College Football: Best Bets for LSU at USC

Labor Day weekend marks the grand return of college football, and the Sunday game is a doozy.

The No. 13 LSU Tigers and No. 23 USC Trojans will battle on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday, September 2nd, at 7:30 P.M. EST.

There are an eerie amount of similarities between these two teams, who enter their third year under a respected, credentialed head coach that didn't make many friends when leaving the head job at where they previously appeared in the College Football Playoff.

Both also have Heisman Trophies to show from the last two seasons despite consistent issues on defense that have plagued the win-loss record. In some ways, teams don't get more similar than these two, so it's no surprise oddsmakers are expecting a close game.

According to the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, LSU is a 4.5-point favorite for Monday's game, and the total is set at a whopping 64.5 points.

What are the best bets for this Week 1 showdown?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

LSU at USC Betting Picks

Under 34.5 Points in First Half (-130)

There's really no game I'm looking forward to more this weekend than this one. There's a crisis inbound for whichever third-year, underperforming coach takes another step back in a big game.

I've beat this contest to death while loving LSU -4.5 (-105) in our Week 1 college football expert picks. I also tipped LSU's Josh Williams to Score a Touchdown (-125) in my Week 1 college football player props to target. This is one more angle that might be slightly undervalued as both these teams should be dramatically improved on defense from last year.

Both Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley fired their defensive coordinators in January after that side of the ball let them down in Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams' final seasons with the teams. Beyond that, LSU now returns nine upperclassmen and two experienced sophomores on defense, and USC added five (!) upperclassmen defensive starters in the transfer portal entering their first season in the Big Ten.

This total is massive because both defenses last year were outside the top 90 in opponent yards per play (YPP). Last year, LSU was 12-1 to the over, and USC was 10-3. Last year, both of these schools had top-two picks from the 2024 NFL Draft at quarterback. That's just all not necessarily the case in 2024.

Especially with two new starting signal-callers in the mix, I'm expecting a far lower offensive output early in this game. The new clock rules in college football have slanted the games a bit toward the under early in the season, too.

Garrett Nussmeier Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)

Coinciding with the first-half under, I'd be surprised if Garrett Nussmeier tossed three-plus passing scores if LSU plays this game the way they should.

LSU was the very best team in the country running the ball last at 6.2 rushing YPA. On defense, USC surrendered 4.8 rushing YPA last year (106th in FBS) with just two of those new starters on defense coming in the front seven. By and large, the Tigers should still be able to ragdoll this Trojans defensive line.

Plus, if you're introducing a new defensive system, keeping possession of the ball and protecting them should be paramount. LSU was 74th of 133 FBS schools in seconds per play last year (26.3) with the Heisman winner under center. For as good as Nussmeier has looked in two straight bowl games with a passer rating of at least 135.0, he's almost certainly a downgrade from J.D.

Offensive tackle Will Campbell said LSU is ready for a "fist fight", and bringing that level of physicality and ball control doesn't bode well for Nussmeier's passing stats -- especially as a slight favorite in the game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.