Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the South Point 400 in Las Vegas

It feels appropriate that as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas, it's the longshots who are popping up as betting values for me.

That's despite the fact my model views there as being one clear favorite for the race. It has Kyle Larson at 18.3% to win, technically making him a value at +470 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. You could bet him if you wanted for sure.

But after Larson, things flatten out, and the model makes it look like some drivers lower in the pecking order could make noise.

Let's start things off by running through the full pre-practice simulations, and then we can discuss which of the dark horses the model is buying into and why.

NASCAR Predictions for Las Vegas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Las Vegas

Bubba Wallace to Win (+2200)

Bubba Wallace's playoffs came to an end last week as he was eliminated in the Round of 12 cutoff at the ROVAL. That race almost didn't matter, though, and it's part of why the model likes him for Vegas.

The week before in Kansas, Wallace was leading with a half lap to go. But his team owner, Denny Hamlin, got tight while trying to pass Wallace, shoving both into the wall and allowing Chase Elliott to sneak through for the win. Had Wallace won, he'd have advanced to the Round of 8 and still be pushing for a championship this week.

Wallace has shown upside at the speed-centric tracks all year. In addition to the near-win there, he did win in Indianapolis and was top-five in both Michigan and Homestead. That kind of speed probably shouldn't be +2200 even if Wallace is no longer in the playoffs.

Even with Larson hogging plenty of win equity, I've got Wallace at 7.2% to win, up from 4.4% implied.

Chris Buescher to Finish Top 5 (+500)

The case for Chris Buescher is similar to Wallace: he has been in the mix at high-speed tracks, and we're getting him at a number that doesn't reflect it.

Two of Buescher's better runs came at high-speed tracks this year: he was runner-up in Michigan and fourth in Pocono with a top-nine average running position in both. Even though they're different tracks from Vegas, both require elite giddy-up and don't feature a ton of tire wear. That matters for me this weekend.

Buescher also had good pace in Kansas two weeks ago. He scored points in the opening stage despite qualifying 15th and had a 10th-place average running position. It seems like RFK Racing is still pushing despite having no cars in the playoffs, so I'm comfortable with the model having him at 22.3% to finish top 5.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+480)

The Cup Series has run nine races at either a 1.5-mile track or a big, fast track this year. AJ Allmendinger has finished top 10 in three of those, making the +480 here pretty tempting.

Those three races all came early in the year as he was top-10 in Vegas, Homestead, and Charlotte. There haven't been a ton of chances since then, though, with a bunch of road courses and short, flat tracks on the schedule.

Additionally, a lot of the non-top-10s for Allmendinger have been due to incidents. Two weeks ago in Kansas, he got caught up in a big crash but had spent more than half of his laps in the top 15 until that time. He's got better speed than the market is saying, so even while I think the model is a bit too high on him, I'm very willing to fire at +480.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+700)

I've got value on both Zane Smith and his teammate, Noah Gragson (+1100), to finish top 10. Because both are in Group A for qualifying (which will likely produce slower qualifying speeds), I want to pick just one or the other. I prefer Smith due to his recent pace, but Gragson's an option if you feel better about the longer number.

Smith's speed has been good at the faster tracks this year. He has had a top-20 average running position in four straight at non-drafting tracks 1.5 miles or longer, and he has hit that mark in six of nine total races this year. The most recent exception is Charlotte, where he had an incident. Before that, he had a 12th-place average running position in Kansas, so this pace has been here all year.

Smith just doesn't have the finishes to show for it. He is constantly getting scooped up in late-race incidents, including one that left him flipping in Kansas. Maybe that's on him at some point, but a lot of it seems like bad luck. If he can keep his nose clean, a top-10 is fully within grasp.

I've got Smith at 18.3% to finish top 10, up from 12.5% implied. Gragson's marks are 15.0% and 8.3%, respectively, so the edge is better there. I just like the eye test on Smith more than Gragson, pushing me that way before practice.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.