College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/16/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests now in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

Week 3 features quite a few distant home underdogs. Figuring out which ones can keep their games closer than advertised could go a long way to figuring out the best games to stack in DFS. We've also seen most teams play a decently competitive game to this stage, so the market share data is becoming even more clear.

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

We have just two totals over 60.0, so this week is a good one to lean into players with great roles over games that might go bananas.

One is the Alabama Crimson Tide's predictable blowout of the lowly South Florida Bulls, so that lofty total might be encroached by backups. We've also got some market share worries between the TCU Horned Frogs and Houston Cougars, but we'll dive into a few vital pieces of that game.

I think my favorite contest is the 57.5-point total between the Syracuse Orange and the Purdue Boilermakers. Beyond the game environment, we've got so many top-shelf studs that already have documented elite roles.

The only games I'm largely crossing off are the Georgia Bulldogs' projected rout of the South Carolina Gamecocks. Georgia's migraine-inducing market shares haven't changed in 2023, so there's no point going there in a blowout. Plus, the low total between the Florida State Seminoles and inept Boston College Eagles offense doesn't exactly spell a fantasy-friendly environment.

Quarterbacks

Key Takeaways

• I'd peg Jayden Daniels ($11,000) as the top overall QB on the slate with blowout concerns for the two guys north of him in salary.
  • Daniels has a great mix of efficiency (9.9 YPA) and rushing upside (61.0 yards per game) in an environment the LSU Tigers are projected to control.
• With that said, Joe Milton III ($10,600) has conceivable upside in my favorite game. It's just a bit concerning his YPA (6.8) is so low through two meetings with dreadful defenses. The Florida Gators' is closer to average
  • Milton's rushing activity might also significantly increase in their first competitive game of the season.
• With odd market shares behind them, Chandler Morris ($10,500) and Donovan Smith ($10,200) are the two safest ways to access TCU-Houston.
  • Smith's low YPA (6.6) through meetings with the Rice Owls and UTSA Roadrunners are beyond concerning, though. I heavily prefer Morris, who flashed for 26.2 FanDuel points in their opener.
• Drake Maye ($9,500) wasn't someone I pegged for a four-digit salary at any point, but his struggles last week combined with a difficult matchup against the Minnesota Golden Gophers' excellent defense and glacial pace could mean a fade.
• I wouldn't settle for a pocket passer at any salary this week, including Michael Penix Jr. ($12,400).
  • This slate is loaded with mid-range rushing threats like Will Howard ($10,000), Garrett Shrader ($9,800), KJ Jefferson ($9,200), Garrett Greene ($9,000), and Hudson Card ($8,500) to envision one or two of them not emerging with monstrous days in competitive contests -- in addition to the names mentioned thus far that all run.

Running Backs

Key Takeaways

• Even though the efficiency wasn't awesome for Quinshon Judkins ($9,900) last week, his role is unbelievable. He handled 18 of the 20 running back carries with another five targets to boot. The spread is a concern with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in town, but he could go nuclear in a half.
• Jo'Quavious Marks ($8,900) has a role that isn't even comparable to others. He's handled 58.6% of the Mississippi State Bulldogs' carries and also has a 21.4% target share. He is their entire offense and pairs well with Daniels.
• The battle between the Syracuse and Purdue likely leads to a ton of goal-line work for LeQuint Allen ($8,500) and Devin Mockabee ($8,400). Allen punched in 3 scores on 12 carries in last week's rout. Mockabee also has three scores against stiffer competition this season.
• Emani Bailey ($8,200) lags a bit behind our top four despite a solid 50.9% rush share to this point. Transfer Trey Sanders ($7,900) vultured most of the goal-line work against the Colorado Buffaloes. It's a great game, but the two should be capped by each other.
• I'd be remiss to not mention Darius Taylor ($7,900) got 33 carries last week to 15 for Sean Tyler ($6,000). That sort of ratio in a more competitive game could still leave Taylor over 20 attempts against UNC.
• We've got intriguing value options here, too.
  • AJ Green ($6,800) got 15 of 27 rushes last week from the Arkansas Razorbacks' backfield in light of Raheim Sanders' injury. He was by far the most efficient at 5.5 YPA, too.
  • Cory Schrader ($6,600) has been an uninspiring but reliable option for two seasons. He's gotten 21.0 carries per game for the Missouri Tigers, which is good for the second-highest rush share on the slate (51.7%).
  • FanDuel salary makers just continue to leave CJ Donaldson Jr. ($5,500) in the dust. He got 18 of 24 running back carries in the opener against the Penn State Nittany Lions, turning it into an impressive 81 yards and a score.

Wide Receivers

Key Takeaways

• I'll be largely spending less salary here than the top QBs and RBs on the slate.
  • It certainly doesn't hurt that conclusion that Jalen McMillian ($10,300) and Rome Odunze ($10,100) are such lofty favorites with the Washington Huskies. Both could absolutely have solid day, but they were held under 25 FanDuel points last week in a blowout.
  • Florida State's Keon Coleman ($9,600) similarly has a 28.6% target share, which is awesome. His light projected workload against B.C.? A little less so.
• Brian Thomas Jr. ($9,400) has a peculiar salary when his target share (23.1%) lags quite a bit behind projected first-rounder Malik Nabers ($8,100), who leads the Tigers with a 28.9% share. I'd prefer Nabers straight up -- much less at salary.
• We were wondering who'd replace Tank Dell in Houston, and it's apparently Matthew Golden ($8,900). Golden's 28.9% target share leads the team but Samuel Brown ($8,500) is involved enough (23.5%) to consider.
• I love schools that can encapsulate most of their production in one or two players, and Mizzou has. In addition to Schrader, Luther Burden III ($7,600) has accounted for 49.1% of the team's passing yards. No quarterback is necessary.
• Milton can be run back with Ricky Pearsall ($7,500), who is the undisputed top target for Florida. Pearsall's 32.5% target share trails only Burden on the slate.
• The Kansas State Wildcats don't go to the air a ton, but Phillip Brooks ($7,800) has gotten eight targets per game when they have. They'll likely pass more this year with Howard the full-time starter and Deuce Vaughn off to the NFL.
• The value bin does have some names, but running back is certainly a better place to save.
  • Lideatrick Griffin ($7,200) has a 29.6% target share for Miss State in a game where we know we'll have Daniels, Marks, and Nabors. He's another option to stack.
  • Isaiah Williams ($6,100) had a 26.9% share for the Illinois Fighting Illini last year, so his 31.0% share to open 2023 is no fluke. The game isn't great, but his salary is.
  • Devin Carter ($5,700) caught six of eight targets in WVU's opener before sitting last week against FCS Duquesne. He's expected back this week.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.