College Football Playoff Semifinals: Best Bets and Props for Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Between the two College Football Playoff semifinal matchups, the Orange Bowl between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions is tracking to be the tighter game. Notre Dame is favored by only 1.5 points compared to the Ohio State Buckeyes tabbed as 5.5-point favorites over the Texas Longhorns for Friday's Cotton Bowl.

The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have both dominated the playoffs thus far, winning each of their games by double digits. These squads mirror each other's identity, as well, leaning on elite defense and strong run games. What could be the difference makers for Thursday's contest, which kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET?

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, check out the best bets for the Capital One Orange Bowl.

To add to the intrigue, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promo for all customers betting on the Orange Bowl taking place January 9th.

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You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button. You’ll then be rewarded a No Sweat Token to use for a SGP wager on the Notre Dame-Penn State game happening January 9th, 2025. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Capital One Orange Bowl Player Props and Betting Picks

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Under 45.5 Points (-120)

Out of all game lines and props, backing under 45.5 points is the most promising bet for this contest. As mentioned, each team leans on defense and running the ball. That implies slow paces and low-scoring games.

The numbers suggest exactly that, for both teams are in the top 34% of the slowest paces (most seconds per play) and in the top 30% of rush play rate. Then, factor in both of these teams are among the top seven units in EPA allowed per play and top six in yards allowed per play.

Even key downs check out as both teams are in the top 30% of third down conversion rate allowed and red zone scoring percentage allowed. The red zone defenses should especially get attention with both units in the top five of the category.

For Notre Dame, red zone offense should be a big worry as the unit is in the bottom 43% of the category. The Nittany Lions' offense are solid in the category, but still sit outside the top 30 in red zone offense.

Frankly, this 45.5 total feels too low. Around 42.5 or 43.5 feels more appropriate as numberFire's college football game projections have the total reaching 43.4 points compared to College Football Nerds' model at 43 points. Our College Football Expert Picks is all over the unders for the semifinals.

Penn State Moneyline (+100)

The victor of this game could truly be a coin flip. At this time of the year when we are splitting hairs, siding with the more talented team can yield results. Of the two, Penn State has more NFL dudes on this roster.

At quarterback, Drew Allar is making noise as an NFL prospect; he even has the potential to crack the top five or six picks in this cycle if he was to declare. Tyler Warren won the Kwalick-Clark Tight End of the Year award and ranks 17th in NFL Mock Draft Data Base's 2025 Consensus Big Board. The best defensive end in college football, Abdul Carter, is also sixth on the big board. As seen in our Austin Swaim's 2025 NFL mock draft, some Lions will likely be drafted in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

However, my biggest worry for this pick is the status of Carter, who injured his shoulder in the Fiesta Bowl. Coach James Franklin stated Carter will be a game-time decision, but PSU expects him to play. With that in mind, the Nittany Lions' pass rush should get home as they have Pro Football Focus' 12th-best pass rushing grade compared to Notre Dame ranking 71st in pass blocking grade.

Considering both defenses are in the top five of EPA allowed per rushing attempt, someone is going to have to find some success through the air; that could the difference in who wins. The duo of Allar and Warren is simply something the Fighting Irish cannot match.

Plus, turnovers should hold a ton of weight in a potential low-scoring bout. If that Penn State pass rush is getting home, the chance for takeaways increase. The Lions take care of the ball by sitting in the top 17% of turnovers per game. PSU can still avoid turnovers against a ball hawking secondary led by the Irish's safety Xavier Watts (six interceptions). The Nittany Lions boasting a better red zone offense, as mentioned, is the icing on the cake.

Tyler Warren Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

In line with our thoughts on the Nittany Lions moneyline, Warren is going to have to make a difference for a win.

Getting open against Notre Dame's exceptional safety duo of Watts and Adon Shuler will be easier said than done. Warren still got his against other exceptional pass defenses, though. The Ohio State Buckeyes (2nd), Oregon Ducks (4th), and Minnesota Golden Gophers (10th) were all opponents in the top 10 of EPA allowed per drop back. Over this three-game sample size, Warren logged 77.7 receiving yards per game.

While the Fighting Irish have the best pass defense in EPA allowed per drop back, there should still be some confidence in Allar for this game. He boasts elite NFL talent and just put up his best passing grade (75.2) in the Fiesta Bowl since Week 12 (83.2).

Warren is one of one, making this pick a little difficult to gauge. Frankly, Notre Dame hasn't seen a tight end like Warren, or a tight end with this kind of workload. He has 98 of PSU's 280 catches (35.0%); the next highest mark is 46 receptions from wideout Harrison Wallace III.

We know Warren is going to get his targets, and after reaching 65 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, I'm firmly on over 63.5 receiving yards for the Lions' superstar tight end.

The receiving prop was set at 65.5 as of Tuesday morning. With the line moving down two yards, I'm liking the over even more.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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