Broncos at Bills Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Weekend

On Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, the Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs.

The postseason is a fun time to play single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Broncos at Bills NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Allen ($17,500) is the obvious top choice at MVP. One of fantasy's truly elite dual-threat quarterbacks, Allen averaged 24.6 FanDuel points per game in the regular season, and our NFL DFS projections have him scoring a slate-leading 22.8 FanDuel points.

With that said, Allen will likely be the most popular MVP play by a wide margin, and I think you can make a decent case to use Bo Nix ($15,000) at MVP and slide Allen into a flex spot.

Allen's matchup is a brutal one as Denver's defense ranks second overall, including second against the pass, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Obviously, Allen can cook in any matchup, but this is a difficult spot for him.

As for Nix, he has the upside to out-score Allen. Not only does he get a softer matchup -- albeit on the road -- against a Buffalo pass D that checks in 21st, Nix also brings rushing juice to the table, averaging 25.3 rushing yards per game. He posted an average of 29.7 rushing yards per game in losses and could turn drop backs into scrambles if he's forced to play from behind as a road 'dog.

All in all, Allen likely leads the slate in scoring, but I'm down with Nix as a pivot play at MVP.

It's difficult to make a valid MVP case for any of the non-QBs, but if forced to pick someone, I'd roll with Courtland Sutton ($13,000).

The last two weeks, Sutton posted 18.3 and 14.0 FanDuel points. Prior to last week's blowout, Sutton had played at least 90% of the snaps in four consecutive games. If the Broncos see a negative game script, he could be very busy. Sutton owns the highest receiving yards prop for this game (64.5) and carries the shortest touchdown odds on Denver (+160).

Flex Targets

Both teams split touches in the backfield, and Buffalo shares the load at receiver, which makes this slate pretty wide open outside of the three players we talked about in the MVP section.

On the Buffalo side, James Cook ($14,000) projects as the best non-Allen play as we have him scoring 13.1 FanDuel points, tops among the slate's non-QBs. However, Denver sits third in run defense, and Cook hasn't topped a 50% snap rate since Week 11. His -125 TD odds are appealing, but given his salary, Cook likely has to score a touchdown to end up in the perfect lineup.

Khalil Shakir ($11,500), Amari Cooper ($10,500), Keon Coleman ($8,500) and Dalton Kincaid ($9,500) are all viable, but it's hard to feel great about any of them. Our projections have Shakir pegged for 9.7 FanDuel points, the most of this group, and his receiving yards prop of 52.5 is the highest among this group by a wide margin. Kincaid is next at 33.5.

Running back Ty Johnson ($7,000) is worth a look. We need to save salary somewhere if we want to jam in both QBs, and Johnson led Buffalo's backfield in snaps in a game just three weeks ago. He's a good pass-catcher and has flashed big-play ability.

For Denver, Javonte Williams ($7,500), Jaleel McLaughlin ($10,000) and Audric Estime ($8,000) have all been involved at RB lately. Going by rushing yards props, McLaughlin (33.5) paces the group. But that's a very meh number, and factoring in salary, Williams is the Denver back I want. He's hauled in multiple passes in four straight, including a seven-catch game in a loss three weeks ago. If Denver gets into a hole, that will likely help Williams' DFS outlook.

Marvin Mims ($11,000) has emerged down the stretch. He's on a heater, producing 19.6 and 29.2 FanDuel points the past two weeks. While Mims' big-play chops are enticing in single-game DFS, I'll likely be light on him as Mims' hot two-game run may inflate his draft percentage. Plus, he hasn't bested a 47% snap rate in any game this season, so he needs those hard-to-rely-on big plays to post a good output.

Devaughn Vele ($8,000) has some appeal as a low-salary dart. He's played between 47% and 68% of the snaps in each of the Broncos' last eight games, and he sports the third-highest receiving yards prop (26.5) on the team.

If you think this ends up being a low-scoring game, the kickers -- Wil Lutz ($9,000) and Tyler Bass ($9,000) -- make some sense. Weather isn't expected to be an issue Sunday in Buffalo. Our model has Bass projected for 9.3 FanDuel points and Lutz at 7.6.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.