Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets and Predictions for Homestead

As laid out in our NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series predictions for Homestead, it's Kyle Larson's weekend to spoil all the fun.

That's more true in the Xfinity Series than it was for the Trucks.

Not only is this a longer race -- giving Larson more time to make up for any mistakes -- but he's also more experienced in Xfinity and racing against more youth. The top teams in JR Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are fielding youngsters this year, limiting the number of drivers who can realistically push Larson for a win.

Thus, we have a situation where:

• Larson's sucking up more than half the win equity in my model
• It's still not enough for us to bet him

It leads to minimal betting value as I'm above market on only three drivers in the entire field in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds. One of them is 0.1 percentage points above market.

It's not the worst idea to hold out here and hope value opens up after practice and qualifying. But for now, here's where my model has things, and we'll run through the two values at the bottom.

(UPDATE: The sims below have been updated after practice and qualifying.)

NASCAR Xfinity Series in Homestead Predictions

Betting Picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series in Homestead

• Justin Allgaier (+1000): Homestead is arguably Allgaier's worst track as he has led just 15 laps here in 16 career races, mostly in elite equipment. He is the one true, grizzled vet in the field in an elite car, though, and purely out of respect, the model has him at 9.4% to win, barely up from 9.1% implied.
  • UPDATE: Allgaier's standing has improved in the sims thanks to impressive long-run speed in practice and a fourth-place starting spot. If he were to re-open at +1000, I'd be more comfortable with him than I was before. With that said, Larson was dropping some sicko stuff in practice and now looks -- somehow -- even better than he did before cars hit the track.
• William Sawalich (+8000): Sawalich is part of that youth movement as he's running full-time for Joe Gibbs Racing. He has had a tough go of it so far on bigger tracks, which is why he's +8000. But he was dominant last year in the ARCA Menards Series and does have plenty of horsepower with JGR, propelling him to 1.9% win odds in the sims.
  • UPDATE: Sawalich is down to 0.9% to win after qualifying, so I'd pass if he re-opens near this number.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.