Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Conference Championship Round
The Conference Championship Round is shaping up to be an exciting one, with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens kicking things off at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. To follow that up, the Detroit Lions will head West to square off against the San Francisco 49ers at 6:30 p.m. ET to decide who will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- for Sunday's Conference Championship Round FanDuel main slate.
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Run D Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC | BAL | 20.5 | 3.5 | 44.5 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
BAL | KC | 24.5 | -3.5 | 44.5 | 4 | 3 | 26 |
DET | SF | 21.5 | 7 | 51.5 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
SF | DET | 30.5 | -7 | 51.5 | 27 | 30 | 8 |
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($8,800) -- We got an explosive outing from Lamar Jackson in last week's win in the Divisional Round with 36.08 FanDuel points. The dynamic signal-caller has registered 32-plus FanDuel points in three of his last five games, which shows the ceiling outcomes he is capable of. With Jackson having of lot of his production from running the ball, it's worth noting that the Chiefs allow the second-most rushing yards (439) and have the worst rushing success rate (60.4%) against quarterbacks, via NextGenStats.
Brock Purdy ($7,700) -- The one area you want to attack the Lions' defense is through the air. Brock Purdy notched only 15.48 FanDuel points in last week's victory -- and he's totaled fewer than 18 FanDuel points in three straight games -- but Detroit's defense surrenders the fifth-most passing FanDuel points per drop back (0.47) and the most 300-yard passing games (8) to quarterbacks. Purdy figures to be a popular choice at quarterback with the 49ers having the highest projected team total on the slate.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) -- Patrick Mahomes has had a roller-coaster campaign, tallying just five games of 20-plus FanDuel points. The gunslinging quarterback hasn't eclipsed more than 20 points in seven consecutive games, and the Ravens present a formidable challenge for the two-time Super Bowl winner. While it is hard to imagine a ceiling performance from Mahomes on Sunday, he'll be a contrarian option on a small slate given the matchup and his lack of reliable weapons to target.
Jared Goff ($7,200) -- The Lions are in the NFC title game in large part due to the play of Jared Goff. The former first-round pick totaled 287 yards and two touchdowns in last week's win, giving him 280-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in two of his last three outings. Weather shouldn't be an issue for Goff despite playing on the road on Sunday, but the Lions have the second-lowest projected team total across Sunday's matchups. The 49ers are giving up the second-fewest passing FanDuel points per drop back (0.35) to quarterbacks, which is why Goff is a risky play.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) -- Christian McCaffrey boasts the highest salary this weekend, as he is always capable of single-handedly breaking a slate. The All-Pro running back receives the third-most adjusted opportunities per game (29.8) and leads all running backs in scrimmage yards per game (134.1). While the Lions have the eighth-best schedule-adjusted run defense, via numberFire's metrics, they do permit the ninth-most receiving yards (624) and yards per route run (1.15) to running backs. Despite his expensive salary, everyone will be trying to fit McCaffrey into their lineups.
Isiah Pacheco ($7,800) -- Volume has been positive for Isiah Pacheco, commanding 15-plus carries in seven of his last eight games. The Chiefs would love to find themselves in a situation on Sunday where they secure an early lead and lean on Pacheco. In the scenario where the Chiefs can give Pacheco a heavy workload again, the Ravens are allowing the 12th-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.31) and they are 18th in rushing defense success rate (39%) to running backs.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) -- We are now seeing a $1,000 salary difference between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit's backfield. In the team's two playoff games, Gibbs leads the running back duo of the Lions in FanDuel points per game (17.1), scrimmage yards per game (91), and yards per route run (3.32). Gibbs is explosive enough to turn any touch into a big play, which makes him an enticing option against a 49ers defense that is giving up the sixth-most receptions (94) and the eighth-most yards per route run (1.16) to running backs.
David Montgomery ($6,000) -- Montgomery had his streak of four straight games of finding the end zone snapped in last week's win, giving him only 6.2 FanDuel points. The veteran running back's day would have looked a lot better had Chase Reynolds not come out of nowhere and stolen a goal-line touchdown. With Gibbs seeing an expanded workload and being the more explosive player, Montgomery is entirely reliant on touchdowns. Montgomery still leads Detroit's backfield in red-zone rushing share (63.6%) in their first two playoff games despite last week's surprising touchdown from Reynolds.
Gus Edwards ($5,800) -- Another running back who appears to be touchdown-dependent right now is Gus Edwards. Edwards leads the Ravens with 13 rushing touchdowns, but the bruising back has failed to score a touchdown in back-to-back games. On top of that, Baltimore has been deploying more of Justice Hill to give the team a back who can contribute in the passing game. Edwards received fewer touches (11) than Hill (15) in last week's matchup, and the Chiefs have given up the third-fewest rushing touchdowns (6) to running backs.
