Champions League Betting Picks for Tuesday 12/12/23: Galatasaray in Must-Win Away Match

It's the final games of the group stage in the Champions League. Some teams have nothing to play for, while others have it all on the line to make the knockout round.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Tuesday?

UCL Betting: Tuesday 12/12/23

Galatasaray at FC Copenhagen (3 PM ET)

Galatasaray ML (+135)

This is one of the games where the winner will make the knockout round. However, if there is a draw, it leaves the potential for Manchester United to sneak into the second spot if United are able to win.

Galatasaray are a little bit underrated. Turkish teams typically have a lot of recognizable names that are towards the end of their career. However, this Galatasaray squad has more talent than the typical Turkish side, and they are currently 13-1-1 in the Turkish Super League.

Galatasaray have a ton of Champions League experience in their squad, while Copenhagen don't have much at all. In their first meeting, Galatasaray won the expected goal (xG) battle 1.1-0.6, via FBref.com. Now, that was in Turkey, but Galatasaray have consistently performed better than Copenhagen in this metric.

The interesting handicap angle for this match is that we are highly unlikely to see a draw. It's currently listed at +280, but there is a scenario where a draw doesn't do either team any good, and they will both push hard for the winner. That would favor Galatasaray, as they have a deeper squad that can utilize the bench more effectively.

Copenhagen have performed better in this group than anyone could have reasonably expected, getting at least one result against every other team. However, they average just 43.5% possession in Champions League matches, compared to 51.4% for Galatasaray.

I like Galatasaray at +135 odds in this spot/ They are the better side and have a huge incentive to go all out in this game.

Benfica at Red Bull Salzburg (3 PM ET)

Salzburg ML (+185)

We'll go with the home underdog for our next match. Both of these teams cannot make the next round, but RB Salzburg can lock up a spot in the Europa League with at least a point in this match.

The first time these teams played, Salzburg dominated away from home. They won by a score of 2-0 and had 3.3 xG compared to 1.5 allowed. This was the beginning of a rough group stage for Benfica -- they've picked up just one point in five matches. They also have a stunningly awful xG differential of -9.5 in those five matches.

Benfica have little incentive to try to go all out for this match. They'd have to win by four goals to make the Europa League. A few of their key players are older -- such as Angel Di Maria and Nicolas Otamendi -- and likely could do with a rest.

Salzburg has dropped points in only two of eight home games in the Austrian Bundesliga this season. The level of competition will be greater on Tuesday -- unless Benfica sends out a completely weakened side.

Incentive is always important on the last match day in the Champions League, and this could be a glaring example of just that.

Player Props

Lautaro Martinez to Score (+135): Martinez leads Serie A with 14 goals this season. His Inter team will be locked in a battle with Real Sociedad for the top spot in Group D.

Inter are -165 moneyline favorites in this match and are facing the fifth-placed La Liga team at home. Across Europe's big five domestic leagues, Martinez's 14 league goals are behind the likes of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, and Erling Haaland, sitting as the fifth-most.

If any of those guys were in this spot, they'd likely be odds on to score. Martinez has been close to as good as them, so the +135 odds we're getting are great.

Giovanni De Lorenzo to Assist (+370): Napoli are the biggest favorites on this slate, and they need a result to ensure a spot in the knockout round.

Giovanni De Lorenzo is tied for fifth in Serie A with four assists -- the most on Napoli -- yet his odds to record an assist are only the ninth-best.

If you want a bit of a longshot player prop, this one has some legs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.