College Football Best Bets and Player Props: Friday Night, Week 10

Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

Week 10's Friday slate is a bit underwhelming than what we're used to, with no Power Four schools in action. However, we still have a potential playoff team playing in the Boise State Broncos, who hold -140 odds to make the College Football Playoff. Across the three Group of Five matchups, let's dig into the odds.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for Friday night's action?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Week 10 Betting Picks

South Florida Bulls at Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic Moneyline (+116)

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) features a couple of bottom feeders with the South Florida Bulls going on the road against the Florida Atlantic Owls. Considering South Florida has failed to cover four consecutive games, there's value in backing the home team.

Plus, the spread is at only 2.5 points. If FAU can cover +2.5, you've got to like its chance of winning straight up (+116). That's exactly what numberFire's game projections are implying with a score of 25.3-24.2 in favor of the Bulls. If correct, this holds a 46.6% probability for the Owls to win outright (or +115 odds).

The projections check out, but what about the matchup itself? Let's look at the numbers.

Starting with EPA per play, USF ranks 112th in net EPA per play while FAU is 100th in the category. ESPN's SP+ rankings also has the two teams pretty close as the Bulls rank 102nd compared to the Owls at 106th.

South Florida mostly leans on the pass, ranking in the top 29% in pass play rate. But Florida Atlantic's defense strength is defending the pass as it's 109th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt compared to 69th in EPA allowed per drop back.

It's the same story on the other side of the ball, for the Bulls excel at stuffing the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry (bottom 47%) and ranking 84th in EPA allowed per carry. As you probably guessed, FAU depends on the run with a 55.6% run play rate (top 30%).

Nearly everything is pointing to a close game, but the turnover battle could get the home team over the hump. The Owls log 2.3 takeaways per contest (top 3%) while the Bulls are loose with the ball at 1.7 giveaways per contest (bottom 30%). FAU is carrying a +1.0 turnover margin per game (top 7%) while USF is at 0.0 (top 51%). Not only do the Owls have a home advantage, but they have a good shot of winning extra possessions, as well.

San Diego State Aztecs at No. 15 Boise State Broncos

Boise State -23.5 (-110)

We don't have to do much digging to figure out who's the better team in the San Diego State Aztecs -Boise State Broncos matchup. As a playoff contender, Boise State ranks 17th in net EPA per play while SDSU is 117th in the category.

There isn't much to like about the Aztecs, but their pass offense is usually their best route to success thanks to 7.2 yards per passing attempt (bottom 47%) compared to 3.1 yards per rushing attempt (bottom 8%). However, SDSU's leading wide receiver Louis Brown IV (379 receiving yards) was held out of last game after missing a team meeting, and quarterback Danny O'Neil comes off a mediocre showing with a 56.3 passing grade, via Pro Football Focus.

This should help alleviate some of the pressure off of Boise's struggling pass defense, which is surrendering 8.2 yards per passing attempt (bottom 20%) and ranks 37th in EPA allowed per drop back.

San Diego State's pass defense is solid, giving up 6.8 yards per passing attempt (top 35%). But it struggled in Week 9 as Washington State -- who is in the top 19% of yards per passing attempt -- averaged 9.5 yards per passing attempt. Ashton Jeanty and the run game understandably draw the headlines for the Broncos, but the offense is also producing 7.4 yards per passing attempt (top 43%). Quarterback Maddux Madsen has also rounded into form over his last three games, posting player grades of at least 64.0 in each contest.

We know what Jeanty is capable of, leading college football with 1,376 rushing yards and 8.7 yards per carry (leads back with 100+ carries). As the nation's top team in EPA per carry, Boise State's run game should feast against SDSU, which is 114th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt. The Aztecs are also allowing 4.3 yards per carry (bottom 44%) and 175.7 rushing yards per contest (bottom 32%).

This game is tailoring to Boise State's major strength -- dominating the run game. Between the Broncos' matchup on offense and San Diego State recording only 3.1 yards per carry (bottom 8%), this is shaping up to be a blowout win for Boise. numberFire's game projections have the Broncos winning 43.4-12.3, holding a 74.4% likelihood for covering the -23.5 spread. For reference, the current -110 odds for a cover is only a 52.4% implied probability.

Ashton Jeanty 200+ Rushing Yards (+130)

SDSU is tasked with facing college football's top rushing offense in EPA, which features the top back in America as Jeanty holds the fourth-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy (+450). Jeanty averages 6.4 yards after contact per rushing attempt; the second-best mark for backs with at least 50 attempts is 5.7. The superstar tailback is also tied for the third-most carries of 10+ rushing yards (29).

The Aztecs rank 52nd in PFF's tackling grade and 115th in run defense grade. Not a good recipe for a back that feasts on broken tackles.

Sure, San Diego State stopped the run last week, but was it against Jeanty? We've seen the Aztecs get shredded on the ground as Oregon State (237 rushing yards), California (275 rushing yards), and Wyoming (190 rushing yards) all featured heavy rushing attacks with at least 40 carries while reaching at least 190 rushing yards. These were all efficient days, too, for each team racked up at least 4.6 yards per rushing attempt.

This just looks like Boise State's season-long averages at 6.9 yards per carry (the most) and 263.7 rushing yards per contest (fourth-most). Jeanty takes the bulk of these with 59.8% of the Broncos' carries this season. We haven't seen Jeanty hit the 200-yard mark since October 12, but he feels due.

The biggest worry here could be getting enough touches in a potential blowout win. However, Jeanty has seen only two run defenses that rank 100th or worse in EPA allowed per carry. In this pair of matchups, he averaged 226.5 rushing yards per game and an absurd 13.7 yards per carry on 33 touches.

Backing any running back to reach 200 rushing yards is pretty bonkers, but Jeanty has been that good.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.