College Football Betting Picks for Saturday 11/4/23
With Tuesday's release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, the buzz aorund the gridiron has certainly intensified.
Entering CFB's Week 10, we officially have a new No. 1: the Ohio State Buckeyes. Does the mean the two-time reigning national champion Georgia Bulldogs take that personally and make a statement this weekend against the Missouri Tigers? We shall see.
Get ready for a heap of Big 12 action. The Kansas State Wildcats and Texas Longhorns will get together in Austin. Then in the afternoon window, there will be Bedlam; can the surging Oklahoma State Cowboys take down the rival Oklahoma Sooners?
For the best game in the evening slot, prepare for the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide to rumble in Tuscaloosa. Fireworks always seem to follow when those two match up.
Let's dive into Saturday's college football schedule with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable lines in traditional betting markets.
Keep in mind when reading that FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering a 50% parlay profit boost for all college football games from November 2 through November 4. See the site for stipulations and more details.
All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
College Football Betting Picks (11/4/23)
(#23) Kansas State Wildcats at (#7) Texas Longhorns
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Spread: TEX -4.5
- Moneyline: KSU +164/TEX -200
- Total: 49.5 (-105/-115)
After losing two of their first five games this season, Kansas State has built considerable momentum since then. Currently riding a three-game winning streak, the Wildcats have put up 41 points in back-to-back weeks now. Does that mean they are ready for an upset at Texas?
The Longhorns have major aspirations on their own in 2023. Texas commenced the current campaign by winning their first five games. Since then, the 'Horns have lost just a single contest, narrowly falling short in the Red River Rivalry versus Oklahoma.
It was a tight game the last time these two sides met on the football field. In 2022, Texas went into Manhattan, Kansas and held off a late threat from the Wildcats, winning 34-27. I am expecting a similar style battle this time around in the Lone Star's state capital.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 (-105)
If I were to play a side in this one, I'd likely be on the Longhorns against the spread (ATS). However, the way K-State has been scoring lately makes me a bit nervous. In effort to avoid a backdoor cover or something else weird, I love over 49.5 total points -- especially when listed with a near even-money payout of -105.
The Wildcats have produced 40.0 PPG over their current three-game heater. On the season, that figure is still impressive for Kansas State at 37.4 PPG (13th in FBS). In regards to Texas, they have not scored less than 30 points in any lone game this season.
My over 49.5 play is confidently supported by the CFB model at numberFire, where Texas shows an estimated winning score of 32.96-28.14. For you non-math majors, that gives nearly 10 points of cushion.
Army Black Knights at (#25) Air Force Falcons
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBSSN
- Spread: AF -18.5
- Moneyline: ARMY +680/AF -1100
- Total: 31.5 (-105/-115)
Ah, a service industry game. What is essentially just another contest for the common college football fan, these meetings typically wind up being a dream for the sports bettors. This weekend, coming at you from Denver's high elevation, the Army Black Knights and Air Force Falcons will go at it.
Combining the U.S. Military with gridiron pride, the two renowned academies will meet for the 57th head-to-head football game. As mentioned, this game will not be in Colorado Springs but hosted instead at Empower Field -- home of the Denver Broncos. Overall, the Falcons lead the rivalry series versus Army, 38-18-1.
Air Force has been one of the best storylines of the 2023-24 CFB season. Sitting at an undefeated 8-0, the Falcons are flying high atop the Mountain West right now. Astonishingly, they are averaging 300.4 rushing YPG in the current campaign; yes, you read that correctly. As for the Black Knights, they pound the rock for 190.4 yards per game.
Get ready for time to flow off the clock like a rushing waterfall.
Best Bet: Under 31.5 (-115)
When it comes to service academy games, there really is no play more wise than the under. Dating back to 2005, the under has gone 44-9-1 (81.5%) in games involving any combination of Army, Air Force and the Navy Midshipmen. Just two weeks ago, this was on full display when the Falcons triumphed over Navy, winning by the diminutive score of 17-6.
Ranked at No. 25 in the recent CFP standings, Air Force is absolutely a respected team amongst FBS. However, Army is managing just 20.1 PPG in 2023. Against their cadet brothers in the Mile High, I think that rate for the Black Knights goes even lower.
I'm no fool, so under 31.5 for Army-Air Force it is.
(#12) Missouri Tigers at (#2) Georgia Bulldogs
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Spread: UGA -15.5
- Moneyline: MIZ +530/UGA -780
- Total: 54.5 (-115/-105)
As alluded to, almighty Georgia has to feel somewhat slighted after falling from their top spot in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. The Bulldogs have gone without a loss since the 2021 SEC Championship Game, but they have an interesting matchup immediately ahead. Hosting Missouri, is Georgia poised to make a statement?
At 7-1 straight up (SU), the Tigers deserve some respect in this matchup. UGA may be back-to-back reigning champions, but their defense has tapered off this season compared to the two title years when they allowed an average of just 12.3 PPG.
Additionally, a similar squad from Missouri gave the Dawgs trouble in 2022. If it weren't for two 4Q rushing scores from Georgia, the Tigers would have snapped UGA's winning streak that night in Columbia.
It should be noted that the Bulldogs will still be without superstar tight end Brock Bowers (high ankle sprain). However, quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia offense did not seem deterred by that last weekend against the Florida Gators, winning 43-20.
Best Bet: Missouri +15.5 (-110)
I don't see the Dawgs going down between the hedges this Saturday, but 15.5 points is ambitious lay against an SEC opponent as talented as Mizzou. On ESPN's lastest CFB power index, Georgia (23.1 FPI) is ranked sixth in the nation while the Tigers (10.8 FPI) show up at 24th overall.
Not so different from Beck, Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook has game. Cook has shined in 2023, earning a 77.4 QBR behind 15 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. In last year's nail-biter versus Georgia, Cook played a clean game, completing 62.5% of passes. He'll need to be the X-Factor on Saturday if Missouri hopes to keep it close.
The CFB game projections at numberFire have this contest estimated right on the spread of 15.5 showing a Bulldog winning score of 36.19-21.66. That presents a calculated difference of 14.53 points. Boldly, I'll take those points with the Tigers.
(#9) Oklahoma Sooners at (#22) Oklahoma State Cowboys - Bedlam
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Spread: OU -5.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: OU -245/OKST +198
- Total: 61.5 (-105/-115)
In what will be the final iteration of "Bedlam" for the foreseeable future, you can guarantee Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will be champing at the bit to hit one another.
Both the Sooners and Cowboys are improved in 2023. After going 6-7 last season, Oklahoma has played to a 7-1 record. For Oklahoma State, they were at 7-6 a year ago, showing 6-2 in the current campaign. So, between head coach Brent Venables' bunch and head coach Mike Gundy's squad, who prevails?
Bedlam 2022 served as the final victory of the season for Oklahoma. In that contest, the Sooners kept Oklahoma State out of the end zone until the second half. This time around, OU will make it their prime objective to slow down Cowboy tailback Ollie Gordon III.
Best Bet: Under 61.5 (-115)
I expect this to be a physical game in Stillwater, and although the offenses are talented here, I don't think they get to 61.5 total points. OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a fantastic passer, and the Sooners may very well put up a big number on Oklahoma State. However, I'm just not sure the Cowboys can hold up their end of the scoring.
The Sooners are allowing only 18.9 PPG in 2023. Linebacker Danny Stutsman has been a beast, logging 11.5 TFL for Oklahoma thus far. It will be his highest priority to wreck Okie State's offensive gameplan. Regardless, under 61.5 points feels like the safest play for this season's rendition of Bedlam.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.