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College Football Betting Picks for Week 9

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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College Football Betting Picks for Week 9

Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

After back-to-back weeks with top-five collisions, Week 9 does not feature the same kind of stakes. However, the SEC is providing three more top-25 matchups. Plus, the Big Ten features one top-25 clash, the site of College GameDay, and a tough road test for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Fans continue to benefit from a new era of college football as another juicy slate is only days away.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Best Bets for Week 9

Washington Huskies at No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana Over 30.5 Points (-114)

Bloomington, Indiana will host College GameDay for the first time over the event's 38-year history. It's with good reason as the Indiana Hoosiers are enjoying their first 7-0 start since 1967 -- which is the last time IU reached nine wins. On their quest to reach double-digit wins for the first time in program history, the Hoosiers carry +200 odds to make the College Football Playoff.

Week 9's challenge comes against the Washington Huskies, who comes off a much-needed bye after losing by 24 points against the Iowa Hawkeyes as only three-point underdogs.

Washington is a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team, making Indiana a 6.5-point favorite. However, this spread could seem a bit high considering IU's starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke is doubtful with a thumb injury.

The Hoosiers seem to have a quality backup in Tayven Jackson, though. He's a former four-start recruit and was an exciting transfer get from the Tennessee Volunteers for this program's former coach, Tom Allen.

Jackson mostly struggled while posting a shade over 900 passing yards last season, but he's logged a 77.7 player grade and 74.3 passing grade at Pro Football Focus over a small sample size this season. He started in the second half of last week's 56-7 blowout win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers, posting 91 passing yards and two touchdowns on 11.4 yards per passing attempt.

Jackson will be supported by a sound run game that logs 5.0 yards per rushing attempt (top 21%) backed by Justice Ellison (514 rushing yards; 7.0 yards per carry) and Ty Son Lawton (393 rushing yards; 5.2 yards per carry). The offensive line also ranks within the top 15 of PFF's run and pass blocking grades.

Indiana Total Points

Over

Meanwhile, Washington just gave up 220 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry in its last outing against Iowa. The Huskies' run defense also ranks 64th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, via College Football Insiders. If Indiana is easily running the ball, backup QB Jackson should be just fine.

numberFire's game projections have the Hoosiers winning 32.4-24.7. College Football Nerds suggests a larger margin at 34.4-20.2 in favor of IU. If Rourke was playing, I would expect this one to reach a double-digit margin. However, Jackson is an unknown factor -- even with promising numbers in a small sample size. The common factor here is Indiana surpasses the 30-point mark, making over 30.5 points a good prop bet.

We also shouldn't overlook that the Hoosiers are outside the top 20 in EPA allowed per play in all three major defensive categories. They are 31st in EPA allowed per drop back, and Washington touts the best passing attack that Indiana will see thus far. The last time that the Hoosiers faced a team within the top 40 of EPA per drop back, the Maryland Terrapins approached 300 passing yards while posting 28 points. This defense could prevent a cover, further pointing to that team total.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns at No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores

Texas -19.5 (-104)

The Texas Longhorns come off their first loss of the season and now carry the third-shortest odds to win the national championship (+500). A 15-point loss at home against the Georgia Bulldogs is a failure by all accounts, but there were some positives from this game.

This score implies that the Longhorns' defense struggled, but that was not the case as Georgia recorded only 4.0 yards per play, 4.3 yards per passing attempt, and 3.6 yards per carry. The Bulldogs enjoyed several short fields thanks to Texas' four turnovers. The Longhorns' defense did a pretty good job of holding strong, forcing Georgia into three field goal attempts.

Defense was my biggest question surrounding Texas ahead of this big-time matchup. The pass defense's performance was especially encouraging because the Bulldogs' air attack was the best Texas had seen thus far.

That's a huge help ahead of a road test against the Vanderbilt Commodores, who log 9.2 yards per passing attempt (10th-most). Quarterback Diego Pavia has provided Vanderbilt with some splash performances, including 252 passing yards and 12.6 yards per passing attempt in the upset win over the Alabama Crimson Tide.

After beating the Ball State Cardinals by only 10 points as nearly a four-touchdown favorite last week, this Commodores team still has clear concerns. This is the same squad that chooses to carry the 13th-highest run play rate in the country despite logging only 3.6 yards per rushing attempt (bottom 30%).

Texas leads the country with only 9.7 points per game and 3.6 yards per play allowed. Feasting against an inefficient run game is in play, and the pass defense is allowing the second-fewest EPA per drop back and comes off a good performance against Georgia -- who is logging almost 300 passing yards per game.

Alternate Spread
Texas (-19.5)

Vandy ranks 82nd in EPA per play allowed compared to 16th in EPA on offense. The Longhorns shouldn't have problems scoring, especially through the air with 8.6 yards per passing attempt (top 13%) while the Dores are giving up 7.7 yards per passing attempt (bottom 35%). Probably the biggest worry from the Georgia loss was the offensive line's performance, but Vanderbilt ranks 114th in PFF's pass rushing grade.

Ultimately, this is a ticked off Texas team after a disappointing showing last week. The Commodores continue to benefit from playing the SEC, vaulting into the AP Top 25 Poll despite a poor showing. I have no issue laying the points with the Longhorns at -18.5, though winning by 19 points would be a strange margin, making the -19.5 alternate spread an enticing pick (-104).

No. 8 LSU Tigers at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies

LSU Over 26.5 Points (-114)

The top matchup of the week is between the LSU Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies. Not only do we get to see Kyle Field at night, but this also brimming with stakes as LSU carries +100 odds to make the playoffs while Texas A&M is at +130.

While LSU to win outright (+114) has plenty of upside, Kyle Field makes it tough, and projections are contradicting as numberFire has A&M by four points while College Football Nerds is on the Tigers by about five points.

Instead, let's lean on LSU's 26.5-point prop. Texas A&M is allowing only 19.0 PPG (top 12%) and 4.9 yards per play (top 23%), and they rank 19th in EPA per play allowed. However, the Aggies' pass defense could be in trouble as it is 23rd in EPA allowed per drop back compared to 11th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt.

LSU Total Points

Over

LSU has one of the most fearsome passing attacks in America, ranking 9th in EPA per drop back while logging 7.8 yards per passing attempt (top 29%) and 323.8 passing yards per game (top 5%) paired with a 59.2% pass play rate (11th-highest).

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been excellent with a 85.7 player grade and 82.5 passing grade, via PFF. He has the luxury of arguably the best pass protection in the country, too, ranked 16th in PFF's pass blocking grade while offensive tackles Will Campbell (3rd) and Emery Jones Jr. (20th) are both among NFL Mock Draft Database's top-20 prospects in the 2025 Consensus Big Board.

The Aggies have yet to face a passing offense within the top 30 of EPA per drop back. The Tigers logged 29 points against the Mississippi Rebels (6th in EPA per play allowed) and 36 points when facing the South Carolina Gamecocks (11th in EPA per play allowed). Ole Miss and South Carolina are both within PFF's top four best pass rushing grades, yet the Tigers still hold the best quarterback sacked rate in CFB.

Nussmeier and Co. should be able to dig their claws in this A&M defense, exposing some of its flaws.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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