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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 8

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 8

Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

College football's Friday night slate hasn't showcased a potential playoff team in several weeks. That wait is over with the No. 2 Oregon Ducks and No. 13 Brigham Young Cougars on show in conference matchups on Friday. The ACC and Mountain West each have a matchup on tab, as well.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Best Bets for Week 8

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils

Duke -3.5 (+102)

The Florida State Seminoles have been a punching bag in the ACC, and I don't expect that to change on Friday against the Duke Blue Devils. FSU is 1-5 outright and 2-4 against the spread (ATS) while Duke is 5-1 and 3-2-1 ATS. With the Blue Devils also holding the home advantage, another cover is in the picture.

numberFire's college football projections are forecasting a score of 23.5-15.7 in favor of Duke. If correct, this holds a 66.5% implied probability (or -199 odds) for the Devils to come up with a cover. That's a huge difference compared to the current +102 odds.

The Seminoles' offense has been dreadful, putting up only 14.8 points per game (bottom 7%), 273.5 yards per game (bottom 6%), and 4.4 yards per play (bottom 6%). Despite only 6.4 yards per passing attempt (bottom 19%), FSU is in the top 12% of pass-play rate. Considering the Seminoles' 2.2 yards per carry (third-worst), it's no wonder they barely run the rock. Plus, constant negative game scripts is only elevating passing attempts.

Even with coach Mike Elko moving to the Texas A&M Aggies, Duke's exceptional defense is still present thanks to coach Manny Diaz. The unit is giving up only 20.4 PPG (top 19%) and 4.5 yards per play (top 9%). The Blue Devils are especially good against the pass with 4.9 yards per passing attempt allowed (2nd-fewest) while ranking 19th in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade. Duke is more than capable of shutting down this struggling FSU offense.

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Duke

When it comes to scoring, the Devils are in the top 30% in pass-play percentage. Transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy carries a PFF 74.1 player grade and 73.1 pass grade, and he could have all day in the pocket thanks to Duke's 16th-best PFF pass block grade. The Noles are in the bottom 30% of yards per passing attempt allowed.

The Blue Devils are carrying clear advantages in the passing game ahead of this matchup. Plus, Duke ranks 51st in team expected points added (EPA) per play while FSU is 116th in the category. Duke is just better and is fully capable of covering this 3.5-point spread.

No. 2 Oregon Ducks at Purdue Boilermakers

Oregon -28.5 (-110)
Oregon Over 44.5 Points (-132)

Since knocking off the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes by 29 points in the 2018 season, the Purdue Boilermakers have been consistently labeled as a trap game in the Big Ten, especially when teams have travel to West Lafayette. We saw this come to fruition twice in 2021 as Purdue knocked off the No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 3 Michigan State Spartans in the span of a month. No magic has happened over the last two seasons; can the Boilermakers knock off another top-ranked team with Oregon coming to town on Friday night?

Purdue has a couple of checkmarks in its favor. The Boilermakers get to be home for a primetime matchup, and perhaps the players will have extra juice in flashy new uniforms. However, we are talking about Purdue having to face one of the best teams across college football; the Boilers will need more than just noise and swag. The Ducks come off a massive top-three win over Ohio State and carry the fourth-shortest odds to win the national championship (+500).

While the Boilermakers have a history of pulling off upsets, they're a far cry from what they once were. Coach Jeff Brohm is no longer at Purdue to engineer these jaw-dropping wins. Since Ryan Walters took over for the 2023 season, the Boilermakers carry a 5-13 record. They've been even worse in his second season at 1-5. Before Week 7's narrow 50-49 loss against the Illinois Fighting Illini, Purdue lost its four previous games by an average margin of 35 points. They're in the bottom 19% of PPG scored and bottom 3% in PPG allowed, making them one of the worst Power Four teams.

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Oregon

The Boilermakers' struggling defense could make this one ugly. Oregon just dismantled Ohio State's defense -- which leads the nation in EPA allowed per play. The Ducks' offensive line had their best game of the season while quarterback Dillon Gabriel was thrust back into the Heisman conversation after logging 341 passing yards, 10.0 yards per passing attempt, and a 87.6 PFF player grade. Gabriel now holds the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds (+260).

This passing attack is looking more and more dangerous thanks to transfer wide receiver Evan Stewart's breakout game last week -- seven catches for 149 receiving yards and one touchdown. Oregon didn't even have starting wideout Traeshon Holden for the bulk of the game due to an unsportsmanlike ejection, yet the Ducks still cooked the Buckeyes' secondary.

Purdue is allowing 9.6 yards per passing attempt (bottom 4%) while ranking 127th in PFF coverage grade. Gabriel and his targets are in store for another huge outing. Plus, the Boilermakers are in the bottom 5% with 6.0 rushing yards allowed per carry, pointing to more success for an Oregon offense that totals 5.1 yards per carry (top 21%).

I'm struggling to find how Purdue, who is 128th in EPA allowed per play, can stop the Ducks' offense (11th in EPA per play). Along with a cover, give me Oregon to score over 44.5 points. College Football Nerds' model has the Ducks winning 52.3-13.8 on the road, checking both of our picks.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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