Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the FireKeepers Casino 400 in Michigan

For the second straight week, I'm showing value in one of the favorites to win the upcoming NASCAR Cup Series race.

That last one resulted in a third-place finish; we'll hope for a two-spot improvement this time around.

The Cup Series is in Michigan this week, a place where massive speeds make equipment even more crucial than usual. The drivers I'm showing value on are all in rides that have shown top-end giddy-up this year, so I don't mind following where the model leads me.

Which drivers stand out in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400? Let's start by running through my model's sims for the race, and then we can discuss the four bets I like most prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Predictions for Michigan

NASCAR Betting Picks for Michigan

Kyle Larson to Win (+650)

Even before he was the superstar he is now, Kyle Larson dominated Michigan. I like him to get back in victory lane this week.

From 2016 to 2017, Larson won three consecutive races at this track. He hasn't won again since, but some of that is small-sample variance. The circuit has gone to this track just once per year in the four seasons Larson has been with Hendrick Motorsports.

Last year, Larson led 41 of 115 laps before getting caught up in a crash after a restart. He has won this year in Homestead and Kansas -- where speed matters -- and he won Indianapolis last year. I've got him at 15.6% to win this week, up from 13.3% implied.

Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+370)

Bubba Wallace has always run well on these big, fast tracks, including Michigan. Thus, I'm willing to back him in an upside market.

It started for Wallace back in 2019 at Indianapolis. While driving in lesser equipment for Richard Petty Motorsports, he finished third at the track, his second career top-five. He added another as the Cup Series returned to the Indy oval last year.

In three Next-Gen races at Pocono, Wallace's worst finish is 11th.

As for Michigan, Wallace nearly won here in 2022. He led 22 laps before ultimately finishing second. He also led 21 laps the following year. Last year, he qualified fifth, was fourth in the opening stage, and then got caught up in the same incident as Larson, ruining his day.

The speed has been there for Wallace this year, as evidenced by his third-place run in Homestead and sixth-place finish despite a speeding penalty last week. When you pair that with his abilities on this track type, I have Wallace at 24.4% for a top-five, up from 21.3% implied.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+800); Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+240)

Austin Cindric's speed this year has been too good for his betting odds to be this long. I think you could back him to win at +5000 even though FanDuel's higher on him there than other spots.

The Cup Series has run six races at what I would deem higher-speed, equipment-centric tracks this year. Cindric has had a top-11 average running position in four of those, and he was 15th in another. Even with underwhelming finishes, the speed has been there. He showed some upside when things broke his way with a sixth-place finish in Las Vegas.

Cindric drives for Team Penske, one of the fastest teams on the grid. He'll have the horses to keep up, and his skills seem to be on the ascent this year. The model is buying into the improvement being legit.

This is one of those spots where I'd take your typical bet size and divide it between the two markets with the larger chunk on the top-10 bet. This way, you have upside should Cindric turn that speed into a good finish. And again, I don't think an outright is out of play, especially if he drifts longer than +5000.

Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Spire Motorsports has unquestionably had speed this year, as evidenced by their qualifying results. They just have to convert that into finishes. I think the market is giving us a big enough break here for us to bet on that with Michael McDowell.

McDowell should qualify up front this week. In addition to winning the pole in Las Vegas, he was 5th in Texas, 11th in Kansas, 15th in Charlotte, and 8th in Nashville. That's our incentive to bet him now rather than waiting for qualifying.

The race pace hasn't been awful, either. McDowell managed a seventh-place finish in Charlotte, a race his teammate, Carson Hocevar, had a shot to win. Hocevar finished runner-up last week, too. Spire seems to be figuring things out.

Michigan has historically been a horror show for McDowell, potentially his worst track. That was true even last year as Front Row Motorsports unlocked more pace. Thus, I don't want to get out over my skis on McDowell at a track where he may just genuinely not be good. But due to the overall pace, my model has him at 18.4% for a top-10, up from 11.8% implied.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.