BMW Championship Win Simulations: Who Stands Out After the Top Tier?

Only two weeks remain in the PGA Tour season, and this week's BMW Championship is the moving day equivalent of the FedExCup Playoffs.

After all, seeding matters for starting strokes next week, and it's the final chance to secure some of those before next week's 30-golfer TOUR Championship.

That means we'll need to account for starting strokes for (say it with me) next week's event -- but not yet.

Who, then, is in the best position to finish well -- and win -- this week at the BMW Championship?

To help with that, here is what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's PGA Tour event.

BMW Championship Win Simulations

We've seen Scottie Scheffler's win odds lengthen from +650 to +700 while Rory McIlroy's odds went from +650 to +600, so it's clear where the interest is early in the week. My simulation model, though (as usual), likes Scheffler's odds more, making him interesting at +700 odds.

Value is pretty tight at the top otherwise, though Tyrrell Hatton and Collin Morikawa at +2500 have 3.0%-plus win odds.

After a bad showing last week, Wyndham Clark (+4500) has some pretty long odds, and my model likes him quite a bit relative to that number. Fellow U.S. Open final pairing member Rickie Fowler (+3500) also had a weak showing at the FedEx St. Jude Championship but is listed at a very reasonable number.

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.