Can the Colts Win 9 or More Games in 2024?

The Indianapolis Colts are embarking into a new era in 2024.

Of course, a fresh start was thought to be the case last season with the arrival of quarterback Anthony Richardson and Shane Steichen as head coach. Notably, a Week 5 shoulder injury sidelined the rookie signal-caller for the remainder of the year.

Taking the mulligan, Indy will return both motivated and healthy for the coming campaign. Additionally, the Colts made a splash at the recent NFL Draft by selecting edge rusher Laiatu Latu and receiver A.D. Mitchell.

Last season, Indianapolis narrowly missed the playoffs after producing a 9-8 overall record. Seemingly, many operators across the nation are expecting similar output going forward.

Let's dive into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals and discuss the reasons why the Colts could go over or under their projected win total in 2024.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Win Total Odds

Indianapolis Colts Over/Under 8.5 Wins

• Over: -104
• Under: -118

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +140
Odds to Win the AFC South: +330
Odds to Win the AFC: +2500
Super Bowl Odds: +5500 (tied 20th-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• N/a

Why Colts Could Win Over 8.5 Games

• Anthony Richardson will return healthy as a sophomore
• Shane Steichen should make improvements in Year 2
• An exciting incoming draft class

FanDuel lists Indy's 2024-25 win total at 8.5 games (-104/-118). Transparently, that is the same number as fellow AFC sides like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Colts' success in the immediate future is intrinsically tied to Anthony Richardson. As a rookie, Richardson showed positive flashes. He completed 50 of 84 pass attempts (59.5%) while tossing three scores and one interception. On the ground, he averaged 5.44 yards per carry, finding the end zone four times in as many games.

At the 2023 NFL Combine, Richardson ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds while posting 40.5 inches in the vertical leap. He is obviously an incredible athlete, and his legs make him one of the NFL's most dynamic threats. Still, he will need take hits cautiously as defenders are sure to bring the boom in this league.

The relationship between Richardson and Steichen -- a former college quarterback for the UNLV Rebels -- will be key going forward. However, Steichen has a few offensive weapons to harmonize in 2024. Tailback Jonathan Taylor and wideout Michael Pittman Jr. are already bonafide stars in this league. From there, the rookie Mitchell should add a new element to the group.

When considering last season's winning percentages, Indianapolis ranks 21st in terms of 2024 strength-of-schedule (.491); perhaps that is the last edge the Colts need to win over 8.5 games (-104 odds).

Why Colts Could Win Under 8.5 Games

• Richardson's dual-threat nature leads to another injury
• Indy continues to get gashed by the run
• Off-field issues

Even with Richardson going down early in 2023, Indy still managed respectable offensive figures (10th in scoring and 15th in yardage). However, the defense did not hold up their end of the deal.

In particular, the Colts were one of the worst groups at defending the run. A year ago, they allowed 123.8 rushing yards per game (or 4.1 yards per carry) to opponents. To make matters worse, Indianapolis surrendered 22 touchdowns on the ground -- most of any AFC team.

Drafting Latu from the UCLA Bruins certainly provides Indy with a gamewrecker up front, but will he be enough to turn this group around? Admittedly, DeForest Buckner and Samson Ebukam are also fine players along the defensive line. Still, this unit has work to do.

The AFC South might not be considered the NFL's top grouping by anyone's standards, but there will be improvement in 2024. Presently, numberFire actually has the Colts (-0.20 nERD) ranked third in their division behind the Houston Texans (2.80 nERD) as well as Jacksonville (-0.14 nERD). From there, the Tennessee Titans are in rebuilding mode under first-time head coach Brian Callahan.

Away from the Xs and Os, Indianapolis is one of those franchises wherein the owner is actively involved with on-field personnel. Sure, Chris Ballard is general manager of the Colts, but team owner Jim Irsay has a history -- both recent and distant -- of inserting himself between players and the coaching staff. Lest we forget, his latest spat with Taylor caused the All-Pro tailback to miss a handful of contests in 2023.

For any organization, it is crucial that ownership knows his/her/their strengths and weaknesses. Seemingly, Irsay getting personal with the players can be a delicate situation in any season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.