College Basketball Betting Picks for Wednesday 12/27/23

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Chicago State Cougars at California Baptist Lancers

California Baptist -10.5 (-104)

California Baptist is miles better than Chicago State in most critical metrics. For example, the Lancers are 163rd in KenPom and 189th in Bart Torvik, and the Cougars are 312th and 290th. Chicago State is also 330th in KenPom's adjusted offensive rating (out of 362 teams) while Cal Baptist ranks 171st in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Lancers are heavy favorites for tonight's matchup with a 10.5-point spread and -580 odds for the moneyline. However, Cal Baptist has been dreadful against the spread (ATS) with a 2-7 record, and they've lost four consecutive games ATS. Do the Lancers have enough advantages to overcome their point spread struggles?

Both teams rank in the bottom 38% nationally in points per game (PPG), which suggests the under. The total sits at 135.5, the Cougars are averaging only 54.0 PPG over their previous two games, and Cal Baptist has eclipsed 70 points only once over their previous nine contests.

In a low-scoring game, free throws and the possession battle could be key. The Lancers could have both areas covered. They rank in the 85th percentile of free throws attempted per game, while Chicago State is in the bottom 46% of free throws allowed per game.

California Baptist ranks in the 72nd percentile for the fewest turnovers per game, and the Cougars average 14.2 turnovers per game (bottom 17%). The battle of the glass is yet another advantage for the Lancers. They are in the 92nd percentile for the best defensive rebounding percentage and in the 73rd percentile for the most offensive rebounds per game. Chicago State is in the bottom 13% of defensive rebounding percentage.

Ultimately, I believe Cal Baptist could finally be tracking for a cover. Neither offense has excelled, which puts more value on extra possessions and free throws. The Lancers could shine in both categories, leading to the point spread cover.

Morgan State Bears at Virginia Cavaliers

Under 131.5 (-105)

Following their 77-54 loss against Memphis, Virginia is hoping to get back on track against Morgan State. The Cavaliers should roll to a win against the Bears, who rank 343rd in KenPom.

However, will the margin be big enough for a point spread cover? Virginia is favored by 26.5 points and is 5-5 ATS over their last 10 contests.

As usual, we know the Cavaliers' defense is trustworthy with the third-best mark in adjusted defensive efficiency. Virginia is 143rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, though. The Cavs could simply lack the firepower to come up with the cover.

I'm leaning on the trustworthy unit -- Virginia's defense. How does this relate to the best pick for the matchup? The under for the 131.5 total could be the way to go.

The Bears have been one of the worst teams in college basketball and are among the bottom 13% in adjusted offensive efficiency. Morgan State also ranks in the bottom 24% in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), the bottom 6% in free throws attempted per game, and the bottom 9% in three-pointers attempted per game.

BYU -- who has the ninth-best adjusted defensive efficiency -- is the best defense that Morgan State has faced thus far. How did the Bears fare? Not well, as they recorded only 50 points while shooting 35.0% from the field and 21.4% from three.

Reece Beekman -- the reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year -- is an outstanding defender who could slow Morgan State's top scorer Wynston Tabbs (16.4 PPG). Beekman ranks among the nation's top 20 best Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings, per EvanMiya.

The Bears' lack of scoring against one of college basketball's most feared defenses could lead to the under. The under is 8-2 in the Cavaliers' previous 10 contests.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.