Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets for the Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega

Every time the NASCAR Xfinity Series goes to a pack track, Austin Hill is going to be the man to beat.

In 20 races at Daytona, Atlanta, or Talladega as a full-time driver, Hill has eight wins, a whopping 40% rate. At a track type with so much volatility, it's borderline unfathomable.

Although none of those wins have come in Talladega, Hill is still the runaway favorite in my betting model. I'm not quite in line with the betting markets -- he's +310 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds -- but I'm close enough where I feel the model is giving Hill his due respect.

With that said, one of his key competitors is a value for me, and it's in a guy who has proven he can win here.

Let's start things off by laying out my model's full simulations. Then, we'll discuss my favorite bets of the week.

As a note, only the top 38 drivers in my sims were projected, so Garrett Smithley, Greg Van Alst, and Katherine Legge were omitted.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for Talladega

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks for Talladega

• Aric Almirola (+1200): Almirola won at Talladega in the Cup Series back in 2018 and was generally a skilled pack racer. He has done just two pack races since jumping down to the Xfinity Series, but one of them was a third-place finish in Atlanta. I think he has the skill to give Hill a fight if he's around at the end.
• Sam Mayer (+2100): Mayer finished runner-up to Hill's teammate, Jesse Love, in Daytona this year and had a ninth-place average running position in Atlanta. He was also runner-up at Talladega as a rookie in 2022, so he has the upside to compete in the races where he doesn't end up on a wrecker.
• Harrison Burton (+3500): Burton won a Cup Series race in Daytona last year and has finished top-10 in both Xfinity pack races this year. He has also been top 10 in all five career Xfinity races at Daytona, including a pair of podiums. The equipment isn't great, but he showed earlier this year that it's good enough when things are leveled off as they are in the draft.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.