College Football: 3 Best Bets and Player Props for SMU at Penn State

Extra sets of eyeballs will always tune in to the last team that got in the dance. Fans of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Mississippi Rebels, and South Carolina Gamecocks will all watch with envy, presuming their squad could have fared better in Happy Valley than the SMU Mustangs will.

I don't know. The Penn State Nittany Lions are pretty good, losing to two B1G playoff schools by a combined 11 points. With home field advantage, the Nittany Lions are 8.5-point favorites, according to the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, with SMU-PSU's total set at 53.5 points.

How should we bet perhaps the most challenging game dynamic to forecast in the College Football Playoff's First Round?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

SMU at Penn State Betting Picks

Penn State Under 31.5 Points (-132)

This is a bit harrowing after Penn State just put up 37 points on one of the better defenses in the country, but Penn State also didn't get to play how Penn State desires to play.

PSU is 105th in seconds per play (27.9) for the entire season, so when they're ahead as this spread implies, they prefer to play slow. Two weeks ago, the Oregon Ducks had them in a 41-24 hole in the third quarter. Penn State ran 73 plays, which was up from a 66.9 per game average.

The Mustangs also might have a chance to make the Nittany Lions one-dimensional, and that'll hurt their scoring output. Southern Methodist is third in FBS in yards per carry allowed (2.8 YPC), which held against the Clemson Tigers' solid rushing attack. They had just 62 yards on the ground.

While Penn State's elite defense could also be a step too far for SMU, I definitely wanted to back this team total under encompassing a key number of 31. Even including the Oregon game, State is averaging just 25.0 points per game against five opponents that are in the top 65 of yards per play (YPP) allowed this season.

Kevin Jennings Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

If you're just now getting into college props, this is a good reminder that sacks count as negative rushing yards in college football.

That's why Kevin Jennings' rushing under is so appealing this weekend. If it were a matter of having the ability to scoot, Jennings has posted 31.8 rushing yards per game against SMU's schedule. That schedule hasn't included a win over a ranked team, and he needed a 24-yard breakaway to top this mark against Clemson two weeks ago.

Penn State is a bear to face for QB rushing yards. They're 33rd in FBS at 2.5 sacks per game, and their sack percentage (8.2%) ranks 23rd. I truly don't have any idea if SMU's pass protection can hold up facing such a different test than even Clemson posed.

Jennings has just 58 total rushing yards in the Mustangs' last five games on only 21 designed runs or scrambles. He's not extremely mobile to offset what surely will be some noise made by game-wrecking defensive end Abdul Carter and company.

Tyler Warren Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

SMU's notorious pass-funnel defense held up against Clemson, limiting the Tigers to just 62 total rushing yards. They got beat via the pass, and Penn State might have to do the same on Saturday.

If the Nittany Lions are headed to the air, Tyler Warren is by far the most likely target. The Mackey Award winner leads all players in the CFP First Round -- not just tight ends -- in target share (31.6%).

He's topped this yardage line in four of his last five games, catching at least six passes in all of them. Warren's yards per reception (12.2 YPR) is atypical for a big man, and he'll surely be busy if PSU struggles to run the ball.

If Warren was listed as a receiver on the depth chart in this matchup, I'd be stunned if his yardage prop was south of 90. He's a threat to find the century mark.

I've got the senior projected for 9.4 yards per reception in this matchup, meaning he'd need 7.5 catches at this mark. At a 79.3% catch rate, that's about 9.5 targets. That work seems reasonable in a pass-funnel matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.