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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 6

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 6

The college football landscape has been reset for the 2024 season. The College Football Playoff (CFP) will have 12 teams for the first time, which features the five conference champions paired with the next seven highest-ranked teams. Conferences underwent major changes, as well. The Pac-12 is virtually no more while the SEC added two major brands and the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC all acquired several squads.

As if a shakeup in conference play wasn't intriguing enough, the stakes will also be heightened on a week-to-week basis with far more teams in contention for the CFP. Higher stakes could also generate more competitive games throughout the season, potentially impacting how we bet the sport.

Before we dig into the full slate on Saturday, Friday night has four games scheduled -- two of which are Power Four conference clashes. Two top-25 squads will be in action, as well.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for Friday night?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks

Houston Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs

Over 51.5 Points (-110)

The Houston Cougars against the TCU Horned Frogs is one of two Power Four matchups on the Friday night slate. This is a clash of contrasting styles, making the total an intriguing bet.

Houston scored only 10.4 points per game (bottom 3%) and generates 283.6 yards per contest (bottom 12%) while TCU is racking up 37.0 PPG (top 13%) and 476.5 yards per game (top 11%). The Cougars are also in the top 13% for the slowest paces in college football (seconds per play) while the Horned Frogs are in the top 13% for the quickest tempos.

Even with Houston's inability to score and its snail-like pace thus far, the total is still pretty high at 51.5. In fact, it still might not be enough as the over is shaping up to be the best side.

Starting with TCU's offense, the unit attempts the second-most passing attempts per game (44.5) in the nation along with the second-most passing yards per contest (381.5). Despite ranking 72nd in defensive SP+, per ESPN's SP+ rankings, the Cougs have actually defended the pass pretty well at 6.1 yards allowed per passing attempt (top 23%).

I'm not buying into this quite yet, though. Houston ranks 82nd in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade, and the Cougars have faced only one team within the top 50 of PFF's pass grade -- which was the Cincinnati Bearcats (22nd in the category). How did that game unfold? Houston lost 34-0 while giving up 11.2 yards per passing attempt.

Total Match Points

Over

As one of CFB's most efficient passing attacks -- top 18% in yards per passing attempt and 29th in PFF pass grade -- the Horned Frogs' offense should continue to hum.

Bringing home the over, TCU's defense has been far from good. The Frogs' D is currently 73rd (bottom 54%) in expected points added (EPA) per play, via College Football Insiders. The unit also ranks 58th in defensive SP+, compared to 16th in offensive SP+. Stopping the run has been the biggest challenge with opponents logging 4.9 yards per carry (bottom 28%). Meanwhile, the secondary is doing its part by holding teams to only 6.4 yards per passing attempt (top 27%).

This fits right in with Houston's offense, which logs more than 30 rushing attempts per game. We've seen one solid performance from the Cougars' offense, totaling 33 points in Week 3's win over the Rice Owls. The rushing attack led the way with the Cougs reaching 237 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry compared to only 142 passing yards.

Each offense has the ideal matchup to put up some points. numberFire's game projections are giving the over a 62.5% likelihood to hit, compared to the -110 odds for the over holding a 52.4% implied probability.

Michigan State Spartans at No. 6 Oregon Ducks

Oregon -13.5 1st Half Spread (-120)

Following a 38-7 loss against the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 5, the Michigan State Spartans get another tough date for Week 6 against the Oregon Ducks. MSU showed some promise a week ago against one of the nation's best defenses (Ohio State is second in EPA per play allowed); the Spartans managed to put up 8.0 yards per passing attempt. But following two first-half fumbles from MSU, the Spartans trailed 24-7 at half.

Turnovers have been crippling for Michigan State's offense this season. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has eight interceptions through five games (tied for the second-most). The Spartans cannot afford to keep giving up the ball in a tough road environment at Autzen Stadium.

Moving the ball will be difficult enough against Oregon. MSU mostly leans on the pass, ranking outside the top 100 in rushing attempts per contest. Meanwhile, the Ducks hold the eighth-best mark in EPA allowed per drop back. Oregon is also 17th in PFF pass rush grade while the Spartans rank 127th in PFF pass block grade. A quarterback who's careless with the ball under constant duress spells trouble.

1st Half Spread
Oregon

The Ducks' defense hasn't been the best at forcing turnovers, but the unit snagged two in last week's win. Excluding Week 3's lowly opponent Prairie View A&M, the Spartans are logging 1.5 turnovers per game in the first half. Against an exceptional pass defense paired with poor pass protection from Michigan State, Chiles might not be able to shake the interception bug.

With turnover woes and the inability to score (17.3 PPG), the Spartans look doomed this week. Frankly, I don't think this one will be close as the 23.5-point spread suggests. We should expect a fast start out of Oregon, which is further fueled by MSU sitting 95th in PFF coverage grade while the Ducks total 9.2 yards per passing attempt (top 11%).

Tez Johnson Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Coming into the season, Oregon's receiving unit was advertised as one of the most balanced rooms in the country. Adding Evan Stewart -- who was ranked as the fifth-overall transfer and second-best wideout via 247 Sports' Transfer Portal Rankings -- was certainly a big piece of the equation.

However, it's been incumbent receiver Tez Johnson, not Stewart, who has been turning heads.

Through four games, Stewart has posted only 162 total receiving yards and 40.5 receiving yards per contest -- putting his receiving yard prop at 42.5 for tonight. Johnson has the much more lofty prop at over/under 92.5 yards.

Tez Johnson (ORE) - Receiving Yds

Tez Johnson (ORE) Over
@
Tez Johnson (ORE) Under

Don't let this number scare you off from the over, though. Johnson has been electric, racking up 77.8 receiving yards per game. Most importantly, he's getting the most looks over his counterparts Stewart and Traeshon Holden. The senior wideout has reeled in 33 catches (8.3 per game); the next-best mark on the team is 15 receptions (3.8 per contest) held by Holden.

After logging only 5.5 yards per catch over his first two games, Tez is back to producing big plays with 12.2 yards per reception over the last two. His yards have skyrocketed to the tune of 115.5 receiving yards per game during that two-game span.

As previously mentioned, the Spartans are currently 95th in PFF coverage grade. Michigan State didn't do a good job limiting Ohio State's stud receivers a week ago, giving up 96 yards to Emeka Egbuka and 83 to Jeremiah Smith.

Riding the hot hand in the Ducks' receiver room should lead to success on Friday night. Johnson is the unit's most-used piece -- by a mile -- and his big-play ability gives him a chance to cruise past this prop.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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