College Football Playoff Expert Picks: Best Bets and Predictions for the Quarterfinals
After a lackluster opening round, we've got some potential bangers in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs.
Which bets stand out across the four games on New Year's Eve and Day?
Below, FanDuel Research's college football writers lay out their favorite spreads and totals for the round in FanDuel Sportsbook's college football odds. Let's dig in and see which bets they like most.
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Expert Betting Picks
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Spread/Moneyline: Penn State -11.5 (-108)
Despite the Boise State Broncos' previous magic in a Fiesta Bowl, if the argument for an 11.5-point underdog is based around an elite running game against the nation's sixth-best rush D on an EPA basis, I'm not particularly interested.
The Penn State Nittany Lions salted away their first CFP game quickly on the basis of two pick-sixes, but Drew Allar can certainly carve up a Boise defense that allowed 7.6 passing YPA (82nd in FBS) against weak Mountain West competition.
Total: Ohio State-Oregon Under 55.5 Points (-115)
The Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks combined for 63 points in their first meeting, but it was on the basis of unusual chunk plays. 11 different players had a 20-plus-yard rush or reception.
They're still both bottom-60 schools in seconds per play, and I can't see both of these defenses -- especially Ohio State's top defensive EPA margin in the country -- getting torched again.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Spread/Moneyline: Notre Dame Moneyline (-102)
Moneyline
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish to make the championship game (+260) has been my favorite futures bet since the College Football Playoff bracket was revealed. I'm not backing down now following an impressive win over the Indiana Hoosiers.
Notre Dame will face the Georgia Bulldogs' backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. The Fighting Irish are already perceived to be the better team, ranked fourth in NET EPA per play while Georgia is eighth, and this doesn't account for Carson Beck being out. Notre Dame has held teams in the top 10 of EPA per rushing attempt to 3.2 yards per carry. The Bulldogs' offense will likely be in a big trouble if they can't run the ball.
numberFire's college football game projection has Notre Dame winning 24.0-22.4.
Total: Penn State Over 33.5 Points (-112)
The Penn State Nittany Lions are logging 39.7 PPG over their last three games, and this included facing two teams in the top 11 of EPA allowed per play. The Boise State Broncos are 62nd in the category and sit 53rd in EPA allowed per drop back. Penn State's passing attack continues to hit big plays by ranking second in EPA per drop back.
Skyler Carlin, Writer
Spread/Moneyline: Oregon Moneyline (+112)
Even though the Ohio State Buckeyes are first in EPA margin (0.281), there's a reason why the Oregon Ducks earned a first-round bye in the playoffs and are the lone unbeaten team remaining. Besides the fact that Oregon already defeated Ohio State earlier this year, Dillon Gabriel's experience and efficiency through the air -- along with Will Howard turning the ball over four times across his last three starts -- is enough for me to take the Ducks to advance beyond the quarterfinals.
Total: Arizona State Over 19.5 Points (-114)
The Texas Longhorns currently have the shortest odds to win the National Championship (+210), but I believe the Arizona State Sun Devils can keep things close and put up a decent number of points versus Texas in the Peach Bowl. Although Cam Skattebo is the focal point of Arizona State's offense and they are 12th in EPA per rushing attempt (0.079), quarterback Sam Leavitt has been solid this season, helping the Sun Devils sit at 15th in expected points added per drop back (0.088), which has led to them scoring the 26th-most points per game and 22-plus points in 12 of their 13 contests.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $250 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which bets stand out to you across the quarterfinals? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college football betting odds to see the full menu of options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.