Chargers at Chiefs Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football

We have an AFC West battle on tap for Sunday Night Football between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are slight home favorites in what could be a lower-scoring game.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chargers at Chiefs NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

For a matchup featuring two playoff contenders, it's hard to feel super confident about our MVP choices beyond quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes ($16,000) and Justin Herbert ($15,000), who lead our NFL DFS projections by a sizable margin. Both are projected for 16+ FanDuel points, whereas everyone else is projected for 10 points or fewer.

The Chiefs are up to second in pass rate over expectation, and we've now seen Mahomes average 21.1 FanDuel points per game over his last six while logging 0.15 expected points added per drop back, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This isn't the easiest spot against a Chargers teams that fourth in schedule-adjusted pass defense, but Mahomes' passing yardage prop is set fairly high (246.5) despite the low total, which is a promising sign.

While Herbert is coming off a dud (7.98 FanDuel points) after being asked to throw just 23 times last week, prior to that he had averaged 19.5 FanDuel points per game and 0.09 expected points added per drop back across seven games since the Chargers' Week 5 bye. He's also added some upside with his legs lately, rushing for 29 or more yards four times and scoring a pair of rushing TDs in that time frame.

Kansas City is 5th in adjusted rush defense but 21st against the pass, so we ought to see Herbert take the air more this week, particularly as a road underdog at Arrowhead.

A lack of dominant workloads among the game's other players is the main reason it's hard to hone in on many other potential MVPs.

Travis Kelce ($13,000) is one of the only others projected for double-digit points, and after a dip in volume for a couple of weeks, his target share jumped back up to 28.9% off 13 looks in Week 13, putting him back in the range he's typically hovered around since the Rashee Rice injury.

Kelce's projected for a game-high 8.7 targets, though it's worth noting the Chargers have given up the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to TEs.

Isiah Pacheco ($12,000) returned last week, but his usage was disappointing, playing just 32.8% of the snaps while logging 7 carries and a single target for 49 scrimmage yards. Slotting him in at MVP is a leap of faith that he gets closer to the workload we saw in the opening two weeks where he averaged 17 rushes, 4 targets, and 94.5 scrimmage yards. While the Chargers haven't allowed a ton of fantasy points to running backs, they're just 18th in adjusted rush defense.

Ladd McConkey ($13,500) has been limited in practice this week, but if he plays, he belongs in the MVP conversation after posting an absurd 50.0% target share and 64.1% air yards share last week. Overall, he's up to a 24.9% target share and 29.8% air yards share over 12 games, and he's popped for 100+ receiving yards in 3 of them.

Flex Targets

Kareem Hunt ($11,500) -- Hunt led Kansas City's backfield in snap rate (40.3%) while recording 7 carries and 4 targets, but he was far less effective than Pacheco with just 15 scrimmage yards. It's fair to assume his role will continue to decrease with Pacheco back, which makes him a risky play at this salary.

Gus Edwards ($11,000) -- Edwards is the Chargers' lead back with J.K. Dobbins out, but that might not mean a whole lot after he logged just 6 carries and a target with a 53.3% snap rate. While he will theoretically earn more touches than that going forward if he's playing that many snaps, it's telling that his rushing yardage prop is set at just 31.5. Kansas City has allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs.

DeAndre Hopkins ($10,000) -- Hopkins has a disappointing 53.7% snap rate and 17.1% target share over the past five games, but he does lead the team in end zone target share (33.3%) in that sample. His role was solid in Week 13 with a 20.0% target share and 32.9% air yards share, and of his 9 targets, 6 were downfield looks (10+ air yards) and 2 were in the red zone. Although it's still hard to be totally sold on Hopkins without his playing time getting a bump, he's getting easier to trust.

Quentin Johnston ($9,500) -- Johnston has the Chargers' second-best target share (17.5%) over the past five games, but he's been trending in the wrong direction after putting up a goose egg in Week 12 and then accumulating just 12 yards last week. He's seen half the end zone targets over that five-game sample, though, and should be featured more if McConkey is out.

Xavier Worthy ($9,500) -- Curiously, the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster has coincided with Worthy seeing an uptick in target share to 16.2% over the past three games. Still, despite the blazing speed, he's really been more of a touchdown-or-bust play, as all five of his games with double-digit fantasy points have been due to TDs.

Matthew Wright ($9,000) and Cameron Dicker ($8,500) -- If this matchup's final score hovers around its 42.5 total, it wouldn't be shocking to see one of the kickers sneak onto the optimal lineup. Wright has scored 13 and 14 FanDuel points in his two starts, nailing 7-of-8 FGs. Dicker has been one of fantasy's most reliable kickers, averaging 10.5 points per game.

Noah Gray ($8,000) -- Gray's earned a decent 13.5% target share over the past three games, but his box-score results have mostly been boosted by a pair of two-touchdown outlier performances. He does have a 20.0% end zone target share in Hopkins' five full games, though.

Josh Palmer ($8,000) -- Palmer has secured just one touchdown this season, and that's the only time he's reached double-digit FanDuel points. He's seen a 13.9% target share since Johnston returned to the lineup in Week 9.

Kimani Vidal ($7,500) -- Vidal is strictly a dice roll after logging four carries on a 26.7% snap rate in Week 13, but he has a significantly lower salary than Edwards, and it's possible his opportunities go up as the No. 2 back.

Will Dissly ($7,000) -- Dissly might be one of the slate's better value options against a Chiefs D that's allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Dissly has a 14.6% target share since Johnston came back, and while he's scored a touchdown just once over those five games, he's got a solid 30.0% red zone target share.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.