College Football Betting Picks for Friday 10/6/23
This won't be the most glamorous Friday slate of the college football season, but four Power 5 teams in action make it worth a watch.
First, the injury-riddled Kansas State Wildcats will continue to grind out wins in hopes of a chance to repeat as the Big 12 champions, and they'll draw an Oklahoma State Cowboys squad at its lowest point in a decade. Given the projected raucous environment in Stillwater, this one isn't written in ink.
In the nightcap, the Nebraska Cornhuskers face an important test against the Illinois Fighting Illini. Without many projected wins coming down the stretch, this could be a vital one for Big Red's bowl chances in Matt Rhule's first season.
Let's dive into Friday's slate with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable lines in traditional betting markets.
All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
College Football Betting Picks (10/6/23)
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Sooners
- Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
- TV: ESPN
- Spread: KSU -11.5
- Moneyline: KSU -465/OSU +360
- Total: 53.5
We knew Kansas State would feel the impact of losing Deuce Vaughn, but a quarterback injury to Will Howard ended their perfect season prematurely. He was barely able to move in a road loss to the Missouri Tigers, but they got back on track with a 44-31 win at home last week against the Central Florida Knights.
On the other side, the Pokes are already cooking up one of their more disappointing seasons in recent years. A 33-7 loss on home turf to the South Alabama Jaguars was followed by last week's dud. The anemic Iowa State Cyclones offense put up 34 points to down them 34-27.
Best Bet: Kansas State -11.5 (-112)
This is absolutely the "square" side to take the road favorite in a raucous environment, so nothing would surprise me in terms of tomfoolery, but K-State has such significant advantages offensively to not even be forced to lay two touchdowns.
numberFire's model predicts a final score of 46.6 to 22.6 in favor of the Wildcats. That's rendered it believing they cover this spread 78.1% of the time, and this one is also forecasted at 83.2% to go Over 53.5 (-110).
I don't feel as confident in the over when OSU is 58th of 133 FBS teams in yards per play allowed (5.4), and they're 54th in ESPN's SP+ defensive rankings. The issue for them in this game? Kansas State ranks 36th in ESPN's defensive SP+ and a stellar 7th on the offensive side of the ball. Their model believes K-State (16th overall) should have a ranking next to their name.
That's where I'm at. DJ Giddens has admirably replaced Deuce Vaughn and scored four times last week, and Howard looked back to full strength. On the opposite side, Oklahoma State's senior transfer at signal-caller, Alan Bowman, is completing just 53.0% of his passes with a 2:3 TD-INT ratio so far. Their schedule has been as easy as it will get.
When models align so strongly, it's fine to jump onto a public side. This number might not be high enough.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini
- Time: 8 p.m. EST
- TV: FS1
- Spread: ILL -3.5
- Moneyline: NEB +146/ILL -176
- Total: 43.5
The bowl fate of Matt Rhule's Huskers may come down to this game.
After key early-season losses to the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Colorado Buffaloes, they'll need to squeak out four Big 10 wins to qualify, and this will be one of their best chances as a 3.5-point underdog.
Their quarterback carousel, which started with Jeff Sims and Chubba Purdy, has now landed on Heinrich Haarberg. I don't hold any struggles against the playoff-contending Michigan Wolverines against him, but Haarberg also completed just 8 of 17 passes against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs two weeks ago. Nebraska used their size (and 48 rushes) to defeat the spunky Group of 5 squad.
They're traveling to face the Bret Bielema and the Illini in Champaign, and this is your classic Illinois team since he's been at the helm. They've got transfer Luke Altmeyer at quarterback struggling to a 5:7 TD-INT ratio, but Reggie Love III is crushing it on the ground, averaging 5.6 YPA. They'll play some defense, too.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-110)
The Illini are a weird bunch offensively, but I still think we can turn to this angle.
They're 20th-fastest in seconds per play (23.4) with a top-35 pass rate (53.8%), so you'd think we'd see more overs in their future despite the inefficiency in that department. However, their efficiency has come on the ground, and that's where Nebraska has been its best. They're 11th of 133 FBS schools in rushing YPA allowed (2.9).
Of course, Illinois' passing stats could be skewed because they had to face the Penn State Nittany Lions, Purdue Boilermakers, and Kansas Jayhawks in three of their first five contests, and those are three top-60 offenses to keep up with, per ESPN's model. For their own defense, Nebraska (87th) is a bit of a step back as you'd expect with their uncertainty under center.
Big Red hasn't eclipsed 14 points against a Power 5 team yet this season, including a date with the shoddy CU defense in Boulder. That does invite a play on Illinois -3.5 (-110), but I would totally understand anyone passing on that given Altmeyer would likely have to produce notable success through the air to widen the final margin.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.