NHL

Conn Smythe Odds: Where Do Things Stand Heading Into Game 2?

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr

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Following Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, the Vegas Golden Knights are up 1-0 on the Florida Panthers.

Here's a look at the six players with the best Conn Smythe Trophy odds heading into Game 2, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Individual expected goals created via NaturalStatTrick. Goals saved above expected stat via MoneyPuck.

PlayerFanDuel Odds
Jack Eichel+300
Sergei Bobrovsky+330
Jonathan Marchessault+400
Adin Hill+500
Matthew Tkachuk+600
Mark Stone+1500

1. Jack Eichel

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +300

The Golden Knights walked away from Game 1 with a 5-2 win. As has remained steadfast throughout Vegas' entire playoff run, Jack Eichel was at the center of the team's success. The center added two assists in the victory, including a crucial secondary assist on Zach Whitecloud's tie-breaking tally in the third period, as he totaled 21:27 time on ice.

Eichel currently leads the Golden Knights this postseason in points (20) and assists (14).

With Eichel's team up in the series and him leading the way for Vegas offensively, it's not all that surprising that he is the current Conn Smythe favorite.

2. Sergei Bobrovsky

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +330

Sergei Bobrovsky has been the anchor for the Panthers since being made the starter in Game 3 of the first round against the Boston Bruins. His 2.32 goals against average and .931 save percentage took an obvious hit following the 5-2 loss in Game 1, but they remain in the top five in the playoffs despite having played the most games of anyone in the conversation.

Bobrovsky's 19.9 goals saved above expected stands out more than any other number on the netminder's résumé as it's 11.1 higher than the next best in the playoffs (Igor Shesterkin at 8.8 goals saved above expected). If the Panthers are going to turn this series around, it'll likely be because of the play of Bobrovsky between the pipes.

It's worth noting only five players in Stanley Cup Final history have won the Conn Smythe Trophy despite being on the losing team. Out of those five players, four of them were goalies. Jean-Sebastien Giguere was the last player or goalie to win, which was back in 2003. Win or lose, Bobrovsky having the second-best odds -- and the highest amongst Panthers players -- makes perfect sense.

He'll have to be better than 29 saves on 33 shots if he wants his team to win the Stanley Cup, let alone take home the Conn Smythe, so Bobrovsky will have to bounce back into the form we've seen him in this underdog playoff run.

3. Jonathan Marchessault

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +400

The beauty of the Golden Knights' success is that a lot of it has come thanks to their team mentality. No one player has necessarily stood out above anyone else on the team. That's a great factor for their team but maybe not as much for bettors checking out this market.

Jon Audy-Marchessault has had a similar run in these playoffs without having as big a name as his teammate, Eichel, does. In 18 games, Marchessault has amassed 10 goals, 8 assists, and 18 points. The 10 goals are tied for second in the playoffs and are tied with William Karlsson for first on the Golden Knights. Marchessault opened the scoring for Vegas and tied the game in Game 1 on the power play, showing his ability to find the openings. Most importantly, he helped his team get the Game 1 win.

Marchessault's playoff-leading 65 shots paired with a 15.4% shooting percentage points to the goal-scoring success likely continuing as the Stanley Cup Final proceeds. His 4.43 individual expected goals created is the highest mark among those remaining in the playoffs, only furthering the likelihood of success in this series for the winger.

The remainder of the series will be hard-fought, and a player like Marchessault, with odds giving bettors an outside track to a big win, could walk away with the championship and the Conn Smythe Trophy to boot. He's potentially a greater value than Eichel based on the opening game of the series and how many directions this can go along the way.

4. Adin Hill

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +500

Adin Hill made the save -- and possibly the play -- of the playoffs in Game 1, especially if the Golden Knights go on to win it all.

With the game tied at one apiece in the second period, Hill dove and made a stunning stick save on Nick Cousins. While the two teams wound up being tied again at 2-2 by the end of the period, it was the type of save that we've seen in the past from netminders -- like former Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby -- that can lead to a series win.

But looking at only the one save would be a discredit to Hill and his unbelievable play since the Golden Knights turned to him in these playoffs.

When Laurent Brossoit was injured in the Western Conference Semifinals, Hill stepped up to the highest degree. Take into consideration that Hill actually is their third goalie, with All-Star netminder Logan Thompson being out of action since March 23. The way Hill has stepped up is unquestionably impressive as the team could have turned to two-time Stanley Cup Champion and 2011-12 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Quick.

Everything about Hill's rise to starting goaltender has been unexpected, so him finishing off this run as a champion and the Conn Smythe winner would play to the improbable story thus far.

Hill leads the playoffs with a .938 save percentage, and if he keeps playing like he did in Game 1, when he posted a 33-save performance, he could capture the Conn Smythe and be the first goalie since Andrei Vasilevskiy to earn the honor of playoff most valuable player.

5. Matthew Tkachuk

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +600

Arguably, no skater has been as valuable to their team as Matthew Tkachuk has to Florida this postseason.

The 25-year-old has solidified himself as one of hockey's best through this playoff run, with his 9 goals, 12 assists, and 21 points being only one part of his heroics. With three overtime goals and four overall game-winners, Tkachuk has almost single-handedly led the Panthers on the offensive end.

Those clutch moments can matter a lot when it comes to award voting, so Tkachuk is firmly in the Conn Smythe mix -- even after a forgettable Game 1. Ending the game in the locker room following his 10-minute misconduct is likely some of the reason Tkachuk sports just the fifth-best Conn Smythe odds out of all players in the series.

Despite the penalty, Tkachuk probably isn't going to change his physicality anytime soon. The Panthers winger is going to get under the skin of the Golden Knights -- as he has with all other teams he's played against in the playoffs -- and if he can get back on track statistically, Florida can win this series.

6. Mark Stone

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1500

With +1500 odds, Mark Stone is a longshot. He has a case, though.

The Golden Knights' captain has 16 points this postseason and is probably the best two-way forward remaining in the playoffs. Stone's goal in Game 1 was the back-breaker for the Panthers, a team that has battled back time and time again in these playoffs.

The right winger has had 19:38 shorthanded time on ice, and it could support his efforts to win the award if the Golden Knights can keep the Panthers off the board when Florida hits the power play.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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