Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 2/14/24: PSG Looks to Avoid Early Exit

Two more games take place on Wednesday, as the first legs of the Round of 16 continue.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

Champions League Betting: Wednesday 2/14/24

Bayern Munich at Lazio (3 PM ET)

Bayern Munich First Half (+115)

In 2021, Lazio made the knockout stage of the Champions League for the first time since 2000. In the Round of 16, they were eliminated by Bayern Munich 6-2 on aggregate.

They'll have their chance at revenge this season as Bayern are their opponents again. Unfortunately for the Italian side, they aren't in the best form to get past one of the best teams in Europe. They sit in eighth in Serie A, winning just 11 of 23 matches.

The underlying data doesn't look pretty for Lazio, either. They are eighth in expected goal (xG) differential in the league, per FBRef.com's model. Before Saturday, they had gone three games in a row without a win, ending the streak by beating 19th-placed Cagliari.

Bayern are coming off the biggest game of the Bundesliga season -- which they lost to Bayer Leverkusen, 3-0. That put them five points behind Leverkusen for the league lead.

That defeat plays into this handicap. Teams can react to a loss like this in two ways -- either they can go into a shell and kind of play safer or they can try to avenge the loss by going out super hard to get that taste out of their mouth.

With Bayern having won 11 Bundesliga titles in a row, they seem likely to have the mentality to go all out Wednesday and dominate from the start. It's not like they've been a bad team this season. They are still dominating in the Bundesliga with an xG differential of +1.79 per 90 minutes. That is -- by far -- the best in the big five European leagues (England, Germany, Italy, Spain and France).

Despite this match being on the road, Bayern are significant favorites (-155 full-match moneyline). Instead of taking that -155 number, I'm on Bayern to win the first half at +115 in hopes that they come out attacking early.

Real Sociedad at Paris St. Germain (3pm ET)

Paris St. Germain -1.5 (+200)

One of the biggest storylines in the Round of 16 over the last few seasons is Paris St. Germain failing in this round. They've lost at this point of the tournament five of the last seven seasons with some of them coming in the form of huge collapses.

PSG have been among the favorites in those previous seasons, and now, they have the fifth-best odds to win the Champions League. They are in the familiar position of being pretty much out of sight in Ligue 1 with an 11-point lead. That means they can turn their attention to the Champions League.

They've only lost three games all season, two of them being in this competition. Those games were arguably against a better opponent than they will face tonight.

Real Sociedad will travel to the French capital for this match. They've been in terrible form of late in domestic competitions, failing to win in their last four matches. They also haven't scored in any of those games.

PSG have the eighth-best xG differential per 90 minutes in the big five European leagues while Real Sociedad only have the sixth-best in La Liga. If the Spanish side continues to struggle to score goals, the French champions should easily be able to cover the spread.

Being -160 favorites just to win the game, the +200 to win by more than a goal seems fairly long. There is value in betting PSG -1.5, especially if Sociedad's scoring woes continue.

Player Props

Kylian Mbappe to Score (+100): Getting even money on one of the best players in the world to score at home is nice.

Kylian Mbappe has 20 goals in Ligue 1 this season, the second-most in Europe's big five leagues. Real Sociedad are a solid defensive team, but they don't often face someone as talented as Mbappe.

Another thing to keep in mind is the UEFA standard for a hand ball is different from something like the Premier League -- if that's the league you watch. They are much more strict of the definition of a hand ball, which leads to more penalties. That benefits the team's penalty taker, which is Mbappe in this case.

Leroy Sane to Assist (+210): We're getting a great price on Leroy Sane to set up a goal, especially in a game that we expect Bayern Munich to control.

Sane is the leader in both assists and expected assists in Europe's top five leagues. It helps that he plays with Harry Kane, who has been on fire this season. If Bayern are able to score a few goals against an inferior team, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sane be the provider.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.