College Basketball Betting Picks for Wednesday 12/20/23
The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.
Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
College Basketball Best Bets
No. 10 Baylor Bears at No. 21 Duke Blue Devils
Over 154.5 (-105)
College basketball has two top-25 matchups tonight, including No. 10 Baylor against No. 21 Duke. The Bears are coming off a dreadful 88-64 loss against Michigan State in a game where they were 2.5-point favorites. Following back-to-back losses, the Blue Devils have found their footing with a two-game winning streak while going 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in that time.
This is a neutral site game in Madison Square Garden, so Duke will not have the Cameron Crazies behind them. Still, the Devils are favored by 2.5 points, likely due to Baylor's recent struggles.
The offenses could be at the forefront of this matchup. The Bears have KenPom's fourth-best mark in adjusted offensive efficiency while the Blue Devils have the ninth-best clip. Baylor averages 88.4 PPG (eighth-best) with a 59.0% effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which is the fifth-best mark nationally. Duke also boasts impressive stats with 81.6 PPG (85th percentile) paired with a 55.1 eFG% (89th percentile).
Both offenses rarely shoot threes as Duke is in the bottom 43% of attempted three-point shots per game while Baylor is in the bottom 36% of the category. The Devils are in the 86th percentile of two-point percentage, and the Bears are in the 84th percentile of the category.
Neither interior defense has been a strength, with both teams ranking outside the top 100 of opponent two-point percentage. Baylor's paint defense has lacked with Josh Ojianwuna (0.75) and Caleb Lohner (0.95) holding Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) of under 1.0, per EvanMiya.
Duke's Kyle Filipowski, who ranks sixth nationally in Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR), could shred the Bears' interior defense. The second-year center averages 18.4 PPG and 9.2 rebounds per game (RPG).
With both offenses touting impressive stats and with them facing underwhelming two-point defenses, this could be a shootout tonight.
Villanova Wildcats at No. 12 Creighton Bluejays
Creighton -8.5 (-120)
Villanova and Creighton collide for a Big East battle, but backing either side of the point spread could prove to be challenging. Both squads have dealt with the inconsistencies. For example, Villanova lost three consecutive games while going 0-3 ATS before December 9's win and cover over UCLA. Creighton had a stinker on December 13, losing 79-64 against UNLV as 13.5-point favorites.
However, the Bluejays could still be poised for a cover today despite their recent up-and-down play. They feature one of the nation's top offenses as it has the 11th-best adjusted offensive efficiency.
Creighton's three-point shooting may be at the forefront tonight as they attempt the 11th-most shots from deep per game, and the Wildcats rank in the bottom 23% of three-point attempts allowed per game. The Jays' sharpshooters, including Baylor Scheierman (18.5 PPG) and Steven Ashworth (8.5 PPG), could be difference makers in this one.
On the other side of the ball, Creighton is allowing 80.5 PPG over their previous two contests. Villanova also likes to shoot the three with 29.7 attempts per game (13th-best). The Bluejays' perimeter defense has been exceptional, holding opponents to only 16.8 three-point attempts per game (96th percentile).
With just 28.5 two-point attempts per game (bottom 2%), the Wildcats could simply lack the tools to attack the paint, which is where foes usually attack the Bluejays as Creighton gives up the most two-point attempts per game in the nation.
Ultimately, I believe the Bluejays will have a big advantage in the backcourt in this matchup. Scheierman (2.13 DPBR) and Trey Alexander (2.05 DBPR) have provided excellent defense that could limit Wildcats guards Justin Moore (13.3 PPG) and Jordan Longino (9.5 PPG).
No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Moneyline (+128)
No. 11 North Carolina, who comes off a 87-83 loss against Kentucky, is looking to bounce back in a neutral site game against No. 7 Oklahoma, who is 10-0 and 8-2 ATS. This is more like a home game for UNC with the clash taking place in the Charlotte Hornets' Spectrum Center.
This has made the Sooners an underdog at +128. With the Tar Heels on a two-game losing streak and losing three straight ATS, I like Oklahoma to pull off the upset.
As usual, North Carolina has relied on their scoring, owning the 10th-best adjusted offensive efficiency. The defense has struggled during the losing streak, giving up 87 points in back-to-back games. The Sooners are mostly known for their defense, which ranks ninth-best by adjusted efficiency. However, OU still has a sufficient offense, one that could find success today.
The Sooners are highly efficient on two-point looks, converting 60.5% of attempts (98th percentile). UNC has a weak paint defense, giving up 38.5 two-point shots per game (bottom 32%) while opponents shoot 49.4% on two-point looks (bottom 45%). Otega Oweh (14.9 PPG) and John Hugley IV (10.8 PPG), who have both attempted under 15 three-point shots on the season, could dominate the painted area for the Sooners.
The Tar Heels are not that efficient on offense, either, ranking outside the top 100 in eFG%. They rely on plenty of field goal attempts (67th percentile) and free throw attempts (99th percentile). Oklahoma looks to slow the game down, ranking among the top half in fewest field goal attempts and free throw attempts allowed per game.
By controlling the painted area and slowing down the pace of play, the Sooners could be on track to add to their undefeated win total.
Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.