College Football: 3 Best Bets and Player Props for Navy vs. Army

Following Championship Week, the Navy Midshipmen and the Army Black Knights get their own stage to celebrate one of college football's best rivalries. The time has come for the 125th meeting between Army and Navy with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET on Saturday at Northwest Stadium, home to the Washington Commanders.

The rivalry has been back and forth, as the Midshipmen won every game from 2002 to 2015, but the Black Knights are 6-2 in the series since 2016. The last three clashes have been like splitting hairs, with a total margin of only 13 points -- which also included 2022's double OT affair.

After back-to-back matchups with spreads within three points, 2024's matchup could feature a larger margin with No. 22 Army favored by 6.5 points. Still, this is one of the most anticipated matchups in years, for the Midshipmen carry an 8-3 record compared to the Knights' 11-1 mark.

What can we expect in the 125th edition of Army-Navy? Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the best bets for Saturday's bout.

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Navy vs. Army Betting Picks

Army -6.5 (-115)

A couple of common opponents are glaring when breaking down this game. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish thrashed both teams, taking down Navy 51-14 and Army 49-14. This doesn't do a whole lot for us, but each team facing the Tulane Green Wave is telling.

Tulane had an outside shot of pushing for the College Football Playoff a few weeks ago and ranks 34th in NET EPA per play. The Midshipmen lost 35-0 as seven-point underdogs against the Green Wave, and the Black Knights charged to a 35-14 win as five-point 'dogs when facing Tulane.

Over the last five games, Navy is 2-3 straight up and against the spread (ATS). A blowout loss against Notre Dame didn't phase Army, for it has won back-to-back games -- including that win over Tulane on December 6th.

College Football Insiders' NET EPA per play has these teams pretty even, though. The Black Knights rank 49th while the Midshipmen are 57th. Per usual, these teams share similar identities with each sitting among the top three highest rush-play rates.

With that said, what could make the difference in this rivalry? Army's defense is frankly more trustworthy.

The unit gives up 15.7 points per game (top 4%) and 5.1 yards per play (top 33%). Navy surrenders 23.4 PPG (top 33%) and 5.5 yards per play (top 50%). There's a drastic difference between these rush defenses, for the Midshipmen rank 83rd in EPA allowed per carry and give up 4.5 yards per rushing attempt (bottom 43%) . Meanwhile, the Knights are 28th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt and surrender 3.9 yards per carry (top 26%).

The significant difference in defense is where Army could thrive. College Football Nerds' prediction model have the Black Knights winning by about 11 points.

Army Over 23.5 Points (-112)

We've focused a lot on Navy's struggling defense. Along with Army to cover, we have a good pairing by taking the Knights to go over 23.5 points.

Army is averaging 32.1 PPG (top 22%) and has reached 24 points in 7 of the last 10 games. Totaling 32.0 PPG over its last two was particularly impressive against Tulane and the UTSA Roadrunners, two teams in the top 50 of EPA allowed per carry. The Midshipmen are far below this mark at 83rd.

This goes beyond just the run game. The Black Knights lead college football with 10.7 yards per passing attempt. Army is attempting a measly 8.0 passing attempts per game (you read that right). But the passes usually go for explosive plays, and Navy is 63rd in EPA allowed per drop back.

The turnover battle could lead to some short fields for the Knights, as well. Army gives up only 0.5 turnovers per game (the fewest) while Navy averages 1.2 (45th). The Black Knights boast a +1.1 turnover margin (fifth-highest).

Army should also win the key downs, carrying the 10th-highest third down conversion rate (48.2%). The Midshipmen are in the bottom 41% of third down conversion percentage allowed.

College Football Nerds have the Knights scoring 26 points, and numberFire's college football predictions have Army logging 25.5 points.

Bryson Daily to Score 2+ Touchdowns (-110)

This Black Knights offense is spearheaded by quarterback Bryson Daily. He's the team's leading rusher, sporting 264 carries for 1,480 rushing yards (5.6 yards per carry) and 29 rushing touchdowns (!!).

Don't expect Daily to air it out too much, for he logs only 6.5 passing attempts per game. His workload as a rusher isn't a worry, though, at 22.0 rushing attempts per game. This has even increased over his last five to the tune of 31.4 carries per contest.

Considering Navy's struggles to defend the run, Daily should have a huge day ahead -- hence his 124.5-rushing yard prop.

Daily is averaging 2.4 rushing touchdowns per game this season. Considering Army will likely finish around the mid to high 20s, I'm not bold enough to take Daily for three touchdowns (+290). Taking one player to score virtually every touchdown isn't the best bet. However, the -110 odds for two rushing touchdowns is still a solid pick.

The Knights' star signal-caller has reached two rushing touchdowns in 11 of 12 games and in 10 straight outings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.