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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 11

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 11

Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

Before Saturday's full slate of games, Friday night has four games on the schedule. This includes two Power Four matchups while the American Athletic Conference and Mountain West both feature late night contests, as well.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for Week 11's Friday night slate?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Week 11 Betting Picks

California Golden Bears at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest Under 23.5 Points (-118)

The California Golden Bears finally broke a four-game losing streak in Week 9 thanks to a 44-7 win over the Oregon State Beavers. For the second consecutive game, Cal gets to face a team on the outside of the top 80 in net EPA per play as it squares off with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Wake depends on throwing the ball, ranking in the top 33% of pass play rate while averaging 248.7 passing yards per game (top 36%) compared to 134.7 rushing yards per contest (bottom 35%). For an offense that ranks 69th in EPA per play while logging 5.1 yards per play (bottom 28%), the Golden Bears are far from a good matchup.

The Demon Deacons depend on solid offensive production, for their defense is 96th in EPA allowed per play. Cal's strength has been defense, giving up only 4.8 yards per play (top 13%) compared to averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense (bottom 48%). The Bears are much more vulnerable at defending the pass, though, surrendering 6.7 yards per passing attempt (top 33%) compared to 3.2 yards allowed per rushing attempt (9%).

While this favors Wake's offense, there should be some worries about turnovers. California forces 1.6 turnovers per game (top 31%) while cornerback Nohl Williams leads the nation in interceptions (six). The Demon Deacons log 1.6 giveaways per contest (bottom 39%), and quarterback Hank Bachmeier has recorded six interceptions over his previous five games.

WAKE Total Points

Under

Wake Forest has fell short of 24 points in two of its last three games, and neither opponent touted an allowed yards per play mark as good as the Bears. numberFire's game projections have the Demon Deacons scoring 22.0 points while College Football Nerds' prediction model has Wake mustering up only 13.6 points. Give me under 23.5 points for the home team in this ACC clash.

Iowa Hawkeyes at UCLA Bruins

Under 44.5 (-105)

Everything about the Iowa Hawkeyes against the UCLA Bruins screams a low-scoring game -- hence the 44.5 point total. Even with the low total, the under is still shaping up to be the best bet. Let's jump into the evidence.

Starting with pace of play, each team logs 29.3 seconds per play (top 9% for slowest tempos). Iowa carries the eighth-highest run play rate in the country, suggesting a constant running clock.

While UCLA sits in the top 13% of pass play rate, it still likes to milk the clock. The Hawkeyes also rank 12th in EPA allowed per drop back while giving up 6.6 yards per passing attempt (top 28%). The Bruins may be more prone to running the rock with Iowa ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per rushing attempt. UCLA also comes off a productive showing on the ground, racking up 139 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry.

As mentioned, Iowa's defense has the ability to take away the Bruins' strength on offense. The same can be said about the other side of the ball as UCLA gives up only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt (top 10%) and 100.4 rushing yards per contest (top 7%). The Bruins rank 36th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt compared to 56th in EPA allowed per drop back.

Total Match Points

Under

UCLA's measly totals of 18.6 points per game (bottom 12%) and 309.4 yards per game (bottom 13%) gives even more lift to the under.

numberFire has this combined total at 35.4 points, giving the under a 68.8% likelihood. For comparison, the current -105 line for the under has an implied probability of only 51.2%.

Kaleb Johnson Under 128.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

We've mentioned Iowa's high run play rate, but it's been extremely productive too. The Hawkeyes average 5.7 yards per carry (top 6%) and 220.1 rushing yards per contest (top 7%). Running back Kaleb Johnson is second in the nation with 1,279 rushing yards while totaling 7.5 yards per carry (tied for fourth-most).

He's tied for the fifth-highest rushing grade (90.1), per Pro Football Focus. Johnson is also second in college football with 898 rushing yards after contact. This has helped elevate the star back to the seventh-best running back for the 2025 NFL Draft, per NFL Mock Draft Database's 2025 Consensus Big Board.

However, Iowa's 15th-best mark in EPA per carry probably won't phase UCLA -- which is familiar with facing great rushing attacks. In fact, the Bruins faced the LSU Tigers, Indiana Hoosiers, Oregon Ducks, and Penn State Nittany Lions, who are all among the top 30 in EPA per carry. Over these four games, they gave up only 115.8 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. Only one running back reached the 100-yard mark during this span, as well, which was Oregon's Jordan James (fourth-best PFF rushing grade).

When the Hawkeyes have faced quality run defenses, they haven't been shy about limiting Johnson's carries. Over his past five games, he's reached 20 rushing attempts twice; both of these games were against teams who carried worse EPA allowed per rushing attempt marks compared to EPA allowed per drop back. Over the other three matchups, Johnson averaged only 97.7 rushing yards per game; all three clashes were against teams that touted better EPA allowed per carry compared to EPA allowed per drop back.

Kaleb Johnson (IOWA) - Rushing Yds

Kaleb Johnson (IOWA) Under

Iowa has seen only one team in the top 15 of yards allowed per rushing attempt, and it came against Ohio State Buckeyes, leading to only 86 rushing yards for Johnson. There's more than enough here to take under 128.5 rushing yards for Johnson.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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