Can Michael Penix Jr. Elevate the Atlanta Falcons' Offense in 2025?

After three 7-10 seasons under Arthur Smith that were marked by inconsistent results and a revolving door at quarterback, the Atlanta Falcons made significant changes entering their 2024 campaign, bringing in a new coaching staff led by Raheem Morris and signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract. Between new leadership and a veteran quarterback to guide a promising young offensive core, there were high hopes that the Falcons would finally escape mediocrity and become a true playoff contender.

Well, as we all know, it didn't quite work out that way. Atlanta would finish 8-9 -- just a one-win improvement -- and miss the playoffs for the seventh straight year.

While Cousins would help get the Falcons to a 6-3 record to open the season, he would ultimately fall off a cliff after that (perhaps due to injury), infamously losing four straight games while throwing zero touchdowns to eight interceptions. Despite finally breaking that losing streak in Week 15, another unconvincing performance by Cousins would lead the team to bench him in favor of Michael Penix Jr..

Under Penix, Atlanta would go just 1-2 over their final three games, but the rookie showed enough promise to be called "the light at the end of the tunnel" by coach Morris at the season's conclusion.

It's clear that the Michael Penix Jr. era has begun in Atlanta.

With that in mind, will the Falcons take that next leap forward this season?

Key Issues the Falcons Need to Address

Prior to getting into Penix, it's worth taking a look at how Atlanta looks as a whole heading into 2025 and what they might need to do to optimize their chances.

Arguably the biggest outstanding issue is what to do with Cousins. While the Falcons have suggested they're "comfortable" with keeping Cousins as a backup, the more likely outcome is that he'll be released before a $10 million bonus kicks in. Trading Cousins is technically on the table, as well, but considering he has a no-trade clause and a hefty contract, that's less probable.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, regardless of how they handle the Cousins situation, they're short on cap space and draft capital to improve their roster this offseason. As of this writing, the Falcons are in the red (-$8.6 million) with the NFL's sixth-lowest cap space, per Spotrac, and they're expected to have only five picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Although this severely restricts the Falcons' ability to retool their roster, the good news is that at least on offense, they should be in good shape.

In 2024, Atlanta finished 15th in schedule-adjusted offense, and in terms of Adjusted NEP per play, they were closer to cracking the top 10 than not. Cousins and Penix were aided by a true No. 1 wide receiver (Drake London), a stud running back (Bijan Robinson), and an offensive line that finished 11th in PFF's final rankings.

If Penix can provide more consistent quarterback play than Cousins did over a full season, this could be one of the NFL's better offenses in 2025.

Best of all, the Falcons should be able to run it back with pretty much all their key offensive starters back, with the lone possible exception being center Drew Dalman, who enters the offseason as a free agent. PFF ranks Dalman as the 22nd overall free agent and easily the top available center. Bringing him back to keep this o-line intact could be the main priority on offense.

On the other hand, Atlanta's defense could use some reinforcements after finishing 19th in adjusted defense and most notably ranking just 28th versus the pass. Their pass rush was especially an issue, recording the second-worst pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and the second-fewest sacks (31).

Atlanta made a change at defensive coordinator, hiring former New York Jets DC and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich, which could be a step in the right direction. But they now need the players to bolster this lackluster pass rush and could potentially see turnover in the secondary, as well.

Despite being hamstrung by a lack of spending ability and draft capital, finding a way to improve the defense could be just as important as the play of their second-year quarterback.

Michael Penix Jr.'s Rookie Campaign

And speaking of that quarterback, let's see whether the Falcons are justified in putting their hopes in Penix.

Similar to how I compared the 2024 passing efficiency of Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett to get a better idea of Maye's potential on the New England Patriots next season, it makes sense to see how Penix stacked up with Cousins.

Although this isn't a clean sweep for Penix, who doesn't fare particularly well in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), he was noticeably superior to Cousins in expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) and sack rate.

For context, Penix's 0.11 EPA/db ranked ninth among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks, which coincidentally was identical to what both Super Bowl LIX quarterbacks posted in the regular season.

Additionally, PFF gave Penix an 87.6 pass grade, which ranked 4th in the same sample, whereas Cousins finished 23rd with a 72.3 grade. This included crediting Penix with 10 big-time throws -- his 9.0% big-time throw rate would've led the NFL over a full season -- while making only 2 turnover-worthy plays.

Penix made just three starts in 2024, so all of this has to be taken with a grain of salt, but these types of metrics make it clear why Atlanta thinks they've found their guy going forward. His initial inaccuracy issues are a concern, but if he can continue avoiding turnovers and sacks while taking advantage of a strong supporting cast, he could take this offense to the next level.

While it's fair to question last year's decision to sign Cousins to a massive contract only to spend the eighth overall pick in the draft on his future replacement, it at least looks like it might pay off in 2025.

Falcons' 2025 Outlook

Trusting Penix to elevate this offense requires somewhat of a leap of faith, but early returns are promising, and considering Atlanta's attack generally performed well last year in spite of Cousins' midseason slump, we don't necessarily need Penix to play at Pro Bowl level to be successful.

Meaningful improvements are necessary for the defense, though, if this team is going to finally break its playoff drought. That will be something to keep an eye on over the next few months.

The Falcons enter the offseason with +5500 odds to win the Super Bowl, placing them above the NFL's assumed basement dwellers but also well behind the top contenders.

Considering Atlanta's Super Bowl odds were as short as +2400 last offseason, expectations are much lower at present, which suggests that when win total odds come out, the Falcons' line should be lower than last year's mark (9.5). If the line is ultimately set in the 7.5-8.5 range -- meaning Penix and friends need only match or marginally improve on last year's record -- betting the over could be in play.

In the fantasy football realm, Penix won't be drafted as a starter in traditional formats but could have some sleeper potential as a QB2. Cousins was picked just inside the top 20 quarterbacks on most sites in 2024, per FantasyPros, so Penix could see a similar average draft position.

Penix didn't run a lot last year or in college, which could limit his fantasy upside, but he did scramble for a five-yard rushing TD in Week 18, so he might not be a total zero in that department. With even a little rushing juice paired with his strong supporting cast, perhaps we see more performances like that final start (29.0 FanDuel points).

Overall, the Falcons are in an intriguing spot, and there's definitely a path toward fulfilling last season's expectations, albeit a year later than expected. Penix might be the one to finally stick at quarterback for Atlanta, and if the defense can at least reach a league-average level, we could see a much-improved team in 2025.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.