Broncos at Chargers Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football

Week 16 opens with an AFC West battle between two playoff contenders. The Los Angeles Chargers are 2.5-point favorites over the visiting Denver Broncos in what could be a lower-scoring matchup.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Broncos at Chargers NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Bo Nix ($15,500) will probably be pretty chalky at MVP, but particularly in a game with a low total, he's arguably our safest choice.

While Nix largely struggled as a passer in Week 15, windy conditions played a role in that, and he still didn't completely flop with 16.5 FanDuel points. He also had 8 rushes for 23 yards, a promising sign for his dual-threat upside after running for 5 or fewer yards in four straight games. He has the slate's top score in our NFL DFS projections, and despite facing a defense that's typically been tough versus the pass, Baker Mayfield lit up the Chargers for 29.02 FanDuel points last week, and the Bolts are dealing with injuries to multiple key players on defense.

If you want to sidestep the popular MVP play, Courtland Sutton ($14,000) is easy to get on board with as Nix's No. 1 wide receiver.

From Week 8 onward, Sutton has dominated Denver market shares with a 28.6% target share, 47.6% air yards share, and 27.8% red zone target share. He's popped for over 20 FanDuel points twice over that seven-game span. When Mayfield carved up the Chargers last week, he helped his top wideout, Mike Evans, reach 35.4 FanDuel points. Sutton projects for the game's most targets (8.6).

If we're looking for an MVP from Los Angeles, Justin Herbert ($15,000) and Ladd McConkey ($13,500) are our best choices.

As a quarterback, Herbert is pretty much in the MVP conversation by default, but he's been playing through an ankle injury and didn't rush even once last week, so we might not be able to count on him contributing anything on the ground. Add in facing a Broncos team that ranks first in schedule-adjusted pass defense and has allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel points to QBs, and it's tough to get super excited about his ceiling tonight. With all that being said, his projection is a close second to Nix's, and the lines for their passing yardage props are similar.

Since Quentin Johnston rejoined the lineup in Week 9, McConkey has logged a 25.4% target share and 29.2% air yards share in the six games he's been active. While his 7.1% red zone target share in that sample is less exciting, he's lined up in the slot 74.1% of the time (per NFL Next Gen Stats), so he likely won't have to go against Denver's stud CB Patrick Surtain II too often tonight. McConkey has this matchup's highest receiving yardage prop line (64.5) just ahead of Sutton (62.5).

Flex Targets

Gus Edwards ($12,500) -- Our model projects Edwards for double-digit FanDuel points, but he's realistically a touchdown-or-bust option after averaging just 30.7 scrimmage yards over the past three games as the Chargers "lead" back. Even more worrisome is that he's seen fewer snaps than Kimani Vidal the past two games in negative game scripts, dropping to just a 27.1% snap rate in Week 15. The Broncos are second in adjusted rush defense, further pushing us away from Edwards -- particularly at this salary.

Quentin Johnston ($11,500) -- Since coming back in Week 9, Johnston has a 20.1% target share, 28.2% air yards share, and 35.7% red zone target share in six games with McConkey active. He's had volatile results, but his usage near the goal line makes him a solid flex.

Javonte Williams ($11,000) and Audric Estime ($8,000) -- With Jaleel McLaughlin ruled out, Williams and Estime will split reps out of the Denver backfield. In Week 15, Williams played far more snaps than Estime (54.1% to 19.7%), but their opportunities weren't that far apart (9 to 6). The Chargers have given up the fifth-fewest FanDuel points to running backs and this backfield has been a headache all year, so expectations should be held in check. Estime does have an appealing salary if you're willing to roll the dice, though.

Josh Palmer ($10,000) -- Palmer has a 13.0% target share across the last six games with McConkey and Johnston both healthy. He's projects for the slate's fourth-most targets (4.9).

Devaughn Vele ($9,500), Marvin Mims ($7,500), Troy Franklin ($7,000), and Lil'Jordan Humphrey ($6,000) -- Behind Sutton, none of Denver's wideouts are reliable with all four of these players projected for around 3-4 targets apiece. Vele is the only one who consistently runs over half the routes (62.2% in Week 15) while Mims sees some designed runs out of the backfield, making them the ones to prioritize.

Cameron Dicker ($8,500) and Wil Lutz ($8,500) -- It's telling that both kickers are inside the top seven in our projections, showing this matchup's tempered fantasy expectations. Dicker and Lutz have been two of the NFL's best kickers both in fantasy and in real life, and they're firmly in the mix as salary-saving plays.

Stone Smartt ($7,500) -- Smartt will see increased reps at tight end again with Will Dissly sidelined. In Week 15, he recorded a 59.5% route rate and logged the Chargers' third-highest target share (18.8%), so he shouldn't be overlooked as a value option.

Kimani Vidal ($7,000) -- While Vidal hasn't made much of a mark in the box score, he's intriguing in case last week's 66.7% snap rate was more than just related to game script. Between Vidal already being the pass-catching back and Edwards being inefficient as a rusher, Vidal could see an increased role down the stretch. His rushing plus receiving yardage prop line is set at 43.5, which could be telling for a player who's averaged only 25.3 scrimmage yards over the last three outings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.