Best Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIX

For Super Bowl LIX, you can find props on pretty much any player your heart desires.

The question is which props are best for that player after considering the matchup, game environment, and their role.

Today, we're going to try to solve for that with Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIX as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

We can utilize things such as FanDuel Research's NFL player projections to try to find value and identify the best way to bet on -- or against -- Mahomes within FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl LIX player prop odds.

So, if we're looking for value in Mahomes props this week, where should we turn? Let's check it out.

Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bets for the 2025 Super Bowl

Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (-102)

Mahomes is due for a pick, and I'm intrigued by these -102 odds.

Through the first 10 games of the 2024 season, Mahomes tossed 11 interceptions, including at least one pick in 8 of 10 outings. His interception rate in that span was 3.2% -- well above his career clip of 1.8%. He was going to stop throwing picks eventually, and he has done just that -- going without an interception in eight straight games. But I think it's now swung too far the other way.

During his eight-game streak with no interceptions, Mahomes has recorded seven turnover-worthy plays, per PFF, including one apiece in each of the Chiefs' playoff games. He's been lucky not to have an interception in that span.

The Eagles ended the regular season with the No. 1 schedule-adjusted pass defense, per our numbers. They're a super tough matchup for any QB, and they just brought the Jayden Daniels runaway train to a halt last time out (which included Daniels throwing a pick).

Our NFL player projections have Mahomes throwing 0.55 interceptions on Sunday. I'll roll the dice at these -102 odds.

Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 First-Quarter Rushing Yards (-106)

Throughout his career, Mahomes has upped his rushing production in the playoffs, and he can run for five-plus yards in the first quarter on Sunday.

Mahomes is averaging 20.0 rushing yards per game in the regular season in his career. In the playoffs, that jumps to 29.1. He's run for 14 and 43 yards through two postseason games this season.

In the first quarter in this year's playoffs, Mahomes has run for zero yards against the Houston Texans and 16 yards (on two attempts) versus the Buffalo Bills. In the game against Houston, Mahomes had a 15-yard scramble on the first play of the second quarter.

There's not a lot of wiggle room with this bet, and depending on how the quarter plays out, there's a chance the Chiefs don't run that many first-quarter plays. But with our model projecting Mahomes for 30.3 rushing yards for the game, I like his chances to run for at least five yards in the opening quarter.

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Which props stand out to you in Super Bowl LIX? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Super Bowl LIX player prop odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.