The Denver Broncos come into Monday Night Football on a two-game win streak and have a good chance of extending that as 6.5-point home favorites over the Cleveland Browns.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Browns at Broncos NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Bo Nix ($16,500) is inside the top 10 among QBs in FanDuel points per game (18.6) this season, and he leads the slate in our NFL DFS projections at about that mark. He's likely to be the chalk MVP option.

Dating back to Week 5, Nix has scored at least 18 points in six of his last eight starts, which includes a pair of performances where he cracked 29 points. While his rushing output has dwindled and he hasn't exceeded five rush yards in three straight games, he's made up for it through the air by averaging a robust 0.28 expected points added per drop back, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

We should like his chances of putting up strong numbers versus Cleveland's 21st-ranked adjusted pass defense, although the Browns have the league's highest pressure rate (40.4%), so this isn't necessarily a complete cakewalk for the rookie quarterback.

Nix's top target, Courtland Sutton ($15,000), also projects well against a defense that's given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts. He's a great MVP option at what should be a much lower MVP roster percentage compared to Nix.

Over the last five games, Sutton leads the team in target share (28.6%), air yards share (45.0%), red zone target share (31.0%), and yards per route run (2.78) -- and no one else comes particularly close in those categories. Sutton has logged at least 100 yards and/or scored a touchdown in four of those five weeks.

The highest-projected Browns players are Jameis Winston ($15,000), Nick Chubb ($13,000), and Jerry Jeudy ($11,000).

Winston is up against a Denver defense that's second in adjusted pass D and has allowed the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to QBs. While that clearly puts a damper on his outlook, outside of last week's snow game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jameis has racked up 41, 46, and 46 pass attempts, scoring 26.6, 13.1, and 29.6 points over that span. We should expect another high-volume passing night in a matchup Cleveland is expected to trail in, which leaves the door open for gaudy fantasy numbers.

On the other hand, Chubb's a tougher sell at MVP despite coming off a two-touchdown game with a season-high 18.5 FanDuel points. He's averaging just 3.0 yards per attempt, and even with 20 carries in that Pittsburgh win, he reached only 59 rushing yards. We've seen Chubb's snaps plummet in negative game scripts, and the Broncos are also stout versus the run (fourth in adjusted rush D). He's logged a 90.0% red zone rush share, so while another multi-touchdown performance is technically possible, a ton would have to go right for it to happen.

Finally, Jeudy hasn't dominated targets with Winston under center, but he gets a bump with Cedric Tillman ruled out. Across the last four games, Jeudy has led the team in route rate (93.3%) while also carrying a slight edge in target share (22.6%) and air yards share (29.6%). He's averaged 6.0 downfield targets (10+ air yards) per game in that sample, helping him to double-digit FanDuel points in all four outings.

Jeudy is actually projected for the slate's most targets (8.3) -- just ahead of Sutton (8.2). The Broncos have clamped down on WRs, though, giving up the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to the position.

Flex Targets

David Njoku ($12,000) -- Njoku owns a 17.6% target share with Winston under center and could benefit from Tillman being sidelined. With just a 4.4-yard aDOT, he'll need to rack up the receptions to generate yardage, but he's projected for the night's third-most targets (7.5).

Javonte Williams ($11,500) -- After seemingly losing lead-back duties in Week 10, Williams has since averaged 8.5 carries and 4.5 targets with a 54.4% snap rate over the last two games. It isn't an amazing role, and we can never be too sure of what Sean Payton will do next, but Javonte is the most trustworthy option in Denver's backfield -- for whatever that's worth.

Elijah Moore ($10,000) -- With Winston, Moore's market shares aren't all that different from Jeudy's, sporting a 21.4% target share and 28.0% air yards share, and he's averaged 4.0 downfield targets per game, too. He could be productive tonight.

Denver Bronco D/ST ($9,500) -- We shouldn't rule out the Broncos' defense as a contrarian MVP in case the bad Jameis shows up. Denver is third in pressure rate (39.6%), helping them to the NFL's most sacks (44). Winston threw three interceptions against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9.

Wil Lutz ($9,500) -- Lutz could be busy kicking for the heavy favorite, and he did pop for 22 FanDuel points last week after nailing 5-of-5 field goals. Cleveland's Dustin Hopkins is tougher to trust, not only as the underdog but because he has a poor 71.4% FG percentage in 2024.

Devaughn Vele ($9,000) -- Over the last three games, Vele has emerged with an 18.4% target share and 27.1% air yards share as the No. 2 option in the Broncos' passing attack. Scoring double-digit FanDuel points twice in that sample, he's an appealing value play.

Jerome Ford ($8,000) -- In three games with Chubb, Ford has averaged 3.7 carries and 2.7 targets per game, and his usage improves in negative game scripts. Still, he reached a 57.1% snap rate in Week 11 yet accumulated just 39 scrimmage yards. He probably needs to luck into a TD to pay off, which is less likely due to Chubb's dominant goal-line role.

Audric Estime ($8,000) and Jaleel McLaughlin ($7,000) -- McLaughlin is projected for more opportunities than Estime, but rostering either one is mostly a dice roll with Javonte Williams presumably leading the backfield.

Marvin Mims ($7,500) -- If you're rostering a Broncos player in this salary range, Mims might be the better option over the other fringe RBs and WRs. Mims has carved out a hybrid role over the past three weeks, averaging 2.7 carries and 3.7 targets, and he scored a touchdown in Week 11. While the opportunities and snaps are still limited, the fact he's getting designed plays theoretically gives him a better shot at finding the end zone.

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