Can Austin Ekeler Repeat as the RB1 in Fantasy Football in 2023?

The preseason is underway, and the regular season is not too far off in the distance. We should be gearing up for our fantasy football drafts.

Here's a look at Austin Ekeler, who finished as the best running back in half-PPR scoring last season. His outlook might not be as rosy heading into this season, but he is still projected to be one of the best backs in fantasy.

The Los Angeles Chargers went through some changes in the offseason that might affect Ekeler in a negative way for fantasy. How much will it hurt him, and will he still be worth selecting with a high pick in 2023?

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Football Projection

(All projections via numberFire.com)

Fantasy Points Projection: 284.1 (319.2 in 2022)
Positional Ranking: RB6
Projected Stats:

• 214.3 rush attempts
• 985.0 rushing yards
• 10.8 rushing touchdowns
• 75.2 receptions
• 97.8 targets
• 613.7 receiving yards
• 4.0 receiving touchdowns

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Football Outlook

Ascent to Elite Fantasy RB

Austin Ekeler was behind Melvin Gordon for a few years and appeared to be an interesting talent -- particularly from a pass-catching standpoint. He even finished as the RB6 in 2019 with Gordon playing most of the season.

His first season as the main man for the Chargers in 2020 when he finished with 15.1 half-PPR points per game, and if you remove the Week 4 game in which he played just three snaps, that was the 11th-highest per-game average for a running back.

Ekeler really was able to step into the conversation of one of the best fantasy backs starting in 2021. He had 70 receptions, second-most among RBs in the league. His percentage of team red-zone touches went from 16.4 in 2020 to 30.5 in 2021, and that led to 12 rushing touchdowns. He had just nine career rushing touchdowns before this season.

He took the pass-catching up even another level in 2022 by catching a whopping 107 balls -- tied for the second-most in a season by a running back. Scoring 18 total touchdowns allowed for a truly great season.

So heading into this season, we shouldn't have much to be concerned about, right?

Chargers' Changes Could Lead to Decrease in Fantasy Production

The 2022 season was great for those fantasy players who had Ekeler in their lineups. However, it certainly wasn't the best for the Chargers' offense.

LA was 16th in numberFire's metrics in offensive efficiency. Justin Herbert had a minuscule average depth of throw (6.4 yards) that ranked 31st in the league. Ekeler benefited from this, but the offense really could have used more deep passes.

Ekeler caught a lot of those short passes when Keenan Allen was out injured. Allen and Ekeler tend to operate in the same areas of the field, and we saw it hurt Ekeler's target share.

Allen essentially played his first full game of the season in Week 11. Ekeler's target share before Week 11 was 20.9%. When Allen returned, Ekeler's target share plummeted to 14.6%.

A lot of the blame for the Chargers offense was shouldered by offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. He served as the OC for the previous two seasons before they decided to replace him with Kellen Moore.

Moore previously served as the OC for the Dallas Cowboys. He did a great job of using new offensive concepts on a team that tends to be more old school. Combined with analytically-minded head coach Brandon Staley, he should be able to install a better scheme than what we saw the last two seasons.

This improvement on offense should help Herbert and the wide receivers in fantasy, but it may hurt Ekeler’s chances of seeing as many targets.

Another concern for Ekeler heading into year is the dreaded regression monster. His 18 touchdowns were 7.8 more than expected based on a few factors like rushing attempts and success rate.

Ekeler will still get a lot of receiving work, and the Chargers haven't been able to find an effective back to share some of the touches. So while he isn't likely to fall off too hard, but a repeat as the RB1 is unlikely.

Where Should We Select Ekeler in Drafts?

Ekeler is currently being selected as the RB2, the 4th player overall according to Fantasy Pros.

It makes sense; he had an incredible season. We want to bet on guys with the receiving profile the Ekeler has, which has been the case against someone like Derrick Henry going this high in seasons' past.

However, if we are using the fourth or fifth pick in a draft on someone, their profile has to be close to perfect. The case has been laid out as to why Ekeler does not have the perfect profile this year and could fall off from his fantastic 2022 season.

It would be hard for me to take Ekeler if I had the fourth or fifth pick in a draft. If I wind up with one of these picks, I'm likely to take one of the top wide receivers, Christian McCaffrey, or Travis Kelce.

The projections at numberFire have Tony Pollard with more points than Ekeler this season, and his ADP is 17.0. Pollard in round two feels like a better pick than Ekeler in the first.

If Ekeler falls a bit later into round one, he's an acceptable selection. It just doesn't seem like he's worth going out of our way to pick this season.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.