Bundesliga Title Odds: Will Bayern Win Their 12th Title in a Row?

The Bundesliga in Germany is often derided for being a one-team league. It's a fair criticism -- as Bayern Munich have won the title 11 times in a row.

Last season was the closest they came to losing that title race, as it came down to the final day of the season. They needed Borussia Dortmund to drop points in their match while winning away against Cologne. Both of those things happened.

Bayern made some signings in the summer, such as bringing in Harry Kane, and on paper, they're pretty loaded for this season. That said, they are still not leading the Bundesliga. How can we assess their chances of winning a 12th title in a row?

Here are the Bundesliga title odds, according to the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Bundesliga Title Odds

Bayern Munich (-135)

With Bayern currently sitting four points out of first, the mystique of this current Bayern Munich era still has them as favorites to win the title. They still have close to half the season remaining, but it's pretty hard to imagine any other team being favorites when needing to gain this much ground.

Bayern's first full season under Thomas Tuchel has basically resulted in them being as dominant as we'd expect. They've scored 53 goals, the most in the league. Kane has made a huge impact, leading the league with a remarkable 22 goals.

The underlying data is excellent for Bayern. They have an expected goal (xG) differential of 37.4, according to FBRef. That's more than 17 xG better than any other team in the league.

Kane isn't the only signing making a difference. They also signed Kim Min-jae from Napoli to play center-back, and that's worked out well. Bayern have conceded just 12.4 xG in the league this season -- more than five xG fewer than all other clubs.

The team was without Manuel Neuer at keeper until October 28th. He may not be at his best at age 37, but he does make a difference. He has kept a clean sheet in 60% of his matches while backup Sven Ulreich kept opponents scoreless just 37% of the time.

There are a few transfer rumors out there for Bayern in the January transfer window. They look to be out on bringing in Kieran Trippier from Newcastle, but they still could add Nordi Mukiele in an effort to strengthen at right-back. They definitely have the financial muscle to flex if they decide they need to go that route.

It's hard to bet against Bayern lifting the Bundesliga title again, even if they are facing perhaps their toughest challenger yet.

Bayer Leverkusen (-120)

The current leaders of the league are Bayer Leverkusen. They are seeking their first ever Bundesliga title, and the fact that they don't have one has earned them the derogatory nickname of "Neverkusen."

A year has made a huge difference for Leverkusen. They made a managerial change in October 2022, bringing Xabi Alonso in to replace Gerardo Seoane. They had just five points from their first eight games at the time.

In their next 26 games, they recorded 45 points. They finished with the fourth-best xG differential in the league a year ago.

This campaign, in their first full season under Xabi Alonso, they've improved on that good form. They are unbeaten through 18 league matches, winning 15 of them. They are averaging 2.67 points per match, compared to their 1.73 last season.

The xG differential for the season is 20.1, the third-best in the Bundesliga. This is the one aspect of their stats where they look much worse than Bayern, even if this is still a strong differential.

Leverkusen made two shrewd signings in the summer. Victor Boniface has 10 goals and seven assists in his first season in Germany, the fourth-most goal contributions in the league. Not too far behind him is Alejandro Grimaldo, who has added 15 goal contributions from his left-back position.

They also have had the benefit of Florian Wirtz being healthy from the beginning of the season. The young starlet was coming off an ACL tear in 2022 that limited him to just 17 appearances and one goal in the Bundesliga last season. This season, he has five goals and seven assists already.

If Leverkusen is ever going to win the Bundesliga, this is a great opportunity for them to do it. They drew with Bayern away from home, 2-2, on September 15th. The rematch will be at home at BayerArena, where they've won eight of nine games.

Summary

Bayern Munich look like the stronger team on paper, but the organization of Leverkusen's squad under Alonso gives them a chance. The match on February 10th will likely go a long way toward deciding where the title ends up.

Right now, history favors Bayern, as they've chased down league leaders in the past. Leverkusen have a chance, but it is slightly more likely that the title goes to Bayern once again.

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