Champions League Betting Picks: Dortmund vs. PSG (5/1/24)

After Tuesday's match, we've got another semi final first leg to dig into on Wednesday. This one may not have the same name-brands involved, but it still should have some exciting action.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, what bets make the most sense for Tuesday's match?

Champions League Betting Picks Wednesday 5/1/24

Dortmund vs Paris St. Germain

Best Bet: PSG Tie No Bet (-124)

This isn't the first time these teams will meet this season. They were in the same group, and PSG won the first meeting 2-0 away from home. That will be the setting for this match, and we could see a similar result.

In that match, PSG dominated in all aspects. They had 67% of the possession, and had 16 shots to Dortmund's 14. The expected goals (xG) were lopsided in PSG's favor as well, with the visitors winning that battle 2.4 to 0.7, according to FBRef.com.

This tracks with the two teams' stats over the course of the season. PSG's xG differential per 90 minutes is 0.89 in Ligue 1 this season, while Dortmund's is 0.29 in the Bundesliga.

PSG's recent form has also been better than Dortmund's. The German side have lost three of their last six matches in all competitions. PSG have lost just once since November 7th -- and that was in their first leg against Barcelona in the last round.

Dortmund lost 4-1 to RB Leipzig in their last game, and that was in a critical match to qualify for the Champions League next season.

You could back PSG to win outright at +145, but I like the safety of backing a team that hasn't lost many games this season to just not lose at -124.

Player Prop

Kylian Mbappe to Have 2 or More Shots on Target (-130)

All eyes will be on Kylian Mbappe as he attempts to fire PSG into the Champions League final in his last season with the club.

Mbappe spent years perhaps playing a bit of second fiddle to Neymar, and then was also playing with Lionel Messi. Now, he's definitely the main man. He averages 4.3 shots per game in this competition this season -- the most he ever has. In league play, his 4.1 shots per game are the second most in Europe's big five leagues.

Dortmund are not a team that locks things down defensively. They rank 10th out of 18 Bundesliga in shots allowed per game.

It's likely Mbappe will try to take matters into his own hands, and hopefully, he can find the target at least twice to cash this bet. I wouldn't mind betting Three or More Shots on Target (+260), either, if you really want to lean into this angle.

Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.