Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Mobile 1 301 in New Hampshire

A key to having a betting model is knowing when your model is wrong.

Mine is this week. It's too low on Christopher Bell.

Bell has run New Hampshire 11 times across NASCAR's top three series. He has won seven of those races, including two of five in the Cup Series.

Sicko stuff.

However, because the Cup Series comes here just once per year, my model downplays track history in favor of recent form. Bell's still the favorite, but he's well below his implied odds at +300 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Thus, if I want to bet outrights, I have to make sure there's enough value to account for the extra win equity that should be going Bell's direction.

I do think there is at least one outright worth snagging, even after accounting for Bell's dominance. Let's lay out the model's pre-practice simulations, and then we can discuss bets I want to make before entering the weekend.

NOTE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for Loudon

NASCAR Betting Picks for Loudon

Bubba Wallace to Win (+2200)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since shortened to +1900. That's right around where I have him after qualifying -- 4.9% -- so Wallace is no longer a value for me.)

When you combine Bubba Wallace's form with his history at New Hampshire, +2200 looks like a mighty tasty number.

One of Wallace's first big showings with 23XI Racing came at this track in 2022. He ran up front all day, had a sixth-place average running position, and finished third. He was eighth the year after but struggled in the rain last year.

He has had great speed on flat tracks this year. Wallace finished top-five in Martinsville, was sixth in Nashville despite a speeding penalty, won Indianapolis, surged late to finish sixth in Iowa, and had a great car in Richmond before having issues late. That's a lot of different tracks, all pointing to the same thing: Wallace has pace on low banking.

Because of that, my model has Wallace at 6.0% to win, well clear of his 4.4% implied odds. That's a big enough gap to give me comfort, even knowing that I'm likely undervaluing Bell.

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Keselowski has since shortened to +400. However, even with some slipping after qualifying, Keselowski is still a value for me. I have him at 22.3% to finish top 5.)

Brad Keselowski's form is also good after he nearly wrecked Bell in an attempt to win last week. He should have a good shot at a top-five run.

Keselowski has had some of his biggest spikes on flat tracks this year. He finished top-five in Indianapolis and Iowa, and he could have won the latter if not for fuel strategy.

This is also a good track for Keselowski. He's a two-time winner here, and he has finished top-seven in both Next Gen races that didn't involve a wet-weather tire.

I have good value on Keselowski to win at +3500, so I don't mind if you want to swing for the fences. But he's 26.9% to finish top 5 for me, far enough clear of his 16.7% implied odds that I prefer the safer route.

Josh Berry to Finish Top 10 (+195)

(UPDATE: Berry has since shortened to -195. He's not a value for me at that number, though I do have a bit of value on him to win at +1400. It's not a bet I'm willing to make, personally.)

Josh Berry had the playoffs from hell, finishing last in all three opening-round races to end his pursuit of a championship. This won't be a consolation, but I do think he'll run well on Sunday.

Berry was a threat in this race last year with Stewart-Haas Racing. He finished third with a seventh-place average running position, likely his best run of the year.

The two most similar tracks to New Hampshire on the Cup schedule are Phoenix and Richmond. Berry was top-10 at both tracks earlier this year. Given how well Team Penske has run on this track type (Wood Brothers Racing is an affiliate car), I like Berry's chances of a good run even with his playoffs now over.

Chris Buescher to Finish Top 10 (+220)

(UPDATE: Buescher has since shortened to -130 to finish top 10 and is no longer a value for me.)

I don't typically regard flat tracks as Chris Buescher's forte, but he has run well enough on them to be a value at +220.

The Cup Series has run eight races on what I would deem flat tracks this year. Buescher has two top-5s and three top-10s, and he had a 10th-place average running position in one of the other races.

Although last year's race was run partially in the rain, lowering the value I place in it, it is noteworthy how well Buescher ran. He finished fifth, his first career top-10 at the track. He has had a top-15 average running position in all three New Hampshire races using the Next Gen car.

I've got Buescher at 38.4% to finish top 10, a good bit above his 31.3% implied odds. He's also a fine consideration for a top 5 at +750.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+440)

New Hampshire has been a decent track for Michael McDowell during the Next-Gen era, and he was fast on Saturday. This looks like a quality value.

In his final two races here with Front Row Motorsports, McDowell had a pair of top-15 finishes. Both were backed up by top-16 average running positions.

Flat tracks haven't been bad for McDowell this year with Spire. He was 12th at Martinsville, 17th at Richmond, and 14th at Gateway with a top-18 average running position in each of those.

On Saturday, McDowell ranked 7th in the 10-lap split of my practice model and 10th in the 20-lap version. He then backed up that speed by qualifying 11th. That boosted him to 23.1% to finish top 10 for me, a decent chunk above the market.

Post-Qualifying Addition: AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+440)

The case for AJ Allmendinger is nearly identical to that of McDowell, and his top-10 odds -- 22.0% -- closely mirror McDowell's, as well.

Allmendinger was even faster than McDowell in practice. He was 3rd and 5th in the 10- and 20-lap versions of the model, respectively. He qualified 12th, giving him easy access to the top 10.

The one downside with Allmendinger is that he hasn't been as competitive as McDowell on the flat tracks. That could mean the model is overvaluing him. But given the practice and qualifying speed, I'm willing to give him a swing despite those reservations.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.