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Champions League Betting: Will Manchester City Repeat?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

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The Champions League Knockout Round begins in February, where the remaining 16 teams will compete for European glory.

Not all of these teams have a great chance of winning it, so let's look at the top four teams who have a realistic shot of going all the way.

All odds found under the Champions League tab from the soccer odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines subject to change.

Champions League Betting Odds

Team
Odds
Manchester City+210
Bayern Munich+440
Real Madrid+600
Arsenal+600

Manchester City (+210)

Last season's winners are once again the favorites, with Manchester City seeking to be just the second team to win consecutive titles in the modern competition (after Real Madrid won three in a row between 2016 and 2018).

Man City are not quite as strong as they were last season. They are in second in the Premier League but have games in hand over Liverpool and Arsenal. At this point last season, they trailed Arsenal in the league table, as well. They ended up making quick work of the Premier League and also won the UCL and FA Cup, completing an impressive treble.

Their underlying numbers are also not as good this season. They finished last year with a +1.22 expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes, per FBRef's model. This season, they are down to +1.03.

Most of this campaign has been played without Kevin De Bruyne, one of City's best players. KDB is a huge difference maker in their team, as he is the creative force to set up Erling Haaland and company. They were also without Rodri for a bit in the center of midfield, and he is one of their most important players.

In addition to their excellent team, City are the favorites in part because of their Round of 16 opponents. They'll take on FC Copenhagen, the weakest team remaining in the competition. The defending champions are -380 favorites in the first leg away from home, so they have an excellent chance of advancing.

When fully healthy, Man City have few flaws, and they have arguably the best manager in the world. It's no surprise that they are the favorites.

Bayern Munich (+440)

The German giants, Bayern Munich last won the competition back in 2020. They have one of the strongest overall squads of any of the teams left in the competition.

Bayern lost in the quarterfinals last season after running into Man City. That tie wasn't close, as City were able to beat them 4-1 on aggregate. That result was likely a driving factor behind Bayern making some key offseason additions, and both players have fit in nicely.

Harry Kane joined the team and has an outstanding 23 goals in 19 Bundesliga games -- plus four goals in six Champions League matches. Kim Min-jae has been an excellent center-back, as Bayern have conceded the fewest xG in the Bundesliga this season.

Speaking of xG, Bayern's is excellent in league play by this metric. They are averaging a differential of +1.96 xG per 90 minutes, by far the best in Europe's top five leagues. The team in second is Inter Milan, who are at +1.29 per 90.

Bayern will face Lazio in the Round of 16 and are -220 favorites, the second-biggest favorite in this round (behind Man City). They are a very serious contender and have a manager in Thomas Tuchel who has made the final of this competition twice, winning it once.

Real Madrid (+600)

The "end boss" of the Champions League is Real Madrid. They've won the competition 14 times, including five in the last decade.

They got drawn against Manchester City in the semifinals last year and were dominated 4-0 in the second leg. That's part of the reason handicapping at this stage of the tournament is tough -- we are still at the mercy of the randomness of the draw.

As for Madrid, they are second in the La Liga table. They are also second in La Liga xG differential per 90 minutes.

The main star for this Real Madrid team has been a new arrival. Jude Bellingham has been excellent in his first campaign with the team, sitting tied for league lead with 14 goals. He doesn't play as a traditional striker but rather operates as an attacking midfielder who will make late runs into the box to score his goals.

It will be interesting to see how top teams handle a player like Bellingham. He scored twice against Barcelona earlier this season, and it could be difficult for other top teams to defend him.

A lot of the mainstays for Madrid's five titles in the last 10 years aren't with the team or are less relevant now. Luka Modric has made just nine starts out of 21 league matches this season while Toni Kroos has made 15. Another blow to their experience is David Alaba's torn ACL, which will likely keep him out for the rest of the season.

This historic club will put a lot of emphasis on this competition, per usual, as they are defined by Champions League success. However, they are still fighting for the La Liga title, so they can't devote all their attention to the Champions League at this point.

It's tough to ever write off Real Madrid, so getting them at +600 seems like a solid bet.

Arsenal (+600)

The only team on this list that has never won a UCL crown before, Arsenal come in with the same odds as Real Madrid.

Arsenal are third in the Premier League table and have the best xG differential per 90 minutes in the league. They finished second in the EPL last season in what was their best campaign since Arsene Wenger retired.

Under Wenger, Arsenal consistently made the Champions League and qualified for the knockout phase. However, they lost in the Round of 16 six seasons in a row. The last time they made the semifinals was back in 2009.

That's not to say that Arsenal don't have a chance of going deep this year. They won four of six matches in the group stage and are favorites to beat Porto in the Round of 16. If they get through that, they'll have a chance of getting a favorable draw, one that could aid their chances of going far in the tourney.

A worrying thing for Arsenal is their recent form. Before winning their last two Premier League games against weaker opponents, they had won just once in their previous seven matches.

This might be a year too early for Arsenal to win this competition, and if forced to choose between the two sides that are listed at +600, I'd side with Real Madrid.


Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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