DFS standpoint this week.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Matchup: vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are the best overall running back matchup, according to my opponent-adjusted metrics, and that's sorely needed for Rachaad White behind a poor offensive line.

White's efficiency metrics are lacking, yet that hasn't led to a loss of work at all. He's averaging 14.2 carries and 4.2 targets per game for 83.9 scrimmage yards. He also has a really good 37.2% red zone opportunity share.

At a moderate salary and with a great matchup, White is a great RB play this week.

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Matchup: at Tennessee Titans

Zack Moss is setting up as an obvious contender for the best value of the week.

Jonathan Taylor is out for multiple weeks with a thumb injury, and that paves the way for Moss to carry a big workload.

We've already had four games this season with Moss playing at least 76.2% of the team’s snaps. In those games, he has averaged 129.3 scrimmage yards on 22.3 carries and 2.5 targets per game with a 57.1% red zone opportunity share, which is dominant.

The Titans are good overall against the run but can be susceptible. Against the Titans earlier this year, Moss went 195 total yards on 23 carries and 2 targets (with 2 rushing touchdowns).

Others to Consider

Kyren Williams ($8,500 vs. Cleveland Browns) - Elite workload but very tough matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700 at New Orleans Saints) - Out-snapping David Montgomery and has a much better receiving role.

Devin Singletary ($7,000 vs. Denver Broncos) - 81.0% snap rate last week and attached to a good offense.

Javonte Williams ($6,600 at Houston Texans) - Snap rate shot up to 71.0% last week.

Wide Receivers

AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Brown FanDuel Salary: $8,400
Smith FanDuel Salary: $7,700
Matchup: vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Eagles' top-two pass-catchers have been pretty interesting as of late without tight end Dallas Goedert in the lineup.

In those two games, DeVonta Smith has been more prioritized than A.J. Brown.

Smith's target share is 32.7% (8.0 targets per game), and he has a +8.3% catch rate over expectation (CROE) for 102.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

For Brown, he's still getting work to the tune of a 26.5% target share (6.5 per game). However, the results are down: a -9.9% CROE and just 22.5 yards per game (albeit with a touchdown coming last week). The salary is dropping for him, and we should be taking note.

All of this is to say that both guys possess big ceilings with 25.0% target shares or better in an elite offense.

Historically, Smith's role is the one that gets worse with Goedert back, so we'll have to track the news on the tight end's status.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Pittman FanDuel Salary: $7,900
Downs FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Matchup: at Tennessee Titans

To varying degrees, Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are the Colts' go-to receivers.

On the season, Pittman has a 30.7% target share (10.1 per game) for 71.3 yards per game. He's averaging 1.5 red zone targets per game and has been targeted on 38.6% of the team's red zone targets and 42.9% of their end zone targets.

The Titans are 30th in adjusted pass defense but 5th in adjusted rush defense to give them a funnel defense tag.

As for Downs, he is fresh off a 13-target game, though he caught just 5 for 43 yards. He had 3 red zone targets and a downfield look. In nine games in which he has played at least 50% of the team's snaps, he has a 22.1% target share for 7.7 looks per game.

There's room to grow on this salary.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

FanDuel Salary: $6,700
Matchup: vs. Miami Dolphins

I don't always love chasing volume, but the Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs and already have a pass-heavy tendency, so we're likely to get a safe target volume for Terry McLaurin, who has a 20.9% target share on the full season. He also has a 20.3% target share (8.7 per game) in three games with Curtis Samuel back in the lineup.

Accounting for a good aDOT (11.1 yards) and downfield work (3.7 downfield targets) in this span, McLaurin has a weighted target average of 11.4, per my numbers. That ranks him top-12 on the main slate among receivers over the past three weeks.

Others to Consider

Tyreek Hill ($10,000 at Washington Commanders) - Averaging 134.0 yards per game against teams 20th or worse in pass defense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500 at New Orleans Saints) - 10.9 targets per game and a 40.0% red zone target share.

Chris Godwin ($6,300 vs. Carolina Panthers) - Yardage upside is down but just one TD; ESPN's metrics have him with 5.2 expected TDs.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Matchup: vs. Detroit Lions

The salary for Taysom Hill isn't super easy to get to this week without much value at receiver, but the Saints are all sorts of banged up, and Hill has been involved in the offense in high-leverage ways -- again.

Hill has averaged 5.2 rushes per game for 26.1 yards as well as 2.8 targets per game for an additional 19.5 yards. His 45.5 scrimmage yards per game and a healthy 23.3% red zone opportunity share are already reasonable, and with the Saints' injury misfortunes, he could be slated for one of the bigger workloads he's had this season.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

FanDuel Salary: $5,800
Matchup: vs. Arizona Cardinals

The first week under a new offensive coordinator for the Steelers was kind to Pat Freiermuth. The tight end saw 11 targets and caught 9 of them for 120 yards. His average depth of target was 9.2 yards, and he had 3 downfield targets (10-plus air yards).

Prior to this game, his aDOT was 5.6 yards downfield, and he averaged only 1.0 downfield target per game.

The Cardinals are a bottom-five tight end defense by my adjusted fantasy point numbers.

Others to Consider

George Kittle ($7,400 at Philadelphia Eagles) - Eagles are 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target and 32nd in CPOE allowed to TEs.

Juwan Johnson ($4,900 vs. Detroit Lions) - Led Saints in routes and had seven targets last week with the top pass-catchers exiting early.

Defenses

Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $3,700
Matchup: vs. Cleveland Browns

The Rams draw the Browns this week. The Browns brought in Joe Flacco, who should start, assuming Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn't clear concussion protocol.

In any circumstance, the Rams stand out this week as home favorites.

They're just 20th overall by numberFire's adjusted defense metrics but hold average metrics across the board. That'll work against Cleveland's offense.

Others to Consider

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,800 vs. Carolina Panthers)

Houston Texans ($3,500 vs. Denver Broncos)

Carolina Panthers ($3,200 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Be sure to check out all of the Week 13 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.