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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 9

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 9

Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

The highlight of Friday night football actually comes from the Group of Five, not the Power Four. The Boise State Broncos, who hold -110 odds to make the College Football Playoff, get one of their toughest tests of the season against the UNLV Rebels -- a team that owns the second-shortest odds to win the Mountain West (+195). The Power Four also has two matchups on Friday, including the Louisville Cardinals against the Boston College Eagles and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights visiting the USC Trojans.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Best Bets for Week 9

Louisville Cardinals at Boston College Golden Eagles

Louisville -7.5 (-110)

After firmly being in the AP Top 25 Poll in Week 5, Louisville has hit a rough stretch, losing three of their last four contests. However, all the losses came against ranked opponents, and Friday's matchup against Boston College (62nd in numberFire's nERD-based power rankings) should bring a much more favorable matchup.

Before we dive into the stats, projection models are on the Cardinals for this one. numberFire's game projections have U of L winning 29.9-19.9 while College Football Nerds has the final at 31.0-15.7. Either way, we are getting a double-digit win for the Cards from both of those models, suggesting a cover on Friday.

Spread

Louisville

The stats are checking out, as well. A successful offensive showing for the Cards seems imminent as Louisville's total is set at 30.5 points -- which is right line with its 29.9-point and 31.0-point projections.

The Golden Eagles are giving up 5.7 yards per play (bottom 42%), 7.2 yards per passing attempt (bottom 50%), and 231.8 passing yards per game (bottom 44%). According to College Football Insiders' expected points added (EPA) per play, Boston College's defense is 55th in EPA allowed per play and 70th in EPA allowed per drop back.

Meanwhile, the Cards boast an imposing offense, logging 33.3 points per game (top 21%), 6.6 yards per play (top 11%), and 8.5 yards per passing attempt (top 14%). Louisville is also 13th in EPA per play and EPA per drop back. Quarterback Tyler Shough -- who holds a 89.3 player grade and 89.9 passing grade, per Pro Football Focus -- should continue to feast after pitching for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns last week.

Rounding out our pick, BC leans on the run with a 58.4% rushing attempt rate (top 19%). This plays right into U of L's talons as the Cardinals are 34th in EPA allowed per carry compared to 66th in EPA allowed per drop back. The Eagles are in the bottom 18% of pass-play rate, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos comes off his two worst PFF player grades of the season.

Louisville seems bound to bounce back as it still ranks 18th in net EPA per play. The Cardinals have the platform to take off on Friday ahead of Week 10's matchup with the Clemson Tigers.

No. 17 Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels

UNLV +3.5 (-115)

Boise State-UNLV is gearing up to feature some of the highest stakes among all the Friday night games we've had across college football this season. These are the two favorites of the Group of Five to make the playoffs, although the Broncos (-110) are far above the Rebels' +600 line to make the CFP.

The headlines out of the Mountain West have focused on Boise State and phenom Ashton Jeanty, who carries the shortest Heisman Trophy odds (+200). The Broncos also rank 16th in net EPA per play and pushed the No. 1 Oregon Ducks to the last second in Week 2's 37-34 loss. However, UNLV is being overlooked as the home team. The Rebels are 40th in net EPA per play -- sixth-best among the best for Group of Five teams.

About 82% of moneyline and spread picks are on the Broncos for this matchup. I'm more than OK with going against the public on this pick.

Spread

UNLV

numberFire's game projections have the Rebels winning 27.8-25.6 while College Football Nerds is favoring the Broncos, 37.1-34.6. Due to the difference in net EPA, UNLV straight up seems a little too bold, but the matchup is certainly there for the home team to cover.

First off, the Rebels rank 20th in EPA allowed per carry, compared to 45th in EPA allowed per drop back. As most of us know, Boise State is a run-heavy team (top 34% for play rate) led by Jeanty's absurd 208.0 rushing yards and 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game while racking up 9.9 yards per carry. Quarterback Maddux Madsen is logging only 211.2 passing yards per game as the Broncos rank 23rd in EPA per drop back compared to first in EPA per carry.

Don't sleep on UNLV's run game, either; the unit is in the top 3% of run-play rate and the top 18% with 5.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Rebels feature three ball carriers (Hajj-Malik Williams, Jai'Den Thomas, and Kylin James) who have more than 300 rushing yards on the year while racking up at least 5.7 yards per rushing attempt. Boise State's run defense (22nd) is barely behind UNLV's unit in EPA.

Overall, these are two teams rolling out a similar brand of football. Projections are on the 'dogs to cover, and the Rebels get to play in front of a home crowd. Give me UNLV to cover, and this could push toward an outright upset if the Rebels land splash plays through the air. Both pass defenses are firmly on the outside of the top 40 for EPA, and UNLV logs 8.7 yards per passing attempt (10%), compared to Boise's 7.6-yard average per attempt (top 37%).

Ricky White to Record 125+ Receiving Yards (+182)

Jeanty is going to be the star player taking headlines before this matchup -- as it should be given that he's piecing together one of the best running back seasons we've seen in a long time. But UNLV has a star, too, in wide receiver Ricky White.

In a run-heavy offense, White has still made his presence felt with 614 receiving yards (16th-most) and nine receiving touchdowns (tied for 2nd-most). He's caught fire over the last four games, averaging 9.0 catches and 122.0 receiving yards per contest. White's even landed on some NFL radars as NFL Draft Buzz has the Rebels' wideout ranked as the 16th-best receiver for the 2025 NFL Draft.

Ricky White (UNLV) - Alt Receiving Yds
Ricky White (UNLV) 125+ Yards

We briefly touched on Boise State's pass defense being worse than its run defense in EPA allowed per play. It becomes even more glaring when we look at other stats; Boise is giving up only 2.9 yards per rushing attempt (top 6%), compared to 8.3 yards per passing attempt (bottom 20%).

White could be the X-factor for UNLV to win this game. To keep the Broncos from completely loading the box, White has to come up big.

The Rebels feature one of the highest clips in yards per passing attempt in college football, and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams holds an 80.2 PFF passing grade this season. Boise State is allowing 305.6 passing yards per game (bottom 2%), but much of this is due to the Broncos grabbing big leads in high-scoring games. However, that yards per passing attempt allowed is still a glaring concern.

White carries a lofty 100.5 receiving yards prop for this game, but there's more than enough reason to have it that high -- so much so that I'm willing aim higher and take an alternate line. We've seen White reach at least 125 receiving yards in three of his last four outings. Considering the volume White has gotten over the last month, UNLV probably won't be shy about pushing the ball to its star WR and testing the Broncos' weakness in the secondary.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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