Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 12

While there are no NFL teams on bye this week, there are six primetime games (three on Thanksgiving and one each on Black Friday, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football). That means we've got a smaller 10-game main slate.

There's a mix of high totals and low ones, so how does that impact the outlook on the player pool?

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 12 FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $8,800
Matchup: vs. Buffalo Bills

Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes are in a tier of their own in terms of quarterbacks with big upside on this slate. Hurts and Allen are facing each other, and Mahomes is coming off of a pretty crushing loss on Monday Night Football and heading into a divisional matchup.

If one or more of these three have a big game, it'll be pretty hard to make up the gap, given the number of low-upside quarterbacks who are starting this week.

With that in mind, we can roster Hurts, who has 22 carries over his past two games and a per-game average of 10.0 (with an average of 34.5 rushing yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game) on the full season.

The Bills do limit downfield passing (they're first in passing average depth of target allowed) but are below-average in passing success rate and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). A home favorite who can run and who has multiple stack options, Hurts has an easy case as a top-tier play this week.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

FanDuel Salary: $7,700
Matchup: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

C.J. Stroud also possesses some upside despite not being a rusher. He has no more than 4 carries or 20 yards in any game this season but does have a pair of rushing scores in his past four games, which we shouldn't quite bank on.

Stroud faces a Jaguars team that he beat back in Week 3. They're a borderline top-10 pass defense but without any really worrisome metrics. The biggest downside here is that this is a second-time-around divisional matchup.

However, the over/under is still high, and Stroud continues to play well. He rates out with a mark of 0.18 EPA per drop back over opponent expectation, which puts him at the same level as Dak Prescott and fourth overall on the season.

Others to Consider

Josh Allen ($9,200 at Philadelphia Eagles) - Bills were a bit run-heavy last week with new OC, but Allen was efficient.

Kyler Murray ($8,000 vs. Los Angeles Rams) - Poor EPA metrics but a great success rate since returning; 42.0 rushing yards per game, too.

Trevor Lawrence ($7,800 at Houston Texans) - Due for TD regression and in a back-and-forth game.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

FanDuel Salary: $8,200
Matchup: at Arizona Cardinals

We'll have to monitor the practice reports throughout the week (or ideally on the weekend after Thanksgiving), as running back is a pretty iffy position on the slate.

One name contingent on the practice report is Kyren Williams. Williams leads the main slate group of running backs in snap rate in active games (82.8%), and his workload earlier this season was really great: 15.0 carries and 4.0 targets per game for 86.2 scrimmage yards.

He also had an elite 59.2% red zone opportunity share (carries plus targets). No other back on the main slate has better than a 47.3% red zone opportunity share, and only three others are above 40.0%.

The Cardinals are a plus rushing matchup, and this team is clearly set to give Williams a big role after releasing Darrell Henderson. Barring setbacks, he's a pretty great process play.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Matchup: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jonathan Taylor's role has surged in the past two games for the Colts, but the team as a whole has been a bit of a main slate afterthought due to scheduling. Taylor's snap rate over the past four games has been 49.3%, 61.2%, 75.4%, and 88.9%.

His per-game average over those past two games has been great from a workload standpoint (20.5 carries and 3.0 targets) but not from a production standpoint (72.0 yards from scrimmage), though it's not awful by any means.

The Buccaneers are a tough overall rush defense again, so this is not a perfect spot for Taylor. But like with much of the main slate, perfection is hard to find.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: at Indianapolis Colts

Rachaad White has pretty quietly had an elite season from a usage standpoint.

His red zone opportunity share is 39.0%, ranking him fifth among main slate backs, and he's third in snap rate (78.2%).

What I love about White's role is the receiving: he has a 13.0% target share for 4.4 targets per game and 35.4 receiving yards. Only Alvin Kamara (43.6) has more receiving yards per game among main slate backs.

The Colts are a subpar running back defense both on the ground and through the air.

Others to Consider

Travis Etienne ($8,600 at Houston Texans) - Facing a top-10 rush defense but has a great role and gets receiving work.

Josh Jacobs ($7,100 vs. Kansas City Chiefs) - 84.2 scrimmage yards per game; Chiefs are a plus rushing matchup.

Isiah Pacheco ($6,600 at Las Vegas Raiders) - Featured back in his offense and a big favorite.

James Conner ($6,600 vs. Los Angeles Rams) - 63.3% and 69.0% snap rate since returning.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Brown FanDuel Salary: $8,800
Smith FanDuel Salary: $7,400
Matchup: vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills rank first in passing aDOT allowed, which could lead to some more horizontal passing, but A.J. Brown is fresh off of a 4-target, 1-catch, 8-yard game on Monday Night Football, and his salary is really high. That can be a bit of a turnoff for people.