Others to Consider
- Justice Hill ($5,500) -- Hills leads Ravens running backs in scrimmage yards per game (68) in the last four games, and the Chiefs allow the 11th-most FanDuel points per target (1.13) to running backs.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,000) -- Amon-Ra St. Brown is the model of consistency at the wide receiver position. Upon recording 77 receiving yards and a score in last week's victory, St. Brown has now registered 95-plus receiving yards and/or one receiving touchdown in 17 of his 18 games this season. While the 49ers are viewed as a less-than-ideal matchup, they are permitting the sixth-most receptions (242), the ninth-most receiving touchdowns (17), and the sixth-highest catch rate over expected (3.9%) to wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel ($8,000) -- It remains to be seen if Deebo Samuel suits up for the 49ers on Sunday, but the do-it-all wideout returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday. Despite exiting last week's contest with a shoulder injury, it's hard to envision a scenario where Samuel doesn't force himself to play in the Conference Championship Round. Before last week, Samuel had produced 15-plus FanDuel points in five of his previous seven appearances. If Samuel does play, there is certainly risk in playing him as he likely won't be playing at full strength.
Brandon Aiyuk ($7,800) -- With Samuel either out or limited, Brandon Aiyuk is expected to be one of the most popular receivers on the slate. Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share (23.9%), air yards share (40.3%), receiving yards per game (84.3), and yards per route run (3.03). At the same time, the Lions have allowed one receiver to tally 141-plus receiving yards and at least one touchdown in five consecutive games. Aiyuk is a priority for me if I choose to use Purdy at quarterback.
Rashee Rice ($7,100) -- The Ravens are not typically a team we want to attack with receivers or pass catchers. What makes Rashee Rice an interesting receiver is the fact he has an average depth of target of only 4.8 yards, but he has the second-most yards after catch per reception (8.3) among wideouts. The Chiefs prefer to get Rice the ball quickly and allow the rookie receiver to make plays with the ball in his hands. Rice will be a popular play for those who see Kansas City's offense having success against Baltimore's daunting defense.
Zay Flowers ($6,400) -- What will the offense of the Ravens look like with Mark Andrews set to make his return? Even if the Ravens elect to deploy more 12 personnel with Andrews and Isaiah Likely available, Zay Flowers will be one of the receivers who is on the field often. Flowers leads all of Baltimore's skill players with an 84.3% snap share and a 91.5% route participation. After finding the end zone just once in his first 11 games, Flowers has scored four touchdowns in his last six contests.
Others to Consider
- Josh Reynolds ($5,600) -- Josh Reynolds owns the second-highest route participation (88%) and yards per route run (1.62) in Detroit's first two playoff games. Despite hauling in a touchdown in last week's matchup, Reynolds has received a $500 decrease in his salary this week.
- Jauan Jennings ($5,300) -- If Samuel is limited or inactive for the 49ers, Jauan Jennings is poised for an increase in snaps. Jennings led the 49ers in yards per route run (2.26) and turned five catches into 61 yards with Samuel exiting last week's game early.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,200) -- Travis Kelce posted the second-most FanDuel points (22) he has totaled all season in last week's contest by scoring twice on passes from Mahomes. The experienced tight end had gone seven straight games of not scoring a touchdown before having his first multi-touchdown performance of the season in the Divisional Round. While the Ravens are a negative matchup for tight ends, Kelce and Rice are the only pass catchers who have prominent roles in Kansas City's offense right now.
George Kittle ($6,600) -- Aside from Aiyuk, George Kittle could be the player who benefits the most with Samuel either out or limited. In the Divisional Round, Kittle led the 49ers in receiving yards (81) and air yards (74.8), and he caught the team's lone receiving touchdown. The Lions are surrendering the 11th-most FanDuel points per target (1.42) and the sixth-most receiving yards (1,033) to tight ends. Double-stacking Purdy with Aiyuk and Kittle could be a fruitful strategy in a game that has a projected total of 51.5 points.
Sam LaPorta ($6,500) -- Even though Sam LaPorta is dealing with a knee injury, the rookie tight end has logged the second-most expected FanDuel points per game (9.7) and the second-highest target share (20.6%) in the first two postseason contests for the Lions. Goff should look in LaPorta's direction often on Sunday with the 49ers wanting to apply pressure quickly on him. San Francisco's defense is giving up the ninth-most receptions (95) and the ninth-highest target rate (19.5%) to tight ends.
Mark Andrews ($5,700) -- We're in an awkward spot trying to decide whether or not Andrews is worth playing despite him being activated from injured reserve. Andrews has been sidelined for seven straight games, and Likely has done a fantastic job filling in for him throughout his absence. That being said, Andrews has always been one of Jackson's favorite targets in the passing game. If Andrews doesn't have many -- or any -- limitations, then he becomes a great value at the tight end position.
Others to Consider
- Isaiah Likely ($5,400) -- Amid Andrews' absence, Likely has scored at least one touchdown and 10-plus FanDuel points in five of his last six games. Can the Ravens afford to remove Likely from the offensive game plan in a crucial game given how he's performed as the starter?
Defenses
Baltimore D/ST ($4,200) -- The two defenses that interest me the most are the ones involved in the game with the lowest projected total at 44.5 points. The defense and special teams of the Ravens has allowed 19 or fewer points in five consecutive games. Additionally, the Ravens have notched three-plus sacks and multiple takeaways in three of their last four contests.
Kansas City D/ST ($3,800) -- On the other side of the field, the Chiefs' defense is also one that shouldn't be ignored. There is a scenario where Kansas City's defense overwhelms Jackson and Baltimore's offense to earn their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years. While this unit tallied zero FanDuel points last week, they have scored double-digit FanDuel points in seven contests this season.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.