College Basketball Betting: Houston Leaping Ahead in Race to Win Big 12

The Big 12 conference remains the cream of the crop in college basketball with 9 teams ranking within KenPom's top 40 teams. Since looking at the betting favorites to win the conference about two weeks ago, more shifts have occurred in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball conference odds.

Ahead of this weekend's slate of games -- which will surely cause more changes in the odds -- let's look at the latest lines for the Big 12 conference. One team is beginning to rise above the rest. Can anyone catch the clear favorite?

Big 12 Basketball Odds

Houston Cougars (-105)

In our last check in on the Big 12 odds, Houston was the betting favorite, but their odds have dropped quite a bit going from +230 to -105. So what has changed over the last two weeks of league play?

The Cougars are still KenPom's top-ranked team while boasting the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation. Their last four opponents have averaged only 58.0 points per game (PPG) while shooting only 35.5% from the field; this includes a ridiculous defensive showing against UCF on January 20th in which the Golden Knights shot only 7-of-44 from the floor (15.9%).

We know Houston can defend at the highest level while dominating the glass. The offense's improvement has been encouraging as the unit averaged 76.0 PPG in their last two games against top-25 opponents (Texas Tech & BYU). The Cougs also shot a combined 18 of 40 from three (45.0%) in the two contests.

Houston's scoring will likely keep coming from the backcourt as Jamal Shead (11.4 PPG) totaled 29 points on January 19th against Texas Tech and L.J. Cryer (15.6 PPG) logged 23 points on January 23rd against BYU. Paired with Emanuel Sharp (12.3 PPG), the Cougars' offense leans on a three-headed monster in the backcourt.

During the ongoing three-game winning streak, Houston also snapped a two-game losing streak on the road. The Cougs are the team to beat right now with their elite defense and rolling backcourt.

Kansas Jayhawks (+470)

At this point, anyone outside of Houston to win the Big 12 would generate good profit. After winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular-season title in three of the past four seasons, Kansas always figures to be a player.

I can see why the +470 odds would be an intriguing. This is still a team led by perhaps the best coach in America -- Bill Self -- and Kevin McCullar Jr. (20.0 PPG) and Hunter Dickinson (18.8 PPG) are playing like All-Americans. However, it's still hard to ignore how much the Jayhawks rely on just two players.

According to Bart Torvik, McCullar leads the team with a 26.8% usage rate and Dickinson is second at 24.6%. The two stars also combine for about 49.0% of Kansas' scoring production. I'm simply not a fan of the Jayhawks' formula and where they currently stand in various efficiency rankings. For example, Kansas is 18th in KenPom, which simply feels too low as the winner of the Big 12 will likely be a national title contender. Houston is +1000 to win the national championship while the Jayhawks are +2300 when looking at FanDuel's college basketball national champion odds.

Kansas' previous win over Cincinnati (74-69) provides some comfort, though. Dickinson had an off night with 10 points, and Johnny Furphy stepped up with 23 points. This puts the freshman wing at 17.0 PPG over his past three games. Could the Jayhawks' offense be more balanced going forward? It would certainly help their case for winning the Big 12.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+600)

Texas Tech is one of the most notable risers as they were +950 only two weeks ago. The Red Raiders are sitting atop the conference standings with a 4-1 Big 12 record. Getting the conference leader at +600 is hard to beat. But, can Texas Tech keep up this level of production?

Some alarms are set off when looking at the Red Raiders' efficiency marks -- which includes 29th in KenPom and 30th in Bart Torvik. This team has plenty of weaknesses like ranking outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding percentage and three-point shots allowed per game.

It's also important to consider Texas Tech's conference schedule thus far. They have defeated Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and BYU. Oklahoma State and Kansas State are among KenPom's bottom four teams in the Big 12, and Texas and BYU are both .500 or worse in league play.

The Red Raiders are about to kick off a three-game road trip against Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor, which all rank among KenPom's top 30 teams. This upcoming stretch could reveal just how legit Tech Tech really is.

Others

At 4-2 in conference play, Iowa State is another riser to keep an eye on. The Cyclones were +2000 to win the Big 12 about two weeks ago and now sit at +850. Tamin Lipsey, who ranks as EvanMiya's eighth-most valuable player in the nation, certainly helps ISU's chances of a conference title.

Baylor is in a bit of rut with back-to-back losses on the road. The Bears' +350 odds have spiked to +850. Along with Baylor, BYU is another top-15 KenPom team that's fading in the Big 12 race (+4000). The Cougars are 2-4 in league play and have lost two straight.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.