As for DeVonta Smith, he played really well and had 8 targets for 99 yards on Monday.

Last season, in five games with Brown, Smith, and Hurts active but Dallas Goedert out, Brown led the team with a 29.2% target share (9.0 per game for 95.2 yards per game), and Smith had a 27.3% target share (8.4 per game for 84.0 yards).

Both are very viable in what could easily be a high-scoring game.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Dell FanDuel Salary: $7,800
Collins FanDuel Salary: $6,900
Matchup: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The role for Tank Dell is hard to overstate.

Since the Texans' Week 7 bye and in games with Nico Collins, he has a 25.0% target share (8.3 per game) with a 41.2% air yards share (139.8 per game) and 6.0 downfield targets (10-plus air yards). For context, no player has averaged more than 4.9 downfield targets per game on the full season.

Collins returned in Week 11 to a 76.1% snap rate and a 28.9% target share. Those 11 targets yielded "only" 65 yards, yet 5 of them were downfield -- and 5 were in the red zone. The results could have been much better.

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars

Ridley FanDuel Salary: $7,100
Kirk FanDuel Salary: $6,800
Matchup: at Houston Texans

Yet another pair of receivers here makes sense with the target shares and game environments we have available to us this week on the main slate.

The lid was lifted for Calvin Ridley last week when he caught 7 of 9 targets for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, his first score(s) in five games leading in.

Christian Kirk cooled off after an 11-target, 104-yard game with 48 yards on 6 targets in Zay Jones's return to action.

But Kirk still led the trio in routes (87.9%) and now slots into a potential back-and-forth game.

In four games with all three active, Ridley leads the team with a 25.5% target share and a 41.0% air yards share. Kirk's rates are 22.0% and 20.2%, respectively.

Others to Consider

Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,600 vs.Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - 32.1% target share (10.4 per game) with Gardner Minshew

Chris Olave ($7,300 at Atlanta Falcons) - Tons of downfield work already and should see safe volume without Michael Thomas.

Rashid Shaheed ($5,800 at Atlanta Falcons) - Saw an expanded role last year without Thomas; great salary and indoors.

Josh Downs ($5,900 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - Great workload when healthy for this salary but dealing with a knee issue; monitor the practice report.

Justin Watson ($5,100 at Las Vegas Raiders) - Role is up the past two games and separating from the other WRs.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Matchup: at Las Vegas Raiders

While it's been a while since we've had Travis Kelce blow up a main slate, this week, we can get to him due to a lack of high-end RBs that we need to prioritize. It's also a potential week for flexing a wide receiver, which always frees up a bit more salary.

While I let the data do the talking almost always, there's something to be said for the Chiefs' WRs and their costly drops, so maybe there's even more of a Mahomes-Kelce connection this week than usual.

Kelce's target numbers have been great already: 9, 8, 9, 11, 9, 13, 9, 4, and 9.

His 71.2 yards per game rank him first on the main slate at the position by 23.2 yards. Though there are some tight ends trending up, Kelce remains the guy.

Las Vegas is also a top-six tight end matchup by catch rate over expectation.

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Matchup: vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Trey McBride breakout has continued with Kyler Murray back under center.

McBride has single-game target shares of 29.0% and 24.1% in two starts with Murray. That's worked out to 8.0 targets (3.0 downfield) and 87.0 yards per game.

My adjusted numbers have the Rams as the worst tight end defense on a per-target basis, so once again, we can go back to McBride.

Others to Consider

Dalton Kincaid ($6,000 at Philadelphia Eagles) - Role could scale back with Dawson Knox inching toward a return, so monitor news.

Evan Engram ($5,800 at Houston Texans) - Hasn't scored yet this season, so regression is possible in a good overall game environment.

Defenses

Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $3,800
Matchup: vs. New Orleans Saints

The Falcons could face Jameis Winston, and in that case, they deserve a long look.

Winston's EPA and success rate metrics are pretty putrid in his limited action this season, and we know he's got a high havoc play rate for better or worse.

Atlanta is also top-10 in success rate, completion percentage over expectation, and yards per target on downfield passes allowed while also being a good rush defense, which means we could see elevated drop backs here.

Others to Consider

Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,700 at Cincinnati Bengals)

New Orleans Saints ($4,200 at Atlanta Falcons)

Los Angeles Rams ($3,600 at Arizona Cardinals)

Be sure to check out all of the Week 12 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.