College Football Best Bets: Friday Night, Week 3

The college football landscape has been reset for the 2024 season. The College Football Playoff (CFP) will have 12 teams for the first time, which features the five conference champions paired with the next seven highest-ranked teams. Conferences underwent major changes, as well. The Pac-12 is virtually no more while the SEC added two major brands and the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC all acquired several squads.

As if a shakeup in conference play wasn't intriguing enough, the stakes will also be heightened on a week-to-week basis with far more teams in contention for the CFP. Higher stakes could also generate more competitive games throughout the season, potentially impacting how we bet the sport.

Week 3 provides the smallest Friday night slate yet, but don't fret, the Friday lineup won't be this short for the remainder of the 2024 season. At least we get a quality top-25 Big 12 matchup between the Arizona Wildcats and Kansas State Wildcats, making up for the shortened slate.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for Friday's slate this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks

UNLV Rebels at Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas -9.5 (-113)

The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off a 23-17 loss against the Illinois Fighting Illini on the road, causing their odds to win the Big 12 to plummet to +1600. The UNLV Rebels, on the other hand, have surged following a 20-point win as underdogs against the Houston Cougars in Week 1. UNLV followed that with a 72-14 win over the Utah Tech Trailblazers.

This has led Kansas to be favored by only 7.5 points on Friday against UNLV. Quarterback Jalon Daniels had a no-show performance in Week 2's loss, finishing with a 44.9 Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade. That was only one week removed from a 90.5 grade and Daniels posted overall player grades of 78.0 or better from 2021 to 2023. We should expect more from the veteran QB, but UNLV is giving up only 6.0 passing yards per attempt while touting a 83.5 coverage grade (36th-best).

The Rebels' run defense has been rock-sold, as well, limiting opposing teams to only 2.1 yards per carry. UNLV's MO has been quite simple: dominate the run game. In fact, the Rebs have attempted a run on 77.6% of plays. For reference, the Air Force Falcons were the only team with a higher rushing play percentage in the 2023 season (85.4%). Gaining 6.3 yards per rushing attempt makes this UNLV ground attack a huge threat as the unit just reached 504 rushing yards (!) in its previous contest.

If the Jayhawks are to cover the spread, it starts with controlling the ground. Kansas has done well defending the run thus far, giving up only 2.5 yards per attempt and 77.0 rushing yards per contest. Boasting PFF's 13th-best team tackling grade certainly helps, as well.

Looking at the other side of the ball, the Rebels' run defense should still be in question. The unit gave up 4.3 yards per carry a season ago, last week UNLV faced an FCS opponent in Utah Tech, and Week 1's opponent -- Houston -- was in the bottom 36% of yards per rushing attempt in 2023. This will be the best run game the Rebels have seen by a mile, led by running back Devin Neal, who is logging 9.7 yards per carry. He's carrying a per-game average of 106.5 rushing yards, yet Neal is getting only 11.0 rushing attempts per contest. Compare this to Neal's 15.6 carries per game in 2023; Week 2's loss should be a lesson to run Neal more often.

Kansas winning the run game or at least holding its own wouldn't be that surprising. Plus, Daniels should be better than in Week 2, especially when we look at his career-long output.

Now, let's address perhaps the biggest concern for the Jayhawks: turnovers. Kansas is logging 3.0 giveaways per contest while UNLV is forcing 2.0 takeaways per game. Much of this can be credited to Daniels' dreadful start with four interceptions, three of which came in Week 2. This once again points to the Jayhawks getting back to the run game, limiting Daniels passing attempts. Kansas had a 60.6% rushing play rate in 2023 (12th-highest), but it attempted 32 passes to 33 rushing attempts in Week 2. The result was a loss. Getting back to Week 1's plan -- 44 carries to 21 passing attempts -- could be the recipe for success, leading to fewer turnovers. It seems like a no-brainer with the Jayhawks also holding PFF's top run block grade.

Models are fully in on Kansas covering the spread. MasseyRatings has KU projected to win by 10.0 while numberFire's game projections have the Jayhawks by 9.7 points. This line continues to move in Kansas' favor as it was 7.5 on Wednesday evening; give me the Jayhawks to cover.

No. 20 Arizona Wildcats at No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats

Under 59.5 Points (-110)

Let's dive into perhaps the best matchup across FBS for Week 3. Arizona -- a first-year member of the Big 12 -- will have its first meeting in program history with Kansas State.

Following a 61-39 season-opening win over the New Mexico Lobos, Arizona was in the spotlight thanks to 627 yards of offense, 422 passing yards from Noah Fifita, and 304 receiving yards from Tetairoa McMillan. Following Week 2, we have to step back and question how good U of A really is. The Wildcats were trailing Northern Arizona 10-6 at halftime and led only 13-10 going into the fourth quarter, ultimately winning 22-10. Keep in mind Arizona was favored by over 30 points for this one.

Meanwhile, we saw Kansas State go on the road and pull out a gritty win against the Tulane Green Wave. While the defense gave up 491 total yards and 342 passing yards, the Wildcats came out on top thanks to two takeaways and 215 rushing yards on 33 attempts (6.5 yards per carry). This puts KSU at 249.0 rushing yards per contest and 7.8 yards per carry through two weeks of play.

PFF currently has Kansas State with the eighth-best run grade across college football (out of 134 teams). Arizona's run defense has been a tale of two stories, giving up 5.5 yards per carry in Week 1 followed by 2.9 a week ago. Overall, the unit is looking solid with the 27th-best run defense grade.

Kansas State is currently 81st in coverage grade, as we saw the secondary struggle against Tulane. The combo of Fifita and McMillan spells big trouble. McMillan has a great shot of adding to his Biletnikoff Award resume, given to the nation's top wide receiver.

There's solid evidence for each offense to have success, explaining the 59.5-point total. However, the pace of each offense goes against the over. Arizona averages 26.4 seconds per play (top 43% for fewest seconds per play) while Kansas State is at 28.6 seconds per play (top 28% for most seconds per play).

If Arizona's passing game gets going, this should quickly lead to plenty of points. However, Kansas State's tendency to lean on the run is something we can lean on. No matter what, we will probably see KSU chew clock with a slow pace as it looks to protect its vulnerable secondary from Fifita and McMillan. A negative game script is the only factor that would probably force Kansas State to speed up, but I'm not banking on this after Arizona beat Northern Arizona by only 12 points in Week 2.

Considering the pace of play of each team (mainly KSU) paired with a high total, backing the under looks like the best bet. numberFire's projections have a four out of five star confidence level for the under, carrying a median projection of 51.0 points.

All customers get a 50% Profit Boost Token for any wager on either college football game happening September 13th — Arizona vs Kansas State OR UNLV vs Kansas! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.