Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets and Predictions for the Focused Health 250 at COTA

We've got a three-headed monster leading the field to this week's NASCAR Xfinity Series race at the Circuit of the Americas.

Even with Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger graduated to the Cup Series, Connor Zilisch has come to take their place. He won at Watkins Glen last year -- his Xfinity Series debut -- as an 18-year-old after he had already won earlier that year at the 24 Hours of Daytona. He's a road-racing demon who could dominate this track type in 2025.

But he'll be joined in the field by Cup regulars William Byron and Ross Chastain, both of whom have won at COTA in Cup. Chastain is also in significantly better equipment than he has run recently in Xfinity as he'll drive for JR Motorsports.

It's honestly tough to get a proper number on Zilisch, given his lack of sample in NASCAR's upper three series. Thus, I think there's a good chance my model is undervaluing him entering this race, so we should proceed with caution when betting outrights elsewhere.

With that said, the top three still control 64.2% of the win equity in my sims prior to practice and qualifying. Here are the initial sims, and then we'll run through which value I like most in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

(UPDATE: The sims below have been updated post-qualifying. Disclaimer that I am way below market on Zilisch, and it's likely the model is undervaluing him. So if you're betting outrights on other drivers, I'd want them to be pretty massive values in order to actually bet it.)

NASCAR Xfinity Series at COTA Predictions

Betting Picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series at COTA

• Austin Hill (+1700): Should something happen to the top three drivers, Hill is the driver most likely to take advantage, by my numbers. He was runner-up at COTA both last year and in 2022, one of 10 top-5s he has in 20 Xfinity Series road course races as a full-time driver. A lot of those came while facing Van Gisbergen, Allmendinger, and others, so I do think the general optimism is warranted. Whether he can actually top The Big Three is another question.
  • (UPDATE: Hill has since lengthened to +2500. I mentioned above that I'd want quite a bit of value to bite due to the model's likely undervaluing of Zilisch. I think the edge is big enough here to justify it -- 6.9% for me versus 3.4% implied.)
• Jesse Love (+4200): Love has proven he can beat Zilisch heads-up at a road course. He did this at Watkins Glen in the ARCA Menards Series thanks to a sick last-lap pass in the rain back in 2023. Love was decent on road courses as a rookie, finishing sixth at COTA, fifth in Chicago, and eighth in Watkins Glen. I think his skills are underrated, and -- as Hill's teammate -- we know he has the equipment to get it done.
  • (UPDATE: Love has since lengthened to +5000. This is also a big enough edge for me to still like it. Love had the second best single-lap speed in practice, so even though he's starting 11th, he's got pace.)

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.