Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 12/13/23: Barca Should Dominate Antwerp

The last day of this edition of the group stage is here. Let's see where we can find value in our last chance before the knockout stage.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Wednesday?

Champions League Betting: Wednesday 12/13/23

AC Milan at Newcastle (3 PM ET)

Under 2.5 Goals (+106)

These teams are hoping for a win and some help to make the knockout round. A win and a loss from Paris St. Germain would push either through, while Newcastle can also advance with a win and a PSG draw.

That doesn't necessarily mean that both teams will go all-out attack in this match. It isn't a good matchup for that, especially on the Newcastle side where there are many injuries.

Newcastle have scored five goals in five games in the Champions League. Four of those goals came in one match against PSG -- meaning they've scored just once in the other four games. They got blanked in the match against Milan the first time and created just 0.3 expected goals (xG), per FBRef.

In the past three matches in the Premier League, Newcastle have scored a combined two goals. The injuries have piled up, and they look like a tired team with not enough healthy bodies.

Milan have yet to score a goal away from home in the Champions League. They aren't a particularly high-scoring team. They've reached or exceeded three goals in a match only three times this season, all against teams in the bottom half of the Serie A table.

We saw some cautious approaches in some of the big matches on Tuesday. That could carry over to this game, especially given these two teams and their styles.

Barcelona at Antwerp (3 PM ET)

Barcelona -1.5 (+156)

One of the biggest mismatches on the slate takes us to Belgium, where we will see Barcelona face Antwerp. This match still means something for Barca, as there's a chance Shakhtar Donetsk could overtake them for the top spot in the group.

Barcelona are only fourth in La Liga after a loss last weekend. However, they have the best xG differential in Spain and the sixth-best xG differential per 90 minutes in Europe's top-five leagues.

In the first meeting between these two sides, Barca won 5-0 and won the xG battle 2.8-0.3. Antwerp have found things difficult in their first European campaign since 1958 -- they have lost every match and have been outscored 15-3. They're also not doing amazing in a weak Belgian Pro League, sitting in fourth place.

This game should be in Barca's hands easily, and they still have some level of incentive. The loss they suffered on the weekend could serve as some form of motivation, as well -- we saw a similar case for Bayern Munich on Tuesday when they had nothing to gain from a win.

Getting +156 odds on Barcelona to win by more than one goal against one of the worst teams in the group stage is a nice bet.

Player Props

Santiago Gimenez to Score (+120): Gimenez is tied for the lead in goals in the Eredivisie with 18. He also has two goals in three Champions League matches. He's playing away from home, but he gets a matchup against Celtic. The Scottish champions have allowed 14 goals in five matches in the Champions League this season.

Evanilson to Score (+145): Evanilson has been on fire in the Champions League, netting four goals in just 236 minutes. In league play, he's scored four goals in eight appearances. Porto are -240 home favorites in this game. They were able to beat Shakhtar, 3-1, away from home in their first meeting and should be able to win again, putting Evanilson in a good position to score in this match.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